Live blog: Canada v. Sweden

Semi-final day at the World Championships, and what's not to like? Russia-USA on now, followed by Canada-Sweden (noon MDT on TSN, not rebroadcast on tape delay until 1:30 a.m. -- believe it or not TSN is showing a rebroadcast of something called the Diamond Hill Plywood 200 during late prime time, an event which will have already just been shown on TSN2 for all those NASCAR buffs in their audience. Meanwhile people with day jobs will be left in the lurch for the IIHF World Championship semi-final. Sheesh.)

I'll be watching both games live, and doing updates on the Canada game here during the intermissions, with briefer entries in the comments section during the action. Do drop in and join me there.

Quarterfinal review -- Canada 4, Latvia 2

TSN just showed a weird stat that the four quarterfinals collectively produced 0 goals in the first period and 17 in the second. Say what? I watched much of the Canada-Latvia contest on tape delay, and while it was far from Canada's best game they got the job done against a Latvian group that hung in admirably. The 48-23 margin in shots -- including 22-4 in the decisive seond period -- suggests Canada was fully deserving of their 4-2 edge on the scoreboard. The Latvians twice cut a two-goal deficit in half, and had golden opportunities to do so again late in the third when Canada ran into penalty problems for the second straight game. Of particular interest was a rare 6-on-3 advantage the Latvians enjoyed with about 4 minutes left, but Chris Mason and the Canadian penalty-killers held the fort. Major contributors were Shea Weber (26:13 TOI, 6½ minutes more than any other defenceman) and Marty St.Louis (22:09, 5 minutes more than any other forward).

Pregame -- Canada 0, Sweden 0

Unlike the other three combatants today, the Swedes have no current Oilers, but do feature Oilers past (Dick Tarnstrom) and future (Linus Omark, pictured above and at right). I caught some of Omark's flashy skills at that Millennium Place prospects camp, but nothing that foreshadowed the big splash he made this year in the SEL not to mention Youtube. Young Lee-nus has also done himself at the proud at the Worlds, where he leads the Swedes in scoring with 2-8-10.

A key player for the Swedes on the back end is the old war horse Kenny Jonsson, who logs major minutes, contributes on the scoreboard (3-3-6) and leads the tourney by a wide margin in plus/minus (+12).

Canada will continue to rely on excellent special teams, including an awesome powerplay that has been clicking at 43.9% on 18-for-41. The PK unit has been solid allowing just 4 goals on 39 opportunities (89.7%), including a couple of extended 3-on-5s and even that 3-on-6. Only Austria of all countries has a better PK rate, while Canada's PP is far ahead of the pack. Of particular interest today is Sweden, who rank middle of the pack in both categories at +8/-8.

Thanks largely to special teams and goaltending (combined .948 Sv%), Canada leads the tourney in both GF (39) and GA (12).

To paraphrase the old saw about statistics, all of the above and $7.75 will buy you a beer at Rexall Place. Or it would, if Rexall were (ahem) open for business.

***

Update: Lindy Ruff has shuffled his top two lines, moving Shane Doan on to the Spezza line and bumping Heatley to the port side. Derek Roy assumes Doan's former spot with Stamkos and St.Louis, with MSL presumably lining up on the starboard side. The explanation was that the Ottawa duo needed to be shored up defensively. That's what Doan already Was doing with the Tampa tandem. Speaks volumes about the wonderful two-way game that Marty St. Louis brings to the table, but is less complimentary of Spezza and Heatley. The one constant in all this is that whatever line Shane Doan winds up on, he will help.

Game ON.

***

First intermission -- Canada 1, Sweden 0

Terrific first period. Both teams are flying, Canada a little higher and full value for the lead. What a beautiful goal it was, with tournament scoring leader Marty St.Louis burning Mattias Weinhandl along the end wall with a quick inside move, darting behind the net and drawing Weinhandl, the front-of-net defenceman, and the goalie to their right before slipping a back feed to Derek Roy lurking at the nearside post. With no defenders in sight, Roy merely had to make a high-skill play of taking the pass off the back of the cage, pull the puck just in front of the goal line, and roof one over a lunging Gustavsson from a very sharp angle. A sweet goal, especially for me. (I have "owned" both St.Louis and Roy long-term in my keeper league hockey pool, and am a big fan of both.)

Roy was flying all period, later making a superb play to receive a wayward pass outside the blueline, cut sharply to beat his man, drive wide and slip a seeing-eye pass through to Spezza for a dangerous deflection that Gustavsson did well to stop.

At the other end Roli was suctioning up pucks, wrapping himself around them and waiting for the whistle, secure in the knowledge that Canada has 3 guys in the top 20 in faceoffs, Sweden none. A couple of nervous moments in the late going though, especially when he failed to hold a muffin with a couple of seconds left in the frame.

On the blue, the impressive Drew Doughty has been paired with another fine youngster, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, with both getting Top Four minutes while Chris Phillips has been placed with Braydon Coburn on what seems to be the third pairing. The studly Shea Weber and Dan Hamhuis are clearly the top pair.

***

Second intermission -- Canada 3, Sweden 0

The comments section is rolling now so I'll keep this brief. Things continue to go well, with rapid fire goals by Horcoff at evens followed by Roy on the PP. Roli playing well. Swedes were bringing it at the end of the period, and will have a partial PP to start the third. Huge kill required ... I don't get the sense the Swedes are done, 3-0 or no 3-0.

***

Postgame - Canada 3, Sweden 1

Objects in the mirror were much closer than they appeared, as the Swedes carried their momentum into the third, dominating play in the Canadian end for shifts at a time. The Canadians seemed a step slow to loose pucks and had a terrible time clearing the zone. Inevitably the Swedes capaitalized with a goal 6 minutes in, as the Spezza-Heatley combination got burned yet again. As PDO mentioned, that pair has been on the ice for every ES goal against but one in the tournament, as well as the 1 shortie against Latvia. Great on the powerplay but ...

The Swedes continued to bring it as my knuckles whitened. The turning point was a penalty to Roy around 9 minutes in, which the Canadians killed far more effectively than they had been killing the clock at evens. The game stabilized at that point as the Candians raised their effort to match the Swedes, winning more puck battles and earning a far better distribution of zone time. Heatley and Spezza languished on the bench for the most part, as can be seen in Lindy Ruff's distribution of ice time:

20:41 Fisher
19:22 Horcoff
16:01 Zajac
15:44 Roy
15:39 St.Louis
13:28 Lombardi, Stamkos
12:33 Doan
12:00 Upshall
10:53 Heatley
10:49 Spezza
10:36 Armstrong

While we're at it, let's look at the blue, where the new pairings achieved a clear hierarchy:

24:12 Hamhuis
23:28 Weber
22:10 Doughty
21:58 Vlasic
13:39 Coburn
12:13 Phillips
00:00 Schenn, Kwiatkowski

Any thoughts that Drew Doughty was being protected by Phillips can safely be dispelled. He has a poised all-ice game that is reminiscent of a young Raymond Bourque in that both looked completely at home in the NHL from Day One. Doughty has responded to his first World Championships by posting a creditable 8 GP, 1-6-7, +5 at age 19. Clearly Lindy Ruff likes what he sees; it's interesting to compare ice time for Doughty and fellow high draft pick (and fellow stud) Luke Schenn.

To finish the ice time review, Roloson played all 60 minutes between the pipes and delivered a strong performance with 25 stops. While Mason still has the statistical edge, Roli (2.20, .936) has faced the stronger opponents. Lindy Ruff has an interesting decision to make Sunday.

Speaking of Sunday, Oil Droppings will once against host a Game Day Thread. After an early-morning appetizer of Omark and O'Sullivan, the Gold Medal Game gets underway at half past Noon MDT. Canada-Russia, the classic rivalry, the rematch of last year's overtime thriller. The winner will be the first country to win 25 World Championships.

Canada v. Finland

***

SPOILER ALERT --
If you are planning to watch today's World Championship game on tape delay and don't want to know what happened, don't read on ... (until later please!). Thus for now I am not recording the score in the subject header, but it will be revealed in the text that follows. All I'll say about the game up top is that it was a fun game to watch.

***

Pregame -- Canada 0, Finland 0

It's been clear sailing for Canada so far at the Worlds, with an unbroken run of convincing victories. Have watched all or part of every game until yesterday's date with overmatched Norway, who did themselves proud by holding red-and-white to a modest 5-1 result. Norway scored the first meaningful goal allowed by Canada at the tourney, as it briefly tied the score midway through the first. The other 5 goals allowed by the good guys have all occurred with the team enjoying at least a 5-goal lead! This "home and cooled out" effect has resulted in some sloppy third periods, while both halves of the former Czechoslovakia significantly outshot Canada over 60 minutes. A great powerplay hides a lot of sins, but it's not all sweetness and light with Team Canada 2009.

Today's match-up with always-tough Finland is perfectly timed to give the squad a harder tune-up just before they play for keeps in the medal round. First place in Group F is on the line, as the Finns can overtake Canada by taking all 3 (!) points with a regulation win.

With the recent additions of splendid young blueliners Braydon Coburn and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Canada now has a wealth of riches on the back end. However just Travis Zajac was added up front. With the departure of James Neal due to an unfortunate eye injury, the forward ranks is down to exactly 12 players, with Ian White pencilled in as a swing man. Not sure why the team used yet a 9th defender, Joel Kwiatkowski, in a couple of preliminary games that they easily could have won shorthanded. Because they did, the club has now used the maximum 25 players and needs to stay healthy up front from here out.

Dwayne Roloson starts in goal for the biggest game of the tourney so far; the break in the rotation that saw Mason play the Norwegians yesterday appears to have been done to accommodate Roli in the #1 role. Nashville's Pekka Rinne, who this Oilers fan has seen far too much of this season already, starts for Finland.

Game on. More to come at the intermission.

***

First intermission -- Canada 1, Finland 2

Finns came out like gangbusters, more or less exactly as I had expected and hoped, and Canada was no match for them early on, as I half-expected and feared. The first 10 minutes were a fire drill and Canada had no idea of the escape routes, constantly pinning themselves in outmatched situations. The Roy-Spezza-Heatley line had a dreadful time of it, conceding both Finnish goals and a couple more chances of the Golden variety. The Finns were harder on the puck, more physical, more opportunistic, more everything. Exactly what the doctor ordered, frankly.

The red-and-white finally began to respond in the last third of the period, led by a dominant grinding shift by the Upshall-Lombardi-Armstrong trio. Upshall had a great shift, nearly scoring, decking Rinne in the crease while somehow drawing a penalty, and a scrum ensued which dispatched one more from each team to the box. The puck even wound up in the net, just after the whsitle unfortunately.

Still, that set the stage for the deadly Canadian powerplay, which clicked quickly to cut the lead in half. Spezza PP (St.Louis, Weber) has been a pretty typical outcome of a Canadian man-advantage, and it couldn't have come at a better time. The game is now stabilized with lots of time left. The Finns are continuing to bring it, but Canada is starting to match their speed and intensity.

Late in the period the Helicopter Line of Horcoff-Zajac-Fisher had an outstanding shift, with Horc making a great play to win a puck battle, slip the disc through to Zajac, and back up into perfect position for a booming one-timer which just missed the post.

So the grinders are doing their jobs, and the snipers are starting to do theirs. The defence needs to calm down a bit and stop pinching, as the Finns are clearly attacking the holes they leave behind. Roli needs to settle down a tad too, he's fighting the puck. Fortunately, he fought a few pucks to successful outcomes, by no means is the 2-1 deficit on the goaltending.

***

Second intermission -- Canada 2, Finland 3

The Finns continue to bring it, and the Canadians more than has their hands full today. TSN had the shots on net at 37-20 Finland just before the end of the period. A significant contributor that period was a series of 5 minor penalties to Canada in not much more than 10 minutes. After killing consecutive 4v5 situations, Canada got a brief powerplay that got cancelled by Doan's infraction which was apparently "two minutes for whacking at the rebound". Then Hamhuis got "two minutes for being strong on the puck", and Canada was facing an extended 3v5. A great sequence ensued with Horcoff, Weber and Vlasic playing the triangle with textbook precision.

But when Doan took yet another minor (his third, Canada's fifth of the period) the goal seemed ineveitable, and Niko Kapanen quickly made it so. That made it 3-1 late in the second. Fortunately Canada was quickly given a consolation powerplay and just as quickly converted, this time a snipe by all-time scoring leader Dany Heatley on a sweet deflection of Roy's bullet pass. That's 2-for-3 against a Finnish PK unit that entered he game at 96%.

Two incidents involving the ever-entertaining Jerkko Ruutu, both with happy outcomes. First of all Shea Weber just hammered him hard into the end boards. Ruutu went down and stayed down, apparently dead or quadriplegic, for about 1.5 seconds when he realized that Mr. Stripes wasn't buying, so he hopped to his feet and got into the play. I'm certain it hurt at least a little -- Weber really crushed him. :) Then in the dying seconds Jerkko got into it with Steven Stamkos, drawing two retaliatory shots from the youngster. Again Ruutu went down and, with the whistle already safely blown, stayed down, milking it for everything it was worth. Which turned out to be two minutes to each player. Ruutu's was for diving, a gutsy but correct call. It would seem European zebras have seen Jerkko's act before.

On to the third. Canada needs one point from this game ... tying it up and getting to overtime is all that really matters at this point. Still, would be nice to come all the way back and win it. It's a tall order, today.

***

Third intermission -- Canada 3, Finland 3

Tie is of the essence. Canada has wrapped up first in the group and a quarter final match-up with Latvia, courtesy a third powerplay goal. The Ottawa teammates who each scored earlier in the game, this time teamed up on a fine rush and pass by Spezza and solid finish by Heatley with his second goal in a row. Nervous moments at the end as Finland pulled the goalie to go for the regulation win, and even got a PP with 8 seconds to go. The PP will carry over into the immediately impending OT, but the outcome of the game is already in.

***

Postgame -- Canada 3, Finland 4 (SO)

An uptempo overtime and an entertaining shootout later, the Finns emerge the "winners" even as Canada wraps up first place. Under quirky international rules, the shootout briefly became a one-on-one between St.Louis and Ruutu. Both went 2-for-3, with each connecting on a pair of backhands before missing on the forehand. St.Louis is the only shootout specialist I'm aware of who goes to the backhand the whole way, not just at the end of a deke but carrying the puck towards the net. Finland finally put it away in the 7th round on a nifty move by Hannes Hyvönen, the 4th puck to elude Roli in the showdown.

Back to the real hockey game which preceded it, where Roli certainly did deliver the goods, stopping 47 of 50 shots. A couple of bad rebounds, and a poor puckhandling play which led to the 3-1 goal, but a whole lot of solid stops and general hanging in there under pressure. Roli's confidence grew as the game went on, as he increasingly got into the faces if not the heads of the Finnish shooters.

Canada has a wealth of riches on the blueline with several guys making their case for an Olympic spot. I expect 7 of these guys to be at Olympic camp this summer. Shea Weber is the clear #1 on this club, playing 24:31 including nearly 11 minutes in the third and 5-minute OT. His partner and Nashville teammate Dan Hamhuis also soaked up the ice time again today. Given their ongoing solid play Stevie Y & Co. will have to seriously consider them as a pair. The new additions Vlasic and Coburn formed a second effective pairing, while Chris Phillips and Drew Doughty show an effective mix of experience and exuberance. Doughty and seventh man Luke Schenn are both on the radar for 2014, but the other guys have a legitimate shot at Vancouver 2010.

Same can be said up front, where only Doan and Heatley are likely comfortable with their spot in Vancouver, but St.Louis and Spezza are proving their worth on a nightly basis in Kloten. Meanwhile, guys like Horcoff, Roy, Fisher, and Lombardi may all be vying for the same spot of 13th forward in February.

Of more immediate concern is the current tournament, where all of the above are comfortably in the top 12 and contributing to Canada's greatest strength in the international scene -- depth of talent. We got at least two teams worth of wannabe Olympians, thus can always ice a competitive team even when the European season is over and half of our teams are still involved in the Stanley Cup playoffs. It's the healthiest form of competition, where each guy makes his personal case by being a good team player.

On to the quarterfinals, where Canada faces Latvia on Thursday morning, 08:15 MDT. Not quite a bye, but by (barely) passing today's test Canada has earned an easier route in the medal round, and acquired some badly-needed battle scars in the process. An excellent dual result.

I like our chances entering the sudden death round. Then again, I say that every year. :)

Introducing: The Erstwhile Oilers

Given the absence of the Edmonton Oilers from the playoffs for a third consecutive year, I have once again taken up the bittersweet pursuit of following the Erstwhile Oilers, that group of former home-town heroes who, like Ray Whitney (pictured twice here), are contributing elsewhere. There are a few dozen Erstwhile Oilers scattered around the NHL, but come playoff time there usually seems to be just enough to fill a regulation NHL roster. So it is in 2009, where I have identified a "roster" of 25 active players with historical ties to the Oilers organization.

Here's that imaginary roster including 2008-09 stats (playoff stats through Apr 26):

Goal:

-----
T.Thomas,BOS

54 GP, 36-11-7, 2.10, .933

(4, 4-0, 1.50, .925)
T.Conklin,DET

40 GP, 25-11-2, 2.58, .909

(0, all zeroes)
S.Valiquette,NYR

15 GP, 5-5-2,,, 2.84, .907

(2, 0-0, 0.00, 1.000)

Defence:

--------
C.Pronger,ANA

82 GP, 12-36-48, EV (5, 1-1-2, +6)
J.Pitkanen,CAR

71 GP, 7-26-33,, +11(6, 0-3-3, +3)
R.Hamrlik,MTL

81 GP, 6-27-33,, +4 (4, 0-0-0, -5)
J.Hejda,CBJ

82 GP, 3-18-21,, +23(3, 0-0-0, -5)
T.Poti,WAS

52 GP, 3-10-13,, +2 (6, 2-4-6, +1)
J.Woywitka,STL

65 GP, 3-5-8,,,, +8 (4, 0-0-0, -1)

Forwards:

---------
Ra.Whitney,CAR

82 GP, 24-53-77, +2 (6, 2-4-6, -1)
J.Lupul,PHI

79 GP, 25-25-50, +1 (6, 1-1-2, +1)
B.Guerin,PIT

79 GP, 21-27-48, -12(6, 2-1-3, +3)
S.Samsonov,CAR

81 GP, 16-32-48, -8 (5, 0-1-1, EV)
E.Cole, CAR

80 GP, 18-24-42, EV (6, 0-0-0, -1)
C.Glencross,CAL

74 GP, 14-26-40, +14(5, 0-3-3, -1)
D.Cleary, DET

74 GP, 14-26-40, EV (4, 2-3-5, +6)
M.Satan,PIT

65 GP, 17-19-36, +3 (2, 0-0-0, EV)
M.Grier,S.J

62 GP, 10-13-23, +8 (5, 0-0-0, -1)
J.Chimera,CBJ

49 GP, 8-14-22,, +8 (4, 0-1-1, EV)
M.Peca,CBJ

71 GP, 4-18-22,, -6 (4, 0-0-0, +1)

B.Winchester,STL

64 GP, 13-8-21,, -1 (4, 0-0-0, -4)
R.Torres, CBJ

51 GP, 12-8-20,, -4 (4, 0-2-2, -3)
T.Marchant,ANA

72 GP, 5-13-18,, -2 (5, 0-1-1, +2)
K.Maltby, DET

78 GP, 5-6-11,,, -9 (4, 0-0-0, -2)
G.Laraque,MTL

33 GP, 0-2-2,,,, -6 (4, 0-0-0, -1)

Not the most balanced of rosters, especially up front where there are just two full-time centres in Peca and Marchant; so happens that Arnott, Weight, Stoll, Reasoner and Comrie all missed the playoffs this season. No Smytty either. Such is the nature of the "filter"; these aren't the best of the ex-OIlers, merely the ones who have played (or at least dressed) in the post-season. Which, of course, is more than one can say about any current Oilers.

I'm sure I missed a couple along the way, especially of the Tim Thomas type, who was Edmonton property for a time without ever playing an NHL game for the Oil. Please post any names that come to mind in the comments section.

Only the Devils, Canucks and Hawks don't have any ex-Oilers, while the Hurricanes and Scott Howson's Blue Jackets each have 4.

While the list speaks for itself, I certainly do not mean to imply that all of these guys moving on represent mistakes by Oilers management; indeed several of them were moved for each other so there is no way we could have kept all of them. Of particular note is the sequence Woywitka-begat-Pronger-begat-Lupul-begat-Pitkanen-begat-Cole-begat-O'Sullivan, all trades which have occurred since the lockout. All but Woywitka (who is standing in for the injured Eric Brewer) were the primary player in their respective trades both coming and going. The key point seems to be the Oilers have never been able to stabilize what should be an important asset, with each guy arriving with high expectations but moving on to greener pastures after a year or even less. Need I add, all but O'Sullivan have played in the 2009 post-season.

I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to establish imaginary line combinations for the Erstwhile Oilers, such as the Pennies-on-the-Dollar Line of Whitney, Satan and Chimera ...

Canada 6, Belarus 1 -- a good start

Team Canada 2009 took to the ice earlier today in Kloten, Switzerland. The club had no opportunity for exhibition games, but the opening preliminary round match against Belarus was pretty much that. The squad, ably coached by Lindy Ruff, Barry Trotz and Dave Tippett, played a pretty solid all-around game, all things considered.

The success formula for Canada or pretty much any club at this tourney is to build cohesiveness through the early rounds and peak for the medal round. The early games are generally against inferior opponents and tend to be sloppy affairs. That was less true than usual today, as Canada jumped out to an early 2-0 lead courtesy a pair of goals by Steven Stamkos, and held that modest lead through 40 minutes before exploding for 4 goals in the third to put it away.

While at first glance the current squad appears underwhelming, Canada's depth is such that we always have a respectable team with a fighing chance of taking home the gold (5 of the last 15). I see no reason why the current group shouldn't aspire to that, especially with a couple of spots held open for reinforcements.

Today's lines were as follows:

1. D. Roy - J. Spezza - D. Heatley

For obvious reasons the coaches stuck with pairs of teammates when possible. The Ottawa pair showed their chemistry in the third when they combined for three goals, with each finishing the night +3 with 3 points. Best of the lot was the one Spezza literally stuck in the roof of the net after Heatley froze the defence with a fake shot before slipping it through. Roy, playing out of position, did OK, but I have half a mind he's just a placeholder for Rick Nash if he's healthy enough to come over.

2. M. St.Louis - S. Stamkos - S. Doan

Stamkos turned the corner on his rookie season around the time St.Louis was put on his line, noching 17 goals in his last 28 games after just 6 in his first 51. According to HockeyAnalysis.com the pair played 230 minutes together, scoring at a rate of 1.474 GF per 20 minutes. When apart Stamkos recorded just 0.540 GF/20. We saw that chemistry seconds into their first shift when Stamkos converted MSL's bullet feed across the goal mouth into the early lead. Doan provides a perfect complement with his gritty two-way play and broad international experience.

3. M. Lombardi - S. Horcoff - S. Upshall

Finally pencilled in at what some would call his "natural" spot of 3C, Horcoff nonetheless led all Canadian fowards with 18:20 TOI, almost 3 minutes more than the next guy, his linemate Lombardi. Horc was first choice in the long 3v5 Canada killed in the second and a major contributor to the PK unit generally. Like Roy, Lombardi is a centre forced out to the wing. Wild card here is Upshall, who lit it up in Phoenix after a mostly desultory year in Philadelphia.

4. J. Neal - M. Fisher - C. Armstrong

Fantastic looking crash line, three guys with no little skill that skate hard both ways carrying a chip on their shoulder. Fisher absolutely crushed one poor Belarussian with a wicked shoulder check. The line also chipped in with a goal on a fine three-way passing play. These guys are going to be fun to watch.

1. D. Hamhuis - S. Weber

Talented young pairing with buckets of international experience. They look like a natural pair with a righty and a lefty but mostly play with separate partners in Nashville (Hamhuis-Zanon; Weber-Suter). Still seemed to know each other pretty well, playing a solid, assertive and coordinated game.

2. C. Phillips - D. Doughty

Although they had couple of rocky moments, the veteran shutdown man Phillips would seem to be a perfect complement for the talented Doughty, one of three teenaged Canadians who was picked at last June's draft. Doughty combined with his fellow top pick Stamkos on a beauty give-and-go that resulted in the game winning goal.

3. I. White - L. Schenn

One wouldn't expect this to be a regular pair in the NHL for a couple of reasons, but to my surprise the two righties played over 266 minutes together this year. Truth be told, I'm a little baffled as to White's presence on the team -- he's the one guy in the group who doesn't appear to have top pairing potential -- but he's a mobile puck mover whose defensive game needs a little less work than it used to. Schenn is an absolute beauty of a young shutdown defender who accomplished the difficult feat of continuing to impress me this season despite playing for the Leafs.

G - D. Roloson

Roli was in fine fettle, even hit a fungo midway through the game. Got away with one puckhandling blunder late in the first when he stumbled into the net and knocked it loose just as Grabovski was depositing the gift, and even though it was a defensive player responsible IIHF rules disallowed the goal. In the second Roloson made a sensational two-pad stack on a fine rush by Grabovski to hold the lead at 2-0, but later bled a fat rebound to the same Grabovski -- by FAR the best Belarussian -- to lose his shutout late in the third. Looked rested and focussed.

Josh Harding backed up this game, but with Chris Mason en route we probably won't get a look at the Wild young backup who many favour as a possible answer in the Oilers' crease. Or maybe Harding will get a token game against Canada's next opponent, overmatched Hungary playing in the A Pool for the first time since 1939. That'll be on the tube Sunday afternoon for those who want to see different coloured unis and a probable butt-kicking. I'll be out of town for that one, but otherwise will be following Team Canada's progress here on Oil Droppings, including live blogs for the big games in the medal round. Those of you who are following the tournament (or who can't due to its often-inconvenient game times), do drop in!

Team Togetherness

Some interesting quotes in today's news cycle:


"We need a new voice, we need a new start, we need new expectations, we need a new discipline, and it’s time to look forward here."

 Steve Tambellini, on expectations
***

"Mac really thought he couldn’t do any more with the group."

 Kevin Lowe, on accountability
[note how it is “the” group and not “our” group let alone “my” group]
***

"The thing that was maybe most disappointing for me was our culture took a hit, in terms of our work ethic and our selflessness."

 Craig MacTavish, on professionalism
***

"I’m always proud of the way I play, I’m always proud of the way I prepare and proud of the way I carry myself."

 Ethan Moreau, on himself
***

"If you’re in the NHL, if you want to have a good career, you should be able to motivate yourself."

 Ethan Moreau, on others
***

"We have some good veterans that hopefully want to be a part of this going forward. But I can tell you things are going to change as far as expectations and preparation from the players’ standpoint."

 Steve Tambellini, on the future
***

"We got behind the 8-ball right away, we took an undisciplined penalty. I love Scottie Hartnell’s emotion but he’s got to find that line of discipline and I don’t really think he did tonight. He’s a guy we count on to kill penalties, he’s a guy we count on a lot. ... He ends up in the penalty box way too much and that’s something we’re going to have to correct."

 John Stevens, coach of an actual playoff team, on Real accountability

The missing link

I know the pieces fit cuz I watched them tumble down

No fault, none to blame it doesn't mean I don't desire to

Point the finger, blame the other, watch the temple topple over

To bring the pieces back together, rediscover communication

Tool -- Schism

*****

I cited this tune over at Lowetide's place the other day, finding some of Maynard James Keenan's lyrics resonated with the (hotly-denied!) reports of a rift in the Oilers' room and with the state of the roster in general. Rather than dally with the rumours or try to divine the true intelligence behind Ethan Moreau's remarks, I focussed on matters of record, namely birth certificates. These reveal a stunning gap where the heart of the roster should be. To recap the findings of my previous post, here are Oilers players and GP by age group through 78 games in 2008-09:

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... AvGP .. %team
----------------------------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 61 ..... 61 ..... 4%
33-35 ..... 3 .... 217 ..... 72 .... 15%
30-32 ..... 8 .... 332 ..... 42 .... 22%
27-29 ..... 1 ..... 20 ..... 20 ..... 1%
24-26 ..... 9 .... 443 ..... 49 .... 30%
21-23 .... 10 .... 343 ..... 34 .... 23%
18-20 ..... 1 ..... 72 ..... 72 ..... 5%
----------------------------------------
Total .... 33 ... 1488 ..... 45 ... 100%

I have added two columns. The first is simply the average number of GP for players in the given age group; the second expresses the percentage of team GP for each age group. Here's a crude graph showing that % of GP distribution, featuring a very odd double-peaked curve.


That looks not so much like a team, but two different ones.

Comparison is the next stage of the analysis; it is obvious at first glance that the current age distribution is out of the ordinary, but how much so? Surely the place to start is with the '05-06 Oilers, the last time we know the pieces fit. Here was the distribution by age of the House of Cards that Kevin Built.

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... AvGP .. %team
----------------------------------------
36-39 ..... 2 ..... 56 ..... 28 ..... 4%
33-35 ..... 2 ..... 43 ..... 22 ..... 3%
30-32 ..... 9 .... 536 ..... 60 .... 34%
27-29 ..... 9 .... 472 ..... 52 .... 30%
24-26 ..... 7 .... 235 ..... 33 .... 15%
21-23 ..... 6 .... 204 ..... 34 .... 13%
18-20 ..... 3 ..... 25 ...... 8 ..... 2%
----------------------------------------
Total .... 38 ... 1571 ..... 41 ... 100%

In each column there's a fairly normal Bell curve with a single peak. Almost half (18 of 38, or 47%) of the players who suited up for the Oil during that chaotic season were between 27 and 32; moreover the same group played more games per player than the other groups; combine the two and the 27-to-32-year olds played fully 64% of the games. It's an interesting contrast to 2008-09, where not only is that huge hole at the age 27-29 level, but the distribution within groups is strange. Players over 33 averaged 70 GP; those between 27-32 averaged just 39. In 2008-09 the 27-32 y.o. group comprised just 27% of the full roster and played only 23% of the games. Let's compare the two graphically, with the 2005-06 Oilers represented in copper, the '08-09 squad in blue.


There are superficial similarities between the central curve of the '05-06 Oilers and the younger lobe of the current version, but there is a 5-year difference in maturity. More generally, the above starkly demonstrates the '08-09 Oilers have far more players near the beginning or end of their careers, while the '05-06 club had a critical mass of players near their peak.

Of course the 2005-06 regular season Oilers that stumbled and bumbled their way to 8th place was different from the leaner version that was wildly successful in that same post-season. Some guys were traded off mid-season; others who had a cup o' coffee at some point were out of the mix come playoff time, as was the case with all three 20-year-olds (Pouliot, Jacques, Syvret).

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... %team
--------------------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 18 ...... 4%
33-35 ..... 1 ..... 24 ...... 5%
30-32 ..... 9 .... 169 ..... 37%
27-29 ..... 8 .... 130 ..... 28%
24-26 ..... 4 ..... 74 ..... 16%
21-23 ..... 2 ..... 42 ...... 9%
18-20 ..... 0 ...... 0 ...... 0%
--------------------------------
Total .... 25 .... 457 .... 100%

The 27-32 y.o. set comprised 68% of the active players and played 65% of the games, while the under-24s played an even smaller role with only Hemsky and Greene getting a sniff of playoff action. I won't show a graph, which varies but little between regular season and playoffs. I have noted for future reference that playoff rosters might provide a more streamlined methodology, a little less clutter with fewer players and a more constant "best possible" line-up. Of course, for that method to work the team in question has to actually make the @#$%^&* playoffs.

Which brings us back to 2008-09, where it's instructive to compare the Oilers with the competition. I'm using brute force, not code, so won't do the whole league. Let's just compare with geographic rivals and Northwest Division co-leaders Calgary and Vancouver. Here I have reduced each team to just the number of players in each age category, and the percentage of GP for each group.

Age ..... Edmonton .. Vancouver .. Calgary
Group ... # / %team . # / %team . # / %team
-------------------------------------------
36-39 ... 1 // 4% ... 1 // 3% ... 1 // 5%
33-35 ... 3 / 15% ... 3 // 8% ... 3 / 12%
30-32 ... 8 / 22% ... 3 / 14% ... 6 / 23%
27-29 ... 1 // 1% .. 13 / 38% ... 6 / 20%
24-26 ... 9 / 30% ... 5 / 16% .. 11 / 30%
21-23 .. 10 / 23% ... 7 / 21% ... 5 / 11%
18-20 ... 1 // 5% ... 0 // 0% ... 0 // 0%
-------------------------------------------
Total .. 33 /100% .. 32 /100% .. 32 /100%

The Oilers have gotten more GP out of guys 33 and older than either rival, and more GP from guys 23 and younger. In the middle both divisional rivals far outstrip the Oilers; note the 13 players Vancouver has used in the 27-29 group, compared to Edmonton's 1. Calgary's curve peaks a little younger, but fully 73% of their games have been played by players aged 24-32, compared to 68% for Vancouver and just 53% for Edmonton. Here's a graph showing Vancouver in green, Calgary in red, Edmonton in blue.

Next year Dustin Penner and Tom Gilbert -- dangerously assuming either is still around -- will turn 27; Pouliot, Jacques, Stortini, Reddox and O'Sullivan all "graduate" to age 24, and their whole generation of players will be one year older and presumably better. At the same time, Sheldon Souray, Lubo Visnovsky, and Fernando Pisani all turn 33, Steve Staios turns 36, and lest we forget, Dwayne Roloson turns 40. Whatever the validity of my artificial brackets, it's pretty tough to argue those guys on the far side of 30 will be getting much better; they'll just be getting older. The wheel of time keeps turning, but given the void of players cycling through the top of the career curve ours seems to be missing an axle.

It is incumbent on Oilers management to address this gaping hole in the coming l-o-n-g off-season. Such a hole cannot be readily filled from within.

A room divided?

In 2006 the Oilers made a thrilling run to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. It was a veteran group: 19 of the 25 players who dressed during the playoff run were aged 27 or older, the other 6 age 25 or younger.

Fast forward three years, and just 6 players remain from that Cinderella crew. 5 of them were, and remain, veterans: Dwayne Roloson, age* 39; Steve Staios, 35; Ethan Moreau, 33; Fernando Pisani, 32; Shawn Horcoff, 30. Of the youngsters, only the enigmatic Ales Hemsky, now 25, remains an Oiler.

( * - "hockey age" as of Feb 1, as per Hockey-Reference.com)

Brad Winchester and Marc-Andre Bergeron were in the pressbox during those Stanley Cup Finals and were gone within a year. Of the four key youngsters of that run, last summer's trades of Raffi Torres (now 27), Jarret Stoll (26) and Matt Greene (25) gutted the squad of three of them. One of the departed players was moved for yet another unproven youngster, the other two netted a valuable but now injured veteran. Whatever the return, what was lost was an important link between the older and younger members of the team.

The 2008-09 Oilers are rumoured to be a fractured squad, with a significant group of 30-something vets, a larger group of youngsters with collectively little success in their pro careers, and not much in between to bridge the gap. Here's a breakdown of the 33 players who have suited up for Oil this season:

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP
----------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 61
33-35 ..... 3 .... 217
30-32 ..... 8 .... 332
27-29 ... 1 ... 20
24-26 ..... 9 .... 443
21-23 .... 10 .... 343
18-20 ..... 1 ..... 72

----------------------

Total .... 33 ... 1488

That's right, a great big hole right in the centre of the Bell curve, which even the gigantic Steve MacIntyre cannot begin to fill. Other than SMac and his 67 minutes of ice time, there's not a single player on the roster in the prime age bracket of 27-29.

And when the likes of Ethan Moreau -- or Craig MacTavish for that matter -- looks around the room, he sees a bunch of 30-something guys who have been through the wars, many of them together, and then a bunch of youngsters whose history with the Oilers is one of failure. Is it any wonder there are rumours of a disconnect in the room?