Showing posts with label Lowe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lowe. Show all posts

2009-05-27

The Old Boys Club is Dead. Long Live the Program of Excellence!


Steve Tambellini has returned to his roots, which seem to be as deeply entangled in Hockey Canada as in Vancouver. Yesterday's double-hiring of Pat Quinn and Tom Renney provides the Oilers with a fabulous wealth of coaching experience at both the NHL level and across the international spectrum.

Ever the optimist, I would have found a reason to support, at least on a 60/40 basis, the hiring of either Quinn or Renney to the job. The creativity and flexibility shown by all sides to add both, has my 120% support. Coaching will not be a weakness for the Edmonton Oilers.

Pat Quinn may never have won a Stanley Cup, but in the current decade he has captured Gold Medals at the Olympic Games, the World Cup of Hockey, the Spengler Cup, the World Under-18 Championships and the World Junior Championships, a collection of goldware that almost certainly will never be duplicated.

Particularly encouraging is Quinn's recent success connecting with youngsters, including Oilers prospect Jordan Eberle who has already won two championships under Quinn's guidance. Not sure how those experiences will colour the Irishman's known preference for veterans, established in other times under other circumstances, primarily in big-budget markets in the pre-cap era, and mostly with Quinn acting as his own GM. That whole landscape has changed. Quinn -- who has posted an above-.500 record in 13 of his 14 complete seasons and made the playoffs in all but two of those seasons, winning 17 series -- wouldn't have survived this long if he wasn't adaptable.

I very much like the idea of a strong associate coach, especially given the established weaknesses of the new head man on the technical side of the game. Such an arrangement worked fine with Glen Sather and John Muckler. Renney has strong credentials as a head man -- post lockout his Rangers won 42+ games and made the playoffs every year, while he compiled an less-impressive-than-it-looks-but-still-pretty-darn-good 159-106-42 mark with what always seemed to me middling talent. He has experienced the constraints of the cap era including a few millstone contracts, and has consistently delivered competitive teams.

Critical to all this is what appears at this distance to be a complete absence of ego on Renney's part. After two years as a head coach in Kamloops, where he posted the best career Pts% (.714) in WHL history, Renney became head coach for the Canadian national men's team, a group he guided within a Peter Forsberg/Tommy Salo highlight reel of the gold medal in Lillehamer 1994. A couple of months later, Renney agreed to serve as assistant coach to George Kingston at the World Championships, and the pair successfully oversaw Canada's first gold medal in 33 years. A lesser man might have seen it as a demotion, a slap in the face even, but Tom Renney put that aside, answered the call, and delivered the goods.

Renney has continued to serve his country in a variety of roles at no fewer than 10 (ten) World Championships, compiling 3 gold, 3 silver and 2 bronze. He also won silver at the 1999 World Juniors, losing the gold medal game in overtime. On the senior level he has appeared to transition seamlessly from head man (1995, 1996, 2000) to assistant, and has in fact achieved his greatest team successes (the golds) in the latter role. With a track record like this I have no problem envisioning Renney stepping up to -- but not overstepping -- a strong associate coach role.

Certainly between them Quinn and Renney have won everything worth winning on the international level. Quinn won the Memorial Cup as a player, Renney as a coach. Both are proven winners, yet share the same gaping hole on the resume, the Stanley Cup. If that fact -- more an historical oversight than a blemish -- serves to drive them through the gruelling days and nights of the long seasons ahead, so much the better.

The whole thing hinges on teamwork among the triumvirate that unquestionably now runs the Oilers. As Renney must support, advise and ultimately defer to Quinn, so must the Irishman himself defer to Steve Tambellini. It's his former protégé's job to have the overarching vision, and the coaches' to implement it. That said, I suspect Tambellini's and Quinn's Idealized Roster Manuals already share many of the same pages.

Steve Tambellini has won the Stanley Cup as a player (see picture), but his roots are also firmly established in the international game. He represented Canada on the ice at the World Juniors, World Seniors, and Olympic Games, and has since served Hockey Canada at the management level for those same competitions. As a player he was a participant (one bronze); as a manager, a winner. As Quinn's best success occurred when he was head coach with strong assistants (just say no to Ricky Ley), and Renney's occurred when he was an assistant on a strong staff, Steve Tambellini has had his best success as a manager with a strong coaching staff. Lo and behold, that is the position that each now occupies with the Oilers.

Speaking of roots, some of them can get pretty tangled. Check out this Hockey Canada news release from March 2005:

CALGARY –Tom Renney, Head Coach and Vice President of Player Development of the New York Rangers, and Craig MacTavish, Head Coach of the Edmonton Oilers, have been named Team Canada’s assistant coaches for the 2005 IIHF Men’s World Hockey Championship, Team Canada’s General Manager Steve Tambellini announced on Thursday.

***

It's hard to put Kevin Lowe's fingerprints on the departures of Craig MacTavish and Charlie Huddy, in fact so little has been seen of K-Lowe that it seems safe to conclude that he too is now at arm's length and the Old Boys Club is officially histoire. All that remains of the old guard is Kelly Buchberger, who spent more time as MacT's winger than he did his assistant coach. As I (ever the optimist) wrote in defence of Bucky yesterday over at Lowetide's place:

As for Buchberger, I understand the frustration but as was the case when he was a young player, patience is key. When he broke in he was like Zack Stortini was two years ago, all warts and rough edges. The object of no little derision especially at first, Bucky worked harder than anybody, soaked up information like a sponge, and drove the twin engines of heart and desire to capacity on a daily basis. He was, and presumably remains, the ultimate team player. As a coach he perhaps achieved better results in Springfield than it seemed at the time, and who knows what he did or didn't accomplish last year. He's clearly the #3 man on the new totem pole, which is fine by me. If he had somehow been given the head job, that wouldn't have been fine at all, but the current situation calls for a little mortar between the bricks which is a role Kelly understands well. It's a hell of a learning opportunity for a young coach to put it mildly. I wish him well.

Finally, I also wish nothing but the best to outgoing coaches Charlie Huddy and Billy Moores as well as Craig MacTavish. While MacT's time had come, I'm less sure about Huddy and Moores who were caught in the crossfire of change. Both have been fixtures on the Edmonton hockey scene for three decades, with Huddy winning 5 Stanley Cups as a player for the Oilers, Moores 5 national titles as a head and assistant coach with the Golden Bears. Both came within a hair (pardon the pun) of adding a Stanley Cup as a coach in 2006. That near miss notwithstanding, both men are winners, and both men are class acts. Like MacT, they will be both missed and remembered fondly. For what it's worth, one Edmonton-area hockey fan of long standing says Thank You.

2009-04-16

Team Togetherness


Some interesting quotes in today's news cycle:


"We need a new voice, we need a new start, we need new expectations, we need a new discipline, and it’s time to look forward here."

Steve Tambellini, on expectations
***


"Mac really thought he couldn’t do any more with the group."

Kevin Lowe, on accountability
[note how it is “the” group and not “our” group let alone “my” group]
***

"The thing that was maybe most disappointing for me was our culture took a hit, in terms of our work ethic and our selflessness."

Craig MacTavish, on professionalism
***

"I’m always proud of the way I play, I’m always proud of the way I prepare and proud of the way I carry myself."

Ethan Moreau, on himself
***

"If you’re in the NHL, if you want to have a good career, you should be able to motivate yourself."


Ethan Moreau, on others
***


"We have some good veterans that hopefully want to be a part of this going forward. But I can tell you things are going to change as far as expectations and preparation from the players’ standpoint."

Steve Tambellini, on the future
***

"We got behind the 8-ball right away, we took an undisciplined penalty. I love Scottie Hartnell’s emotion but he’s got to find that line of discipline and I don’t really think he did tonight. He’s a guy we count on to kill penalties, he’s a guy we count on a lot. ... He ends up in the penalty box way too much and that’s something we’re going to have to correct."

John Stevens, coach of an actual playoff team, on Real accountability

2009-04-08

The missing link


I know the pieces fit cuz I watched them tumble down
No fault, none to blame it doesn't mean I don't desire to
Point the finger, blame the other, watch the temple topple over
To bring the pieces back together, rediscover communication

Tool -- Schism
*****

I cited this tune over at Lowetide's place the other day, finding some of Maynard James Keenan's lyrics resonated with the (hotly-denied!) reports of a rift in the Oilers' room and with the state of the roster in general. Rather than dally with the rumours or try to divine the true intelligence behind Ethan Moreau's remarks, I focussed on matters of record, namely birth certificates. These reveal a stunning gap where the heart of the roster should be. To recap the findings of my previous post, here are Oilers players and GP by age group through 78 games in 2008-09:

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... AvGP .. %team
----------------------------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 61 ..... 61 ..... 4%
33-35 ..... 3 .... 217 ..... 72 .... 15%
30-32 ..... 8 .... 332 ..... 42 .... 22%
27-29 ..... 1 ..... 20 ..... 20 ..... 1%
24-26 ..... 9 .... 443 ..... 49 .... 30%
21-23 .... 10 .... 343 ..... 34 .... 23%
18-20 ..... 1 ..... 72 ..... 72 ..... 5%

----------------------------------------
Total .... 33 ... 1488 ..... 45 ... 100%

I have added two columns. The first is simply the average number of GP for players in the given age group; the second expresses the percentage of team GP for each age group. Here's a crude graph showing that % of GP distribution, featuring a very odd double-peaked curve.


That looks not so much like a team, but two different ones.

Comparison is the next stage of the analysis; it is obvious at first glance that the current age distribution is out of the ordinary, but how much so? Surely the place to start is with the '05-06 Oilers, the last time we know the pieces fit. Here was the distribution by age of the House of Cards that Kevin Built.


Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... AvGP .. %team
----------------------------------------
36-39 ..... 2 ..... 56 ..... 28 ..... 4%
33-35 ..... 2 ..... 43 ..... 22 ..... 3%
30-32 ..... 9 .... 536 ..... 60 .... 34%
27-29 ..... 9 .... 472 ..... 52 .... 30%
24-26 ..... 7 .... 235 ..... 33 .... 15%
21-23 ..... 6 .... 204 ..... 34 .... 13%
18-20 ..... 3 ..... 25 ...... 8 ..... 2%
----------------------------------------
Total .... 38 ... 1571 ..... 41 ... 100%

In each column there's a fairly normal Bell curve with a single peak. Almost half (18 of 38, or 47%) of the players who suited up for the Oil during that chaotic season were between 27 and 32; moreover the same group played more games per player than the other groups; combine the two and the 27-to-32-year olds played fully 64% of the games. It's an interesting contrast to 2008-09, where not only is that huge hole at the age 27-29 level, but the distribution within groups is strange. Players over 33 averaged 70 GP; those between 27-32 averaged just 39. In 2008-09 the 27-32 y.o. group comprised just 27% of the full roster and played only 23% of the games. Let's compare the two graphically, with the 2005-06 Oilers represented in copper, the '08-09 squad in blue.


There are superficial similarities between the central curve of the '05-06 Oilers and the younger lobe of the current version, but there is a 5-year difference in maturity. More generally, the above starkly demonstrates the '08-09 Oilers have far more players near the beginning or end of their careers, while the '05-06 club had a critical mass of players near their peak.

Of course the 2005-06 regular season Oilers that stumbled and bumbled their way to 8th place was different from the leaner version that was wildly successful in that same post-season. Some guys were traded off mid-season; others who had a cup o' coffee at some point were out of the mix come playoff time, as was the case with all three 20-year-olds (Pouliot, Jacques, Syvret).

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... %team
--------------------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 18 ...... 4%
33-35 ..... 1 ..... 24 ...... 5%
30-32 ..... 9 .... 169 ..... 37%
27-29 ..... 8 .... 130 ..... 28%
24-26 ..... 4 ..... 74 ..... 16%
21-23 ..... 2 ..... 42 ...... 9%
18-20 ..... 0 ...... 0 ...... 0%
--------------------------------
Total .... 25 .... 457 .... 100%

The 27-32 y.o. set comprised 68% of the active players and played 65% of the games, while the under-24s played an even smaller role with only Hemsky and Greene getting a sniff of playoff action. I won't show a graph, which varies but little between regular season and playoffs. I have noted for future reference that playoff rosters might provide a more streamlined methodology, a little less clutter with fewer players and a more constant "best possible" line-up. Of course, for that method to work the team in question has to actually make the @#$%^&* playoffs.

Which brings us back to 2008-09, where it's instructive to compare the Oilers with the competition. I'm using brute force, not code, so won't do the whole league. Let's just compare with geographic rivals and Northwest Division co-leaders Calgary and Vancouver. Here I have reduced each team to just the number of players in each age category, and the percentage of GP for each group.

Age ..... Edmonton .. Vancouver .. Calgary
Group ... # / %team . # / %team . # / %team
-------------------------------------------
36-39 ... 1 // 4% ... 1 // 3% ... 1 // 5%
33-35 ... 3 / 15% ... 3 // 8% ... 3 / 12%
30-32 ... 8 / 22% ... 3 / 14% ... 6 / 23%
27-29 ... 1 // 1% .. 13 / 38% ... 6 / 20%
24-26 ... 9 / 30% ... 5 / 16% .. 11 / 30%
21-23 .. 10 / 23% ... 7 / 21% ... 5 / 11%
18-20 ... 1 // 5% ... 0 // 0% ... 0 // 0%
-------------------------------------------
Total .. 33 /100% .. 32 /100% .. 32 /100%

The Oilers have gotten more GP out of guys 33 and older than either rival, and more GP from guys 23 and younger. In the middle both divisional rivals far outstrip the Oilers; note the 13 players Vancouver has used in the 27-29 group, compared to Edmonton's 1. Calgary's curve peaks a little younger, but fully 73% of their games have been played by players aged 24-32, compared to 68% for Vancouver and just 53% for Edmonton. Here's a graph showing Vancouver in green, Calgary in red, Edmonton in blue.

Next year Dustin Penner and Tom Gilbert -- dangerously assuming either is still around -- will turn 27; Pouliot, Jacques, Stortini, Reddox and O'Sullivan all "graduate" to age 24, and their whole generation of players will be one year older and presumably better. At the same time, Sheldon Souray, Lubo Visnovsky, and Fernando Pisani all turn 33, Steve Staios turns 36, and lest we forget, Dwayne Roloson turns 40. Whatever the validity of my artificial brackets, it's pretty tough to argue those guys on the far side of 30 will be getting much better; they'll just be getting older. The wheel of time keeps turning, but given the void of players cycling through the top of the career curve ours seems to be missing an axle.

It is incumbent on Oilers management to address this gaping hole in the coming l-o-n-g off-season. Such a hole cannot be readily filled from within.

2009-04-04

A room divided?


In 2006 the Oilers made a thrilling run to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. It was a veteran group: 19 of the 25 players who dressed during the playoff run were aged 27 or older, the other 6 age 25 or younger.

Fast forward three years, and just 6 players remain from that Cinderella crew. 5 of them were, and remain, veterans: Dwayne Roloson, age* 39; Steve Staios, 35; Ethan Moreau, 33; Fernando Pisani, 32; Shawn Horcoff, 30. Of the youngsters, only the enigmatic Ales Hemsky, now 25, remains an Oiler.

( * - "hockey age" as of Feb 1, as per Hockey-Reference.com)

Brad Winchester and Marc-Andre Bergeron were in the pressbox during those Stanley Cup Finals and were gone within a year. Of the four key youngsters of that run, last summer's trades of Raffi Torres (now 27), Jarret Stoll (26) and Matt Greene (25) gutted the squad of three of them. One of the departed players was moved for yet another unproven youngster, the other two netted a valuable but now injured veteran. Whatever the return, what was lost was an important link between the older and younger members of the team.

The 2008-09 Oilers are rumoured to be a fractured squad, with a significant group of 30-something vets, a larger group of youngsters with collectively little success in their pro careers, and not much in between to bridge the gap. Here's a breakdown of the 33 players who have suited up for Oil this season:

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP
----------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 61
33-35 ..... 3 .... 217
30-32 ..... 8 .... 332
27-29 ... 1 ... 20
24-26 ..... 9 .... 443
21-23 .... 10 .... 343
18-20 ..... 1 ..... 72
----------------------
Total .... 33 ... 1488

That's right, a great big hole right in the centre of the Bell curve, which even the gigantic Steve MacIntyre cannot begin to fill. Other than SMac and his 67 minutes of ice time, there's not a single player on the roster in the prime age bracket of 27-29.

And when the likes of Ethan Moreau -- or Craig MacTavish for that matter -- looks around the room, he sees a bunch of 30-something guys who have been through the wars, many of them together, and then a bunch of youngsters whose history with the Oilers is one of failure. Is it any wonder there are rumours of a disconnect in the room?