The Old Boys Club is Dead. Long Live the Program of Excellence!

Steve Tambellini has returned to his roots, which seem to be as deeply entangled in Hockey Canada as in Vancouver. Yesterday's double-hiring of Pat Quinn and Tom Renney provides the Oilers with a fabulous wealth of coaching experience at both the NHL level and across the international spectrum.

Ever the optimist, I would have found a reason to support, at least on a 60/40 basis, the hiring of either Quinn or Renney to the job. The creativity and flexibility shown by all sides to add both, has my 120% support. Coaching will not be a weakness for the Edmonton Oilers.

Pat Quinn may never have won a Stanley Cup, but in the current decade he has captured Gold Medals at the Olympic Games, the World Cup of Hockey, the Spengler Cup, the World Under-18 Championships and the World Junior Championships, a collection of goldware that almost certainly will never be duplicated.

Particularly encouraging is Quinn's recent success connecting with youngsters, including Oilers prospect Jordan Eberle who has already won two championships under Quinn's guidance. Not sure how those experiences will colour the Irishman's known preference for veterans, established in other times under other circumstances, primarily in big-budget markets in the pre-cap era, and mostly with Quinn acting as his own GM. That whole landscape has changed. Quinn -- who has posted an above-.500 record in 13 of his 14 complete seasons and made the playoffs in all but two of those seasons, winning 17 series -- wouldn't have survived this long if he wasn't adaptable.

I very much like the idea of a strong associate coach, especially given the established weaknesses of the new head man on the technical side of the game. Such an arrangement worked fine with Glen Sather and John Muckler. Renney has strong credentials as a head man -- post lockout his Rangers won 42+ games and made the playoffs every year, while he compiled an less-impressive-than-it-looks-but-still-pretty-darn-good 159-106-42 mark with what always seemed to me middling talent. He has experienced the constraints of the cap era including a few millstone contracts, and has consistently delivered competitive teams.

Critical to all this is what appears at this distance to be a complete absence of ego on Renney's part. After two years as a head coach in Kamloops, where he posted the best career Pts% (.714) in WHL history, Renney became head coach for the Canadian national men's team, a group he guided within a Peter Forsberg/Tommy Salo highlight reel of the gold medal in Lillehamer 1994. A couple of months later, Renney agreed to serve as assistant coach to George Kingston at the World Championships, and the pair successfully oversaw Canada's first gold medal in 33 years. A lesser man might have seen it as a demotion, a slap in the face even, but Tom Renney put that aside, answered the call, and delivered the goods.

Renney has continued to serve his country in a variety of roles at no fewer than 10 (ten) World Championships, compiling 3 gold, 3 silver and 2 bronze. He also won silver at the 1999 World Juniors, losing the gold medal game in overtime. On the senior level he has appeared to transition seamlessly from head man (1995, 1996, 2000) to assistant, and has in fact achieved his greatest team successes (the golds) in the latter role. With a track record like this I have no problem envisioning Renney stepping up to -- but not overstepping -- a strong associate coach role.

Certainly between them Quinn and Renney have won everything worth winning on the international level. Quinn won the Memorial Cup as a player, Renney as a coach. Both are proven winners, yet share the same gaping hole on the resume, the Stanley Cup. If that fact -- more an historical oversight than a blemish -- serves to drive them through the gruelling days and nights of the long seasons ahead, so much the better.

The whole thing hinges on teamwork among the triumvirate that unquestionably now runs the Oilers. As Renney must support, advise and ultimately defer to Quinn, so must the Irishman himself defer to Steve Tambellini. It's his former protégé's job to have the overarching vision, and the coaches' to implement it. That said, I suspect Tambellini's and Quinn's Idealized Roster Manuals already share many of the same pages.

Steve Tambellini has won the Stanley Cup as a player (see picture), but his roots are also firmly established in the international game. He represented Canada on the ice at the World Juniors, World Seniors, and Olympic Games, and has since served Hockey Canada at the management level for those same competitions. As a player he was a participant (one bronze); as a manager, a winner. As Quinn's best success occurred when he was head coach with strong assistants (just say no to Ricky Ley), and Renney's occurred when he was an assistant on a strong staff, Steve Tambellini has had his best success as a manager with a strong coaching staff. Lo and behold, that is the position that each now occupies with the Oilers.

Speaking of roots, some of them can get pretty tangled. Check out this Hockey Canada news release from March 2005:

CALGARY –Tom Renney, Head Coach and Vice President of Player Development of the New York Rangers, and Craig MacTavish, Head Coach of the Edmonton Oilers, have been named Team Canada’s assistant coaches for the 2005 IIHF Men’s World Hockey Championship, Team Canada’s General Manager Steve Tambellini announced on Thursday.

***

It's hard to put Kevin Lowe's fingerprints on the departures of Craig MacTavish and Charlie Huddy, in fact so little has been seen of K-Lowe that it seems safe to conclude that he too is now at arm's length and the Old Boys Club is officially histoire. All that remains of the old guard is Kelly Buchberger, who spent more time as MacT's winger than he did his assistant coach. As I (ever the optimist) wrote in defence of Bucky yesterday over at Lowetide's place:

As for Buchberger, I understand the frustration but as was the case when he was a young player, patience is key. When he broke in he was like Zack Stortini was two years ago, all warts and rough edges. The object of no little derision especially at first, Bucky worked harder than anybody, soaked up information like a sponge, and drove the twin engines of heart and desire to capacity on a daily basis. He was, and presumably remains, the ultimate team player. As a coach he perhaps achieved better results in Springfield than it seemed at the time, and who knows what he did or didn't accomplish last year. He's clearly the #3 man on the new totem pole, which is fine by me. If he had somehow been given the head job, that wouldn't have been fine at all, but the current situation calls for a little mortar between the bricks which is a role Kelly understands well. It's a hell of a learning opportunity for a young coach to put it mildly. I wish him well.

Finally, I also wish nothing but the best to outgoing coaches Charlie Huddy and Billy Moores as well as Craig MacTavish. While MacT's time had come, I'm less sure about Huddy and Moores who were caught in the crossfire of change. Both have been fixtures on the Edmonton hockey scene for three decades, with Huddy winning 5 Stanley Cups as a player for the Oilers, Moores 5 national titles as a head and assistant coach with the Golden Bears. Both came within a hair (pardon the pun) of adding a Stanley Cup as a coach in 2006. That near miss notwithstanding, both men are winners, and both men are class acts. Like MacT, they will be both missed and remembered fondly. For what it's worth, one Edmonton-area hockey fan of long standing says Thank You.

Team Togetherness

Some interesting quotes in today's news cycle:


"We need a new voice, we need a new start, we need new expectations, we need a new discipline, and it’s time to look forward here."

 Steve Tambellini, on expectations
***

"Mac really thought he couldn’t do any more with the group."

 Kevin Lowe, on accountability
[note how it is “the” group and not “our” group let alone “my” group]
***

"The thing that was maybe most disappointing for me was our culture took a hit, in terms of our work ethic and our selflessness."

 Craig MacTavish, on professionalism
***

"I’m always proud of the way I play, I’m always proud of the way I prepare and proud of the way I carry myself."

 Ethan Moreau, on himself
***

"If you’re in the NHL, if you want to have a good career, you should be able to motivate yourself."

 Ethan Moreau, on others
***

"We have some good veterans that hopefully want to be a part of this going forward. But I can tell you things are going to change as far as expectations and preparation from the players’ standpoint."

 Steve Tambellini, on the future
***

"We got behind the 8-ball right away, we took an undisciplined penalty. I love Scottie Hartnell’s emotion but he’s got to find that line of discipline and I don’t really think he did tonight. He’s a guy we count on to kill penalties, he’s a guy we count on a lot. ... He ends up in the penalty box way too much and that’s something we’re going to have to correct."

 John Stevens, coach of an actual playoff team, on Real accountability

The missing link

I know the pieces fit cuz I watched them tumble down

No fault, none to blame it doesn't mean I don't desire to

Point the finger, blame the other, watch the temple topple over

To bring the pieces back together, rediscover communication

Tool -- Schism

*****

I cited this tune over at Lowetide's place the other day, finding some of Maynard James Keenan's lyrics resonated with the (hotly-denied!) reports of a rift in the Oilers' room and with the state of the roster in general. Rather than dally with the rumours or try to divine the true intelligence behind Ethan Moreau's remarks, I focussed on matters of record, namely birth certificates. These reveal a stunning gap where the heart of the roster should be. To recap the findings of my previous post, here are Oilers players and GP by age group through 78 games in 2008-09:

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... AvGP .. %team
----------------------------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 61 ..... 61 ..... 4%
33-35 ..... 3 .... 217 ..... 72 .... 15%
30-32 ..... 8 .... 332 ..... 42 .... 22%
27-29 ..... 1 ..... 20 ..... 20 ..... 1%
24-26 ..... 9 .... 443 ..... 49 .... 30%
21-23 .... 10 .... 343 ..... 34 .... 23%
18-20 ..... 1 ..... 72 ..... 72 ..... 5%
----------------------------------------
Total .... 33 ... 1488 ..... 45 ... 100%

I have added two columns. The first is simply the average number of GP for players in the given age group; the second expresses the percentage of team GP for each age group. Here's a crude graph showing that % of GP distribution, featuring a very odd double-peaked curve.


That looks not so much like a team, but two different ones.

Comparison is the next stage of the analysis; it is obvious at first glance that the current age distribution is out of the ordinary, but how much so? Surely the place to start is with the '05-06 Oilers, the last time we know the pieces fit. Here was the distribution by age of the House of Cards that Kevin Built.

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... AvGP .. %team
----------------------------------------
36-39 ..... 2 ..... 56 ..... 28 ..... 4%
33-35 ..... 2 ..... 43 ..... 22 ..... 3%
30-32 ..... 9 .... 536 ..... 60 .... 34%
27-29 ..... 9 .... 472 ..... 52 .... 30%
24-26 ..... 7 .... 235 ..... 33 .... 15%
21-23 ..... 6 .... 204 ..... 34 .... 13%
18-20 ..... 3 ..... 25 ...... 8 ..... 2%
----------------------------------------
Total .... 38 ... 1571 ..... 41 ... 100%

In each column there's a fairly normal Bell curve with a single peak. Almost half (18 of 38, or 47%) of the players who suited up for the Oil during that chaotic season were between 27 and 32; moreover the same group played more games per player than the other groups; combine the two and the 27-to-32-year olds played fully 64% of the games. It's an interesting contrast to 2008-09, where not only is that huge hole at the age 27-29 level, but the distribution within groups is strange. Players over 33 averaged 70 GP; those between 27-32 averaged just 39. In 2008-09 the 27-32 y.o. group comprised just 27% of the full roster and played only 23% of the games. Let's compare the two graphically, with the 2005-06 Oilers represented in copper, the '08-09 squad in blue.


There are superficial similarities between the central curve of the '05-06 Oilers and the younger lobe of the current version, but there is a 5-year difference in maturity. More generally, the above starkly demonstrates the '08-09 Oilers have far more players near the beginning or end of their careers, while the '05-06 club had a critical mass of players near their peak.

Of course the 2005-06 regular season Oilers that stumbled and bumbled their way to 8th place was different from the leaner version that was wildly successful in that same post-season. Some guys were traded off mid-season; others who had a cup o' coffee at some point were out of the mix come playoff time, as was the case with all three 20-year-olds (Pouliot, Jacques, Syvret).

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... %team
--------------------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 18 ...... 4%
33-35 ..... 1 ..... 24 ...... 5%
30-32 ..... 9 .... 169 ..... 37%
27-29 ..... 8 .... 130 ..... 28%
24-26 ..... 4 ..... 74 ..... 16%
21-23 ..... 2 ..... 42 ...... 9%
18-20 ..... 0 ...... 0 ...... 0%
--------------------------------
Total .... 25 .... 457 .... 100%

The 27-32 y.o. set comprised 68% of the active players and played 65% of the games, while the under-24s played an even smaller role with only Hemsky and Greene getting a sniff of playoff action. I won't show a graph, which varies but little between regular season and playoffs. I have noted for future reference that playoff rosters might provide a more streamlined methodology, a little less clutter with fewer players and a more constant "best possible" line-up. Of course, for that method to work the team in question has to actually make the @#$%^&* playoffs.

Which brings us back to 2008-09, where it's instructive to compare the Oilers with the competition. I'm using brute force, not code, so won't do the whole league. Let's just compare with geographic rivals and Northwest Division co-leaders Calgary and Vancouver. Here I have reduced each team to just the number of players in each age category, and the percentage of GP for each group.

Age ..... Edmonton .. Vancouver .. Calgary
Group ... # / %team . # / %team . # / %team
-------------------------------------------
36-39 ... 1 // 4% ... 1 // 3% ... 1 // 5%
33-35 ... 3 / 15% ... 3 // 8% ... 3 / 12%
30-32 ... 8 / 22% ... 3 / 14% ... 6 / 23%
27-29 ... 1 // 1% .. 13 / 38% ... 6 / 20%
24-26 ... 9 / 30% ... 5 / 16% .. 11 / 30%
21-23 .. 10 / 23% ... 7 / 21% ... 5 / 11%
18-20 ... 1 // 5% ... 0 // 0% ... 0 // 0%
-------------------------------------------
Total .. 33 /100% .. 32 /100% .. 32 /100%

The Oilers have gotten more GP out of guys 33 and older than either rival, and more GP from guys 23 and younger. In the middle both divisional rivals far outstrip the Oilers; note the 13 players Vancouver has used in the 27-29 group, compared to Edmonton's 1. Calgary's curve peaks a little younger, but fully 73% of their games have been played by players aged 24-32, compared to 68% for Vancouver and just 53% for Edmonton. Here's a graph showing Vancouver in green, Calgary in red, Edmonton in blue.

Next year Dustin Penner and Tom Gilbert -- dangerously assuming either is still around -- will turn 27; Pouliot, Jacques, Stortini, Reddox and O'Sullivan all "graduate" to age 24, and their whole generation of players will be one year older and presumably better. At the same time, Sheldon Souray, Lubo Visnovsky, and Fernando Pisani all turn 33, Steve Staios turns 36, and lest we forget, Dwayne Roloson turns 40. Whatever the validity of my artificial brackets, it's pretty tough to argue those guys on the far side of 30 will be getting much better; they'll just be getting older. The wheel of time keeps turning, but given the void of players cycling through the top of the career curve ours seems to be missing an axle.

It is incumbent on Oilers management to address this gaping hole in the coming l-o-n-g off-season. Such a hole cannot be readily filled from within.

A room divided?

In 2006 the Oilers made a thrilling run to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. It was a veteran group: 19 of the 25 players who dressed during the playoff run were aged 27 or older, the other 6 age 25 or younger.

Fast forward three years, and just 6 players remain from that Cinderella crew. 5 of them were, and remain, veterans: Dwayne Roloson, age* 39; Steve Staios, 35; Ethan Moreau, 33; Fernando Pisani, 32; Shawn Horcoff, 30. Of the youngsters, only the enigmatic Ales Hemsky, now 25, remains an Oiler.

( * - "hockey age" as of Feb 1, as per Hockey-Reference.com)

Brad Winchester and Marc-Andre Bergeron were in the pressbox during those Stanley Cup Finals and were gone within a year. Of the four key youngsters of that run, last summer's trades of Raffi Torres (now 27), Jarret Stoll (26) and Matt Greene (25) gutted the squad of three of them. One of the departed players was moved for yet another unproven youngster, the other two netted a valuable but now injured veteran. Whatever the return, what was lost was an important link between the older and younger members of the team.

The 2008-09 Oilers are rumoured to be a fractured squad, with a significant group of 30-something vets, a larger group of youngsters with collectively little success in their pro careers, and not much in between to bridge the gap. Here's a breakdown of the 33 players who have suited up for Oil this season:

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP
----------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 61
33-35 ..... 3 .... 217
30-32 ..... 8 .... 332
27-29 ... 1 ... 20
24-26 ..... 9 .... 443
21-23 .... 10 .... 343
18-20 ..... 1 ..... 72

----------------------

Total .... 33 ... 1488

That's right, a great big hole right in the centre of the Bell curve, which even the gigantic Steve MacIntyre cannot begin to fill. Other than SMac and his 67 minutes of ice time, there's not a single player on the roster in the prime age bracket of 27-29.

And when the likes of Ethan Moreau -- or Craig MacTavish for that matter -- looks around the room, he sees a bunch of 30-something guys who have been through the wars, many of them together, and then a bunch of youngsters whose history with the Oilers is one of failure. Is it any wonder there are rumours of a disconnect in the room?

Guest rant

Got a beauty email from a friend, let's call him "Dave", who has been a season ticket holder for a number of years. Other than his association with me, Dave doesn't frequent the Oilogosphere. It was interesting to read his independent conclusions, so much so that I asked and received his permission to post his comments here. I thought it would be a nice change of pace for my blog to have a post that featured short sentences, each one that actually had a point.

***

As for the Oilers:
Color them dark brown, as in done like a Sunday roast.
The two Minny games and the Phoenix game amply pointed out the prime problems.
There's no passion. The Coach yawns through games.
This is a a passive collection of individual players, not a team.
There's no real leadership, starting right at the top, but mostly behind the bench.
There is no obvious focus, strategy, game plan or set of tactics other than passive defence and inflexible offence.
The penalty kill consists of a simple box with no puck pressure.
The power play consists of "ring around the rosie" then pass to Souray.
Defence is "active sticks'" positional play with little physical play or puck pressure.
A one goal lead is protected by single player forecheck and "back up like mad" defence.
Breakouts are based on multiple in-zone passes until the other team is organized, followed by slow movement through the neutral zone.
Offence consists of drop passes and making plays at the offensive blue line.
Nobody is encouraged to dump and chase.
Leaving a defensive position to recover a puck broken loose by a good forecheck or hit is discouraged. They never outman the defence in the oh-oh zone.
The best scoring player is harangued by the coach to play defence.
The +/- leader is relegated to the 4th line while the No. 1 line is deep in the +/- hole.
The line blender get turned on every second period.
The big bruiser gets left in the press box so the skilled players get pushed around.
The No. 1 goalie gets worked until he starts giving up bad goals from fatigue.
Four lines get played regardless of the score, until the 3rd period at least.

I hope they finish 12th. Maybe that will finally push the owner into making the necessary changes in management, the coach for non-performance and Mr. Lowe for not recognizing the fundamental problems and dealing with them. At least I wouldn't waste money in a fruitless first playoff round and the possibility that the futility would continue next year.

Bruised Black and Blue Dave

Stars at Oilers backstory

There's good news and there's good news, I'll let you decide which is which. The one is that I'm back from a rather more productive road trip than the Oilers had, and the other is that there are now officially rocks in my head.

Better still, the hockey gods have finally answered my regular entreaties and delivered me up a pair of tickets for tonight's Dallas at Edmonton game. So this pregame blurb will be rather short, but I'll have a game report in the comments or separate post much later on.

All this should have me in a good mood, and it does. Except for these odd nagging doubts. First and foremost among them is what has happened to our third defence pairing. Guys like Steve Staios and Jason Strudwick (pictured, with puck entering wrong net) are supposed to shore up the back end and give the team steady, solid service. But there is just no way of getting past numbers like these over the past 6 games:

Date - OPP: 24 / 43
-------------------
11/17 @DET: -1 / -1
11-18 @CBJ: -1 / -1
11-20 vDET: EV / -1
11-26 vLAK: -1 / -1
11-29 @STL: -1 / -1
11-30 @DAL: -1 / -1

Simply put, these guys are getting Owned, every game. Even before this: between them, they've had 15 minus games in the last 9 Oilers games.

Veteran defencemen like Staios and Strudwick aren't necessarily supposed to win you games, but they're not supposed to lose them either. Oilers have lost three of the last four by one goal, all in regulation. Those -1s look like lost standings points to me ... in fact, the difference between a regulation tie and a 1-goal loss is actually more like 1.5 points, assuming an equal distribution of Bettman points.

It's not just on the scoreboard. Over the season, at even strength the Oilers have been outshot 158-78 with Strudwick on the ice, a staggering 2:1 ratio. If you prefer the per/60 metric, make it 38-19 in shots on goal with Strudwick on the ice. Is it any surprise they've been outscored 10-5?

In the past 6 games it has only gotten much, much worse. Oil have been outscored 6-0 with Strudwick on the ice, and outshot 48-15. I haven't done the micromath but at his season's average of 12:37 ES TOI/GP that would be in about 75 minutes of action. Egads.

But wait a minute, you say, these guys kill penalties. True enough: over the last four games, Strudwick was twice on the ice for 2 PP GA, the one-goal losses against Detroit and Dallas. Over those four games, Strudwick has amassed 9:02 SH TOI during which time the opposition has scored those four goals. Again, for those who prefer per 60 metric, that's a cool -26.6 per hour over that short period of time.

Staios is barely better. he's been outshot 176-107 on the season and 43-19 over those 6 games. He's been on for 3 PPGA in 10:40 the last four games, including the ghastly game winner by Modano late in regulation in which Steady Steve seemed to be completely unaware of the concept of passing lanes and was frozen in the ice like a big ol' meteorite.

On the PP, and on offence generally, these two guys are a complete nonentity. When they're out there, the game gets played, badly, in their zone. The team shots differential on the season is -58. Staios is -69 and Strudwick -80; with these guys on the bench, the team is positive. That's insane.

But what's really insane is this. Ladislav Smid continues to rot in the press box with occasional opportunities to ferment up on the wing. Smid has been on the ice for exactly 1 ES GA all season. Yet MacT continues to show faith in his veterans (even though technically Smid is more of a MacT vet than the Oiler newcomer Strudwick is) who are routinely on the ice for an ESGA every game.

The last log on this particular fire is the fact Strudwick was advertised as a swing man, a guy who could move up and play wing when the situation required. If one of these guys needs to play up front for 4 or 5 minutes once in a while, I sure in heck would rather it was Strudwick. Better yet, I'd rather he was shipped direct to the press box for awhile. He has not been helping the hockey club for some weeks now.

Oh well, tonight I get the four-dimensional, live view. Hopefully that view will include a #5 and not a #43, but whoever, it's GOILERS!

Enjoy the game, everybody!

Anniversaries V: Bugsy's new shoes

November 20, 1980 was a Thursday of course, it being exactly one "solar cycle" ago (28 years = 7 leap cycles). It seems like a long time ago but what goes around comes around; there are some interesting parallels between Oiler teams then and now.

In those days the Oilers played most of their midweek home games on Wednesday. 28 years ago yesterday was another such game, an utterly forgettable 6-4 loss to Vancouver, remarakable for just one thing: it was the end of the short coaching career of Bugsy Watson.

In the fall of 1980 Glen Sather was assuming the reins of GM with the departure of Larry Gordon. His first job was to replace himself as coach. In the brash Bryan Watson, Sather saw a lot that reminded him of himself. Both had lengthy NHL careers because they were as long in guile and gamesmanship as they were short in actual talent. A good comparable for Watson among mondern players would be the guy who now wears Bugsy's old #18 for Red Wings, Kirk Maltby, with a little Jerkko Ruutu thrown in for good measure.

Watson's most famous accomplishment was his shadowing of Bobby Hull in the 1966 playoffs in which Bugsy drove Bobby beyond distraction and into revenge mode. Hull had killed in the Wings the previous year's playoffs, and in this, the fourth consecutive Hawks-Wings semi-final Wings coach Sid Abel unleashed his skating pit bull with the single task of taking down Hull. Which he did, with both scoring twice in the series while conducting an ongoing tong war. Wings won in six.

In his classic book on those 1980-81 Oilers, The Game of Our Lives, Peter Gzowski wrote:

'Just a few months earlier, Watson had seemed the perfect man to put some toughness and fire in the Oilers. He must have been one of the most voracious competitors ever to have played the game. Small (five-ten) and stocky -- he played at 170 pounds -- he set league records for penalties; until Dave "The Hammer" Schultz came along to lead Philadelphia's Broad Street Bullies in the 1970s, he was the most penalized player in NHL history, with 2,212 minutes -- more than thirty-six full games -- in the box. Yet no one regarded him as a bully, or an intimidator. He shared many of Sather's characteristics as a player; in a book called The Violent Game, the American sporrtswriter Gary Ronberg singled out the two of them. Ronberg described them as "relatively small rogues," and went on to write that, "They intimidate few players, but have a knack for unnerving them with an impertinent word or gesture, an annoying slash or cross-check. When they fight, it is usually against a bigger and stronger man, but the mismatch is in one sense an advantage -- little men are usually beaten, and when they manage to avoid a thrashing it seems like a victory."

'Although Watson played with nine different teams in his seventeen years in the league, the most vivid memory most fans have of him was as the Detroit Red Wing who stuck so closely to Bobby Hull in a 1966 playoff series... The tactic, sending one defensive specialist out to hobble a superstar, was not new at the time but no one had seen it used to this degree before, and it drove Hull to distraction. As a result of punishment he received in the course of that and other assignments, Watson's face looks like that of a battered pug. The bridge of his nose is concave; scar tissue crinkles over both eyes. He looks, as his nickname Bugsy suggests, like some small-time hood in a Hollywood gangster movie. For all that, though, there is a boyish vitality about his rearranged features, despite their brutish history. Women find him inordinately attractive.'

The Oilers had finished with a flourish the previous season under Sather's tutelage, grabbing the last playoff spot with a late surge and playing the first-overall Flyers tough in a surprisingly close first-round series. But the second year they struggled out of the gate. "Veterans" of the previous season included Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, Kevin Lowe, Dave Hunter, Dave Lumley, Dave Semenko: still young and developing players who were subject to ebbs and flows in their physical, mental and emotional games. In this sense they weren't too different from the modern group of Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert, Kyle Brodziak, Marc Pouliot, Zack Stortini, all of whom are struggling with the burden of higher expectations after the giddy heights of last spring. And their coach is struggling tight along with them.

In '80-81 the young Oilers and their coach struggled right out of the gate. Gzowski again:

'On his first road trip as coach, Watson was having difficulty adjusting the social distance he felt he ought to maintain from the players. For seventeen years he had been one of the boys; now, he missed the fraternity. Executive robes did not rest easily on his shoulders ... At the morning practive in Buffalo after their defeat by the Sabres, he had felt out of cointrol of the team. At least one player,who had apparently not settled for just a beer after the game, smelled of booze in the morning. Watson was angry with them, and disappointed.'

By mid-November the team had struggled to a 4-9-5 start, winning just one of 10 home games (a big one, the first ever Battle of Alberta which Oilers won 5-3 on two goals from Dave Semenko). Other than one frustrating run of 4 consecutive ties during a 6-game homestand -- no overtime in those days -- other home games were even more frustrating losses, many of them to mediocre opposition. In 6 home games the squad had scored 4 goals and failed to win.

Sather, whose patience with his players was legendary, wasn't satisfied with what his friend Bugsy was getting out of them. After that 6-4 loss to the ever-mediocre Canucks he had seen enough. With Peter Pocklington's blessing, Slats turned to the one guy he had the utmost confidence in: himself. That weekend, with the local press congregated in Toronto for the Eskimos' annual Grey Cup victory, Bugsy was fitted with cement shoes and quickly sank out of sight.

Sather: "The most important thing is the team. If my own brother was coaching this club, or playing on it, and it wasn't working out, I'd let him go too."

Although they predictably won the next game, 6-3 over Buffalo, Oilers continued to struggle under Sather. They posted an even worse 4-12-1 W-L-T mark in his first 17 games and made the turn at New Year at 8-21-6, before making a second half surge that took them right into the second round of the playoffs where they were eliminated by the defending champion Islanders. Sather had established firm control of the team and continued in the dual role (later becoming club president as well) as the team blossomed into a powerhouse and ultimately, a dynasty.
***

Historical footnote: The Grey Cup weekend firing was a time-honoured NHL tradition. Half a century ago, in a situation that closely parallels the Sather-Watson situation, Punch Imlach fired Billy Reay during Grey Cup weekend 1958 and became GM-coach of the Leafs. As described by sportwriter Scott Young (Neil's dad) in his own terrific book, The Leafs I Knew:

'November 26, Vancouver. Here for the Grey Cup. Sad but not much surprised to get the news that Billy Reay had been fired as the Leafs' coach and that Imlach would take over for the time being. What a bunch of cunning so-and-sos. They wait until every Toronto sports columnist is three thousand miles away covering the Grey Cup, and sports pages are all full of Grey Cup, and they fire Reay.

'Not that we could have changed the situation. But we might have put the finger on a few people who deserve to share the blame -- and do it before most fans forget, which generally takes about 48 hours; or until the next hockey game.'

Those '58-59 Leafs also went on a late season run to scrape into the playoffs, then made it through to the second round (then known as the Stanley Cup Finals) where they were eliminated by the defending champion Canadiens. Imlach too had established firm control as his team blossomed into a powerhouse cum dynasty.

In both cases the team was still 3+ seasons away at the time of the Grey Cup firing, but once they won the Cup they held onto it for awhile. Both Punch Imlach and Glen Sather won four Stanleys in the dual role. And Billy Reay and Bugsy Watson became historical footnotes in their own right.

Oilers 7, Blue Jackets 2 -- player gradings

I have offered to assist in David Staples' latest project over at Cult of Hockey, namely to grade the Oilers' players on a game-by-game basis. This is a collective effort, I'm just one member of a team of markers. Last night's Columbus game was my first contribution to the cause.

The scoring system is as follows: 10, perfect game; 9, extraordinary game; 8, great game; 7, good game; 6, above average game; 5, average game; 4, below average game; 3, bad game; 2, terrible game; 1, trade this player or send him to the minors.
***

Oilers 7, Columbus 2. A strange night in which Oilers were outshot 39-19 yet won in a laugher. Despite the offensive support Dwayne Roloson was the key performer frustrating the Jackets time and again. As they pressed they became vulnerable to the counter attack, and the Oilers made their chances count with some outstanding execution in the offensive zone. Nearly a perfect night on special teams, with the powerplay effectively going 3-for-3 (with one goal coming 6 seconds after the expiry of a penalty), and the PK unit killing a creditable 6 out of 7. Dustin Penner was an inspired presence on his return from the press box. A huge turnaround win for the Oil after three consecutive losses including two blowouts in regulation.
***

Shawn Horcoff – 8: A complete game from Oilers’ most complete player. 4 shots, 3 points, 2 blocked shots, 1 takeaway, a winning night in the faceoff circle. 23:21 TOI including major contributions to both special teams.

Robert Nilsson – 5: Decent game, not a major factor. Just missed the top corner with a wicked rising shot in the first period that an inch the other way would have made the highlight reels.

Andrew Cogliano – 7: Flying all night. A goal, an assist, +2. Had a couple penalties, one dreadful turnover and just 31% in the circle, but the good outweighed the bad by a lot.

Ethan Moreau – 6: The lone minus forward on the team, but contributed mightily to a good night for the PK, and a solid night defensively with 3 hits, 3 blocks, and a takeaway. Questionable decisions with the puck at times.

Steve Staios – 5: Am not liking Steve’s game much of late, but he came up with some big blocks and contributed to a shaky but mostly successful PK unit. Was on the ice for both Columbus goals and none for the Oilers.

Erik Cole – 5: Had some nice puck battles on the boards, had a secondary assist but really didn’t bring much offence to the table. Didn’t even attempt a shot. 0:00 on both special teams, just 13:18 ice time at even strength.

Dustin Penner – 8: Tempted to give a 9. An exceptional performance from the gentle giant in his 200th NHL game. Responded to his benching with his best game as an Oiler, scoring once and contributing directly to three other goals with his massive presence in front of the net. 3 shots, 3 hits, +2, and a thorn in Pascal Leclaire’s side all night long.

Jesse Boulerice – no grade: Scoresheet says he played all of 2:27 with a complete blank in all stats, but the only time I even noticed him was when he was late to the party on a post-whistle scrum.

Dwayne Roloson – 8: Outstanding performance from the veteran playing his 3rd game in 4 nights, facing 112 shots overall. 37 saves for the second night in a row, many of them top notch. Best penalty killer on the team.

Denis Grebeshkov – 6: Seen him good, seen him bad, seen him both at once. Made some real nice high skill plays getting the puck moving in the right direction. Lost a battle to Nash on the 4-2 goal and nearly got burned later in the same shift by Umberger but Roli saved his bacon.

Jason Strudwick – 5: Looks very much like a 7th defenceman. Just a little slow reacting to the puck at times. -1 on Huselius’s goal, but contributed almost 5:00 without a GA on the PK so gets a bare passing grade.

Sheldon Souray – 8: Displayed his booming shot with an unstoppable goal and a rocket off the bar. Beautiful pass to Cogliano for another goal. Was major contributor to both special teams, and finished the night +3 at evens. Was on the ice for 5 goals for and none against. Unnecessary penalty that led to Nash’s goal was his lone blemish.

Kyle Brodziak – 5: Tough night for the kid saddled with Boulerice. Only 8:09 ice time, half of it on the PK. Someone referred to him as a “defensive specialist” but he’s still very much a project in this role.

Lubomir Visnovsky – 7: Tidy night’s work, goal and an assist, +2. Some very nice work with the puck, good positional play, 3 blocked shots. Played with Grebeshkov in the latter part of the game as MacTavish put Gilbert with Souray at both even strength and the first unit PP. That experiment was a major success.

Tom Gilbert – 8: Probably played his best game of the season, a goal, a helper, +3, and 3 blocked shots. Looked composed with the puck when under pressure, a trademark of Tom’s A game, and broke the puck out of his end well.

Marc Pouliot – 7: Finally broke the ice with his first goal of the year which stood up as the game winner. Impressed me with his all-ice game, some real smart plays with the puck in his own end. Also made a "hero play" behind Roloson One of 5 Oilers with 3 blocked shots.

Ales Hemsky – 7: Earned his marks on the PP where he set up two goals, and a third just after the expiry of the Jackets’ last penalty. Was pretty ordinary at even strength otherwise. His turnover at the Columbus blueline late in the second let to Huselius goal that cut the margin to 3-1.

Liam Reddox – 6: Lots to like in this kid. Has good defensive awareness, and lots of try. One of 4 Oilers with 3 hits. Looked alright on the PK though’ was on the ice for the one PPGA.

Sam Gagner – 6: A little better showing for Sam after a very rough stretch. Finished with 2 assists, +2. Made a good play to lead the rush before Penner’s 5-2 goal that ended any doubt. No shots on goal.

Craig MacTavish – 8: The beleaguered coach made all the right calls on this night, bringing Penner into the lineup and inserting him back on the powerplay unit; switching up the top two defence pairings and finding some immediate chemistry; and especially with coming back with Roloson on a night where the armchair experts, yours truly included, thought it was a poor idea to ride the veteran. Roli proved us wrong, and MacT right, with a first star performance.

MacOmelette

And the seasons they go round and round
And the painted ponies go up and down
We're captive on the carousel of time
We can't return we can only look behind from where we came
And go round and round and round in the circle game
-- Buffy Sainte-Marie "The Circle Game"


Any team featuring Craig MacTavish never had any worries about its third-line centre. Until now.

The early word from training camp is that Coach MacT has looked at his roster and found an intergalactic void where the third-line centre used to be. No Jarret Stoll, no Marty Reasoner, no veteran centre to replace either of them, and a bunch of kids with known weaknesses extending down (and up) the depth chart. A prototypical 3C throughout his own accomplished career, MacT seemingly puts more value in the “veteran” part of the equation than worrying about having an actual “centre” play the position. He has indicated he might employ his most reliable veteran, Fernando Pisani, in the role.

Now unlike the Ryan Smyth Experiment of a few years ago (a.k.a. the Ryan Smyth Disaster), I don’t doubt for a second that Fernando will respond favourably to the challenge, and become an instantly-competent and eventually-excellent performer in a shutdown C role. He’s an intelligent, well-rounded, and versatile player, the kind of guy who would be first in line to play defence if the bench got too short in a given game situation. So he has to learn faceoffs? I’d put money on his achieving at least 50% in his first season playing the Circle Game. He just needs to put his mind, his terrific work ethic, and MacT’s coaching skills into gear and he is on his way already.

My concern comes from the trickledown effect, as the line-up logic cascades from there:

***
Q. Who replaces Pisani as our primo defensive winger?

A. Ethan Moreau. Ethan’s an experienced 3LW who hasn’t made it through the last two Octobers. Surely he won’t be so unlucky a third time.

Q. Wait a minute, that solves the problem on LW, but Fernando is moving over from the starboard side. How do we plug that hole?

A. Just because he hasn’t played a down at RW in his entire career is no reason why Dustin Penner can’t make the switch. A winger’s a winger, no? (Unless he’s a centre.)

Q. But … but … wouldn’t it make more sense for our two savviest vets to protect some of the kids in the line-up rather than each other? A stint with Fernando was a key stage of the season for kids like Gagner, Nilsson, and Brodziak last year.

A. Well, we need to get our best checkers out there on the 3 line, and give them all the tough minutes they can soak up.

Q. But wouldn’t Moreau be a perfect fit in GlenX’s old spot with Brodziak and Stortini? He’s a natural portsider who plays the same sort of grinding game that the big youngsters displayed effectively down the stretch. Might even be an upgrade on GlenX, who was terrific in his brief run wearing the oil drop. Wouldn’t it make sense to give Moreau reduced but high tempo ice time 5v5, and continue to rely on him on the 1PK unit?

A: We can’t afford that luxury.

Q. So who do we wind up putting on the left wing with those two kids?

A. Another kid, one who doesn’t normally play the wing. If it’s Pouliot or Brule, one whose previous experience on the flank has been on their natural, right side.

Q. Brodziak and Stortini played well last year, but are they strong enough to carry a third youngster who’s learning his way in a new (out-of-) position?

A. Meh. We’ll adjust on the fly, shorten the bench, play the three-line game.

Q. Will this help in the development of Poo/Broo/Potty/Sugartits? Especially if two or more of them shuttle in and out of the line-up?

A. It didn’t hurt Horcoff’s development did it? Whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.
***

What would kill us is another lost October. It would seem that MacT sees the Pisani Sandwich as the best insurance policy against that happening again.

Here is one variation of the Pisani-centred line-up:

1. Cole – Horcoff – Hemsky
2. Nilsson – Cogliano – Gagner
3. Moreau – Pisani – Penner
4. Pouliot? – Brodziak – Stortini

Looked at another way:

1. RW – C – RW
2. LW – C – C
3. LW – RW – LW
4. C – C – RW

… meaning no fewer than 5 guys playing something other than their preferred position. Replace Pouliot on 4LW with Brule, Schremp, Potulny, doesn’t matter … they’re all centres. At least, they were.

Time on the wing is part of the apprenticeship for many NHL centres – as I recall MacT himself played a fair bit of LW in Boston – but for a guy like Marc Pouliot it hasn’t exactly been a recipe for success. Last season Pouliot had an early-season run at 4RW, which was an unmitigated disaster, 9 GP, 0-0-0, -7. After a four-month stint in Springfield, he was both recalled and inserted at his natural position of centre, where he responded with a fine stretch run, 15 GP, 1-6-7, +6.

To realize its potential with the current cast of characters, the team really needs one of those young centres to step up and seize the 3C role. Ideally that would be Pouliot who has proven to be competent defensively, at least when playing his natural position. Surround him with Pisani and Penner on the “P3 Line” (doesn’t get much more Albertan than that), or Pisani and Cole. If Pouliot struggles, give Brule a shot in the same spot, but let him play his natural position. Or move Brodziak up and give Brule or Schremp or Potulny or one of the other young centres a shot playing Centre on the fourth line.

Of course it’s all well and good to sit on the sideline and ponder “wouldn’t it be nice if we could actually put a round peg in a round hole?” Fact is MacT can’t afford to have the club bleed out in October again while some youngster is in over his head against the tough comp. He’s got to start playing to win (or at least, for the tie :), right from Game 1. Until then, though, he can experiment all he likes with Pisani at centre, but at the same time those young guys will get some ice in the preseason as well, both down the middle and on the flank. Hell, maybe some of those young guys can learn a thing or two simply by watching how the consummate professional Pisani responds to the challenge of learning their position, even as he challenges them for ice time.

I’m guessing MacT’s first choice would be to keep it a preseason experiment to broaden his options later in the season, while motivating the Pouliots of the team to not take anything for granted. But wouldn’t it be great if one of them just seizes the reins and doesn’t let go? It’s the biggest “If” of the new season.