Tracking Ladi II

At the beginning of the season I identified Ladislav Smid as a player of interest. A third of the way into the campaign, his development has been derailed somewhat by a concussion and complicated by Craig MacTavish's seeming preference for a marginal veteran (Jason Strudwick) over the emerging youngster. Still, there's a big enough data set to see how Ladi stacks up in the team's hierarchy.

As we did in part one of this series, let's start again with stats compiled by Gabe Desjardins of Behind the Net:

GA ON/60
--------
0.43 Ladislav Smid (12 GP)
1.36 Lubomir Visnovsky (25 GP)
2.23 Steve Staios (24 GP)
2.31 Jason Strudwick (22 GP)
2.33 Denis Grebeshkov (22 GP)
2.39 Sheldon Souray (24 GP)
3.24 Tom Gilbert (25 GP)

+-/60
-----
+0.96 Visnovsky
+0.48 Souray
+0.42 Smid
+-0.0 Grebeshkov
-0.15 Gilbert
-0.56 Staios
-1.16 Strudwick

QualComp
--------
+0.06 Smid
+0.04 Gilbert
+0.03 Souray
+0.03 Grebeshkov
+0.02 Visnovsky
+0.01 Strudwick
+-0.0 Staios

QualTeam
--------
+0.32 Souray
+0.25 Visnovsky
+0.14 Grebeshkov
+0.10 Gilbert
-0.12 Smid
-0.21 Staios
-0.26 Strudwick
---

It would appear the last category is affected by defence partner, given that for the most part the top two on the list have played together, as have the next two, with the bottom three mostly combining as the third pairing and largely playing with one of the other two. Be that as it may, from the QualComp metric Smid has played the toughest foes on the club, Staios and Strudwick the weakest.

Since the top four are pretty well defined on this club anyway I'll simply look at 5-24-43 from here on.

ES TOI (from HockeyAnalysis.com)
------
Staios 341:44
-- w. Strudwick 213:56 (63%)
-- w. Smid 65:02 (19%)

Strudwick 275:30
-- w. Staios 213:56 (78%)
-- w. Smid 26:31 (10%)

Smid 141:01
-- w. Staios 65:02 (46%)
-- w. Strudwick 26:31 (19%)
---

As the de facto 7th guy Smid filled in for both Staios and Strudwick when both missed time for various reasons, so he wound up on the third pairing naturally. He also got a little time with Visnovsky when Souray was out, and a little more with Gilbert when Grebs was out, as MacT clearly didn't want to mess with the mighty pairing of Staios and Strudwick. And when all 7 have been healthy, Smid has been the choice of healthy scratch for reasons that continue to escape me entirely. Hockeyanalysis.com provides the evidence:

GF/GA per 20
------------
Staios w . Smid: +0.000 / -0.000 = EVEN
Staios w/o Smid: +0.723 / -1.012 = -0.289
Smid w/o Staios: +0.526 / -0.263 = +0.263

Strudwick w . Smid: +0.000 / -0.000 = EVEN
Strudwick w/o Smid: +0.402 / -0.964 = -0.562
Smid w/o Strudwick: +0.349 / -0.175 = +0.174

Staios w. Strudwick: +0.374 / -1.028 = -0.654
Staios w/o Struds: +0.939 / -0.469 = +0.470
Struds w/o Staios: +0.325 / -0.325 = EVEN
---

That's per period, meaning that for every 60 minutes they play together, Staios and Strudwick have been outscored by 2 goals. Either on his own has been OK, and either with Smid has pitched zeroes. Staios is +6/-3 = +3 without Strudwick, +4/-11 = -7 with him. My eyes have not been deceiving me: this partnership has struggled.

But GF/GA are small number statistics (esp. for Smid!), so let's avail ourselves of the ES shots data from Timeonice.com, and prorate them to the above ES ice time. I prefer per/60:

SF/SA per 60
------------
Smid overall: +29.8 / -31.9 = -2.1
Staios overall: +22.4 / -33.5 = -11.1
Strudwick overall: +18.9 / -36.2 = -17.3

Staios w . Smid: +29.3 / -31.4 = -2.1
Staios w/o Smid: +20.1 / -33.0 = -12.9
Smid w/o Staios: +30.0 / -32.4 = -2.4

Strudwick w . Smid: +29.4 / -43.0 = -13.6
Strudwick w/o Smid: +17.8 / -35.4 = -17.6
Smid w/o Strudwick: +29.9 / -29.3 = +0.6

Staios w . Strudwick: +18.2 / -34.2 = -16.0
Staios w/o Strudwick: +29.6 / -32.4 = -2.6
Strudwick w/o Staios: +21.4/ -42.9 = -21.5
---

I have nothing at all against Jason Strudwick, but I just don't see any way to interpret the above except to conclude he stinks at evens. As a pair, he and Staios have been brutal, outshot 34-18 per 60 minutes and outscored 3-1. Without Staios, Strudwick's performance has been even worse, whereas Staios at least gets up near the waterline. Smid, meanwhile, tools along at about +30/-30 with everybody, except Strudwick where his shots against rate just plummets into the ghastly mid-40s.

Finally, a hodge podge of other "new statistics". Again from Timeonice.com, the stat Vic Ferrari calls ZoneShift, where a positive number means play is tending from the defensive to offensive zone with Player X on the ice, followed by Scoring Opportunities for and against as tracked by Dennis over at MC79hockey, and Errors as tabulated by David Staples at Cult of Hockey.

ZoneShift
---------
Smid ******** -5 (-2.1/60)
Staios ***** -29 (-5.1/60)
Strudwick ** -28 (-6.1/60)

Staios w. Strudwick -27 (-7.6/60)
---

Scoring opportunities
---------------------
Smid ******* +28/-34 = -6 (-2.55/60*)
Staios ***** +64/-87 = -23 (-5.35/60*)
Strudwick ** +49/-77 = -28 (-6.49/60*)

(per 60 rates adjusted for missing STL game)
---

Errors:
-------
Smid ******* 1 (0.43/60)
Strudwick ** 6 (1.31/60)
Staios ***** 8 (1.40/60)
---

One final point about Smid: there was a big discussion a while back about how his on-ice Sv% of .981 was unsustainable. Since then that number has actually risen to a presumably-even-more-unsustainable .987 (!), while his Sh% ON is also by far a team low at just 2.9%. He may be a low-event player, but surely he can't be THAT low-event. Only three goals scored by both teams in over seven periods of even strength time is the type of stat that cannot continue long term. That said, he's clearly far lower (negative) event than Strudwick, and MacT's seeming preference for the veteran is puzzling in the here and now as well as for the future.

Stars at Oilers backstory

There's good news and there's good news, I'll let you decide which is which. The one is that I'm back from a rather more productive road trip than the Oilers had, and the other is that there are now officially rocks in my head.

Better still, the hockey gods have finally answered my regular entreaties and delivered me up a pair of tickets for tonight's Dallas at Edmonton game. So this pregame blurb will be rather short, but I'll have a game report in the comments or separate post much later on.

All this should have me in a good mood, and it does. Except for these odd nagging doubts. First and foremost among them is what has happened to our third defence pairing. Guys like Steve Staios and Jason Strudwick (pictured, with puck entering wrong net) are supposed to shore up the back end and give the team steady, solid service. But there is just no way of getting past numbers like these over the past 6 games:

Date - OPP: 24 / 43
-------------------
11/17 @DET: -1 / -1
11-18 @CBJ: -1 / -1
11-20 vDET: EV / -1
11-26 vLAK: -1 / -1
11-29 @STL: -1 / -1
11-30 @DAL: -1 / -1

Simply put, these guys are getting Owned, every game. Even before this: between them, they've had 15 minus games in the last 9 Oilers games.

Veteran defencemen like Staios and Strudwick aren't necessarily supposed to win you games, but they're not supposed to lose them either. Oilers have lost three of the last four by one goal, all in regulation. Those -1s look like lost standings points to me ... in fact, the difference between a regulation tie and a 1-goal loss is actually more like 1.5 points, assuming an equal distribution of Bettman points.

It's not just on the scoreboard. Over the season, at even strength the Oilers have been outshot 158-78 with Strudwick on the ice, a staggering 2:1 ratio. If you prefer the per/60 metric, make it 38-19 in shots on goal with Strudwick on the ice. Is it any surprise they've been outscored 10-5?

In the past 6 games it has only gotten much, much worse. Oil have been outscored 6-0 with Strudwick on the ice, and outshot 48-15. I haven't done the micromath but at his season's average of 12:37 ES TOI/GP that would be in about 75 minutes of action. Egads.

But wait a minute, you say, these guys kill penalties. True enough: over the last four games, Strudwick was twice on the ice for 2 PP GA, the one-goal losses against Detroit and Dallas. Over those four games, Strudwick has amassed 9:02 SH TOI during which time the opposition has scored those four goals. Again, for those who prefer per 60 metric, that's a cool -26.6 per hour over that short period of time.

Staios is barely better. he's been outshot 176-107 on the season and 43-19 over those 6 games. He's been on for 3 PPGA in 10:40 the last four games, including the ghastly game winner by Modano late in regulation in which Steady Steve seemed to be completely unaware of the concept of passing lanes and was frozen in the ice like a big ol' meteorite.

On the PP, and on offence generally, these two guys are a complete nonentity. When they're out there, the game gets played, badly, in their zone. The team shots differential on the season is -58. Staios is -69 and Strudwick -80; with these guys on the bench, the team is positive. That's insane.

But what's really insane is this. Ladislav Smid continues to rot in the press box with occasional opportunities to ferment up on the wing. Smid has been on the ice for exactly 1 ES GA all season. Yet MacT continues to show faith in his veterans (even though technically Smid is more of a MacT vet than the Oiler newcomer Strudwick is) who are routinely on the ice for an ESGA every game.

The last log on this particular fire is the fact Strudwick was advertised as a swing man, a guy who could move up and play wing when the situation required. If one of these guys needs to play up front for 4 or 5 minutes once in a while, I sure in heck would rather it was Strudwick. Better yet, I'd rather he was shipped direct to the press box for awhile. He has not been helping the hockey club for some weeks now.

Oh well, tonight I get the four-dimensional, live view. Hopefully that view will include a #5 and not a #43, but whoever, it's GOILERS!

Enjoy the game, everybody!

Defence at the quarter pole

Facts, stats, and observations about the Oilers defence corps 20 games in.

Scoring **** GP, G-A-P PPP P/GP
-------------------------------
Souray ***** 19, 7-8-15(7) 0.79
Visnovsky ** 20, 4-8-12(7) 0.60
Gilbert **** 20, 2-9-11(5) 0.55
Grebeshkov * 17, 1-7-8 (3) 0.47
---
Strudwick ** 17, 0-3-3 (0) 0.18
Staios ***** 18, 1-1-2 (0) 0.11
Smid ******** 9, 0-2-2 (0) 0.22

The Oilers rely more heavily on scoring from the back end than almost any other NHL squad. Oilers currently (thru Monday's games) feature 3 of the top 25 defence scorers in the NHL (Souray 9th, Visnovsky 19th, Gilbert 25th). All 3 rank among Oilers' top 5 scorers; only Nashville and San Jose even have 2 D in their top 5, all other teams 1 or 0. Similarly, Oilers are the only team with 4 defencemen in their top 8.

Sheldon Souray leads the Oilers in goals with 7, while no forward has managed more than 5. The other 29 NHL teams have a forward as their leading goal scorer, although in Nashville there is a tie between a D (Shea Weber) and a F (Jason Arnott).

Tom Gilbert's splits:
as of Nov 1: 10 GP, 0-1-1, -6
since Nov 1: 10 GP, 2-8-10, +3

Dennis Grebeshkov's splits:
Oct 12-Oct 18: 4 GP, 0-4-4, +3
Oct 22-Nov 9: 7 GP, 1-0-1, -8
Nov 10-Nov 20: 6 GP, 0-3-3, +3

Time on ice: Visnovsky is leaned on heavily at evens, 18:35 per game. The rest of the big four all come in right around 16 minutes, Staios 14, Strudwick and Smid 12. Visnovsky also leads the PP at a shade under 5 minutes a game, but ranks a distant 6th among penalty killers at under 1:00 per. Souray makes huge contributions to both special teams (4:45 and 3:55) and thus joins Visnovsky with 24+ minutes of total ice time. The PP has been divided 70/30 between Visnovsky/Souray and Gilbert/Grebeshkov, which is tough to argue with given both of the big money guys have earned a good reputation as a power player. It'll be interesting to see how this morphs as MacT tinkers with the pairings. It's also tough to argue with no other defenceman on the team averaging more than 0:10 PP TOI/G. Meanwhile, Staios and Souray anchor the PK, with Strudwick, Gilbert and to a lesser extent Grebs contributing appreciable time (if not results).

Special teams: On the PP so far, Souray has been The Man. He has been on the ice for 12 of the 15 5v4 goals, with an impressive +8.21/60. Visnovsky, Grebs, and Gilbert are all between 5 and 5.5. The PP is only +2.94 when Souray is OFF the ice, whereas the other guys all see the PP improve from the low +5s to +7 or 8 when they leave the ice. On the PK, Strudwick impressed until the most recent game, and still leads the way with a modest -3.03/60. Gilbert and Souray are semi-respectable around -7, but the other guys are in minus double digits per 60 which is flat out terrible. Visnovsky trails at worse than -14 ... egads.

Corsi numbers of Oilers D (even strength):
Visnovsky +21, Souray +16, Grebeshkov +10, Gilbert -6, Smid -6, Staios -67, Strudwick -82.

ZoneShift of Oilers D (even strength):
Grebeshkov +16, Souray +12, Visnovsky +10, Gilbert +1, Smid -6, Strudwick -22, Staios -28.

From these last sets of numbers it is clear that our third pairing is getting killed out there at evens. Despite the fact Strudwick has started exactly the same number plays in the offensive and defensive zones (52 each), Oilers have been outshot a staggering 134-69 with him on the ice. Staios actually has started more shifts in the offensive zone (73-64), yet the shots against are nearly as bad at 150-93. This has begun to show up on the scoreboard in recent games.

Steve Staios' splits:
First 9 games: +5
Next 9 games: -4

Jason Strudwick's splits:
First 10 games +3:
Last 7 games: -4

On the other hand, there’s this from the same source (timeonice.com):

Sv% ON: Smid .983 (in limited minutes), Strudwick .948, Staios .947, Visnovsky .941, Souray .932, Gilbert .906, Grebeshkov .904

... which suggests that perhaps the two veterans are limiting the quality of the shots they allow even as they are getting clobbered in the territorial play. The next two on the list are also veterans who have the decided advantage of creating stuff in the other end. Meanwhile Gilbert and especially Grebeshkov have been doing well in driving the play judging from the above Corsi and ZoneShift numbers, yet both are minus players because … their goalies stink? they’ve been giving up ten bell chances? The Dice Are Rattling? Yet more grist for the Corsi/shots/shot quality debate that has been a recurring – and fascinating – theme of the Oilogosphere since I’ve been around and before. At this point I have concluded nothing more than the answer lies somewhere in the middle between quantity and quality, and neither can be trusted on their own to tell the whole story.

The Oilers' current group makes an interesting case study towards this discussion which I will continue to follow with interest.

Tracking Ladi I

Early days, but check out these numbers from Behind the Net:

GA ON/60
----------------
1.53 Ladislav Smid (3 GP)
1.55 Jason Strudwick (7)
1.72 Steve Staios (5)
1.91 Lubomir Visnovsky (7)
1.98 Sheldon Souray (6)
2.64 Denis Grebeshkov (7)
2.68 Tom Gilbert (7)

QualComp
-----------------
+0.43 Smid
+0.21 Strudwick
+0.12 Visnovsky
+0.08 Staios
+0.06 Souray
+0.05 Gilbert
+0.00 Grebeshkov

QualTeam
-----------------
-0.24 Souray
-0.10 Smid
-0.10 Grebeshkov
+0.02 Staios
+0.16 Visnovsky
+0.20 Gilbert
+0.37 Strudwick

... with the last listed in inverse order so that the "right" guys with the toughest assignments are at the top of the list. In about 40 minutes total TOI, Smid ranks first, first and second, which certainly supports my unscientific observation that he played damn well in those games.

Tonight Ladi draws in if Strudwick is unable to go. To me it's a no-brainer, give Struds a chance to rest and recover, he's never going to play 82 games anyway. Smid plays a similar stay-at-home game, he's not banged up and surely he's chomping at the bit to play. Based on his early returns, there's no reason to hesitate getting Ladi right back in the line-up.

Game On ... for real, finally

On the ninth day of the NHL season, and the fourth day since pucks started dropping for keeps in rinks all over North America, tonight the Oilers become the 30th and last NHL team to play a real game. Happily for old-timers like me, they've broken out the traditional blue-and-orange uniforms for the occasion of opening their 30th anniversary (sic) season.

With the belated start the Oilers are already 8 points back in pursuit of the President's Trophy. That it's Glen Sather's Rangers that are leading the way is all the reassurance we need that the season is indeed very young. But it's about goddam time the season actually got underway for all of its participants.

No doubt these rest days would have come in a lot handier at other points in a season in which the schedule maker has done us zero favours. A nice enforced rest to start the season, followed by what seems like a two-month road trip, including most egregiously of all, an Oilers-at-Rangers game scheduled DURING Glenn Anderson's HHoF induction. The marketing whizzes at the NHL office have their heads lodged so firmly up their arses they'll need a crowbar to get them out. But that's a rant for another day (consider the foregoing a down payment :).

Tonight, alas, I get to watch just the first period before heading off to work. The PVR is in good working order, programmed and ready to go, but a time-delayed broadcast is another degree of separation on an occasion when every red-blooded Oilers' fan wants to be in the building, cheering on the start of another new season. Those of you lucky enough to have a ticket, enjoy yourselves! I've seen my share of home openers ... more on this tomorrow.

Surprises of training camp:

1. "SMacIntyre" coming out of nowhere to make the 23-man roster. I guess if you replaced SMac's name with "little-known enforcer" it's not that surprising. In the two years since Big Georges left town the Oilers' "team tough" mantra has failed. The team hasn't exactly been pushed around, but they have suffered more than their share of injuries, some of which (Moreau's and Souray's shoulder injuries) were sustained in the name of team toughness and some of which were caused by other teams "enforcers" (Jody Shelley, Derek Boogaard) who weren't otherwise occupied. I'm not saying it's right, but I can understand why the organization was looking for a hired fist.

2. Strudwick leapfrogging Smid in the depth chart and dressing for the opener. Props to Lowetide for calling this one pretty much the day Strudwick was signed. I too like Strudwick, and have since he played for in Vancouver -- at this point in his career he's the ideal seventh defenceman; tough, experienced, reliable. But I'm disappointed that Smid's play in camp didn't inspire confidence; I was, and am, hoping for a big leap forward in Ladi's play in 2008-09. This is not a promising start.

3. Pisani still playing centre. By placing three veterans on the third line and three youngsters on the fourth, MacT has clearly stratified the lines. This will likely play out in TOI, where it will be relatively easy to shorten the bench in close games. I like the four-line strategy myself, but I also like winning, so I'll have to trust Coach MacTavish to maximize his roster to that end.

Non-surprises of training camp:

1. The demotion of Rob Schremp. Robbie's game is suited a Top 6 position, and with Penner already waiting in line there's just no room. Too bad, really, but 2007-08 was his window, and a whole bunch of kids -- Nilsson, Cogliano, Gagner, Brodziak, arguably Penner -- sailed right past him.

2. The demotion of Gilbert Brule. The youngster showed quite a bit, but after two years of playing just 10 minutes a game in Columbus he needs more ice time than he would see in a 12/13 role here in Edmonton. Hopefully he'll see closer to 20 minutes in all situations in Springfield, and earn his recall in due course. This formula worked pretty well for Pouliot last season.

3. The inability of Marc Pouliot (pictured) to seize the 3C role. Props to the kid for making the team out of the gate, but I agree with most on the 'sphere that a straight switch of Pouliot for Moreau would balance those two lines while allowing everybody to play his natural position. Unfortunately it seems Poo still hasn't fully won MacT's trust.

All that said, the MacBlender could come out early and all that hand-wringing come to naught. However they line up, they'll be wearing the blue and orange (yippee!), so it's GOILERS!

Smid: sink? or swim? Some stats to set the stage

Why the heck are the Oilers playing Ladi Smid at such a young age? Shouldn’t he be developing his craft in the AHL rather than getting his baptism-by-fire at the NHL level? Haven’t we seen enough scenes like the above?

Such questions are cannon fodder for the ongoing Oilogosphere debate between those who like watching young players develop vs. those who lean towards veteran solutions to plug perceived holes on the roster. Those who have read my commentary over the past year will likely realize I have a strong preference towards the former. Bear in mind that I watched all the myriad of mistakes of a club that simultaneously * featured six emerging youngsters age 21 and under; today all six are in (or en route) the Hockey Hall of Fame, so that time it worked out all right. It doesn’t always, obviously, but perhaps that explains my bias.

(*1981-82)

This week the experience-vs.-potential debate has turned to young Smid, both in my previous post on Oil Droppings and in this comments thread over at Lowetide. Are the Oilers rushing Ladi? In his defence I mentioned names like Chris Pronger, Jay Bouwmeester, Brent Burns, and Robyn Regehr as guys who were minus machines at the start of their career but took off once they gained the requisite experience. I immediately accused myself of cherry-picking and decided to do a little more rigorous research on the subject. So here goes …

Once again availing myself of the on-line bible Hockey-Reference.com, I went through 15 years of entry draft records, 1990-2004, identifying defencemen who were picked among the top 10 selections. HR doesn’t list their positions on that database, but let’s just say there were a lot more familiar names in that elite draft list than unfamiliar ones, so I just spot-checked the doubtfuls. I came up with a list of 45 blue-chip blue-liners that went near the top of their draft class. Interesting fact #1 is that 45/150 = exactly 30%, which “coincidentally” is the solution to the well-known roster equations 6 of 20 and 7 of 23.

None of the 45 were selected by the Oilers, and while a few (Hamrlik, Pronger, Brewer, Pitkanen) subsequently spent time in Edmonton, Smid is the only one to actually begin his career here.

Interestingly, every last one of the 45 blue-chippers has subsequently played in the NHL, anywhere from a cup of coffee (Boris Valabik, 2004, 7 games to date) to a long, distinguished career (Darryl Sydor, 1990, 1171 GP). As a group they have so far played 22,998 regular season games, more than 500 per, an average that will continue to soar since over 30 of these guys are still active. NHL scouts know their stuff.

[Amazing trivia: of the 25 Entry Drafts 1979-2003, 248 of the 250 players chosen in the Top 10 have actually played in the NHL! For extra points, name the two hotshots who never got a single cup of coffee. Answer below]

I’m particularly interested in the blue-chip defencemen’s performance as youngsters, and since Smid himself has just completed his 21-year-old season I chose that age as the cutoff (“hockey age” as defined by Hockey-reference.com). Of the 45 guys all but three (Ruslan Salei, Lance Ward, Lars Jonsson) played their first games at or before that age. 32 of the 45 had played at least 50 GP and 23, a rank majority, had over 100 NHL games by that age. As a group they averaged 113 GP through their 21-year-old season. Having completed his 21-year-old season with 142 GP, Ladi Smid ranks 21st, right in the middle of the pack.

So how did these guys fare in their early years? I chose +/- as the best available statistic of record. Interestingly, as a group these hot shot draft choices are virtually at the waterline with a collective -21 in those 23000 GP. Even more interesting are the splits:

Up to 21: 5069 GP, -291 (-0.057/GP)
22 & up: 17929 GP, +270 (+0.015/GP)
Totals: 22998 GP, -21, (-0.001/GP)

Surely that’s enough of a difference to be statistically significant.

Like most statistical studies, the samples are far from pure and we must recognize their limitations:
 For starters, +/- is not a perfect stat. (Eh, David?)
 Where ATOI numbers are available, virtually all played fewer minutes/GP in the early years, very probably against lesser QualComp (which is unavailable except for the most recent draft classes). Presumably coaches generally “sheltered” these guys early in their career, which would tend to reduce their raw minus figures.
 OTOH, guys drafted in the top 10 are generally coming in to non-playoff teams, so there might be an early-career bias towards minus figures due to team effects.
 As the team improves to the mean, the player’s stats should improve with them. But the player’s own improvement would contribute to that team improvement. Such self-referential data is apt to be corrupted no matter how you slice it.
 Conclusion: Handle with caution, but the career arcs from minus to plus of entire groups of players must to some extent reflect their growth as players.

One problem is that the data includes the early careers of all 45 players, but the mid-careers of a smaller number and the late careers of relatively few. Since two-thirds of them, 28 of 42, were minus players in the under-22 portion of their careers, this skews the overall result to make the entire group appear to be average (even) players when clearly they are not. To eliminate this built-in bias I therefore did a separate sort of just those 15 blue-chippers -- again, exactly 30% -- drafted in the Top 10 in the five drafts 1990-94. Some of these guys are still going strong, but their careers are pretty well defined at this point. I will show just this smaller table to confirm the method:


Year Pick Player ******** up to 21 22 & up
*************************** GP +/- GP +/-
---------------------------------------------
1990 7 Darryl Sydor ****** 182 -14 989 +38
1990 8 Derian Hatcher ***** 193 -1 852 +75
1990 9 John Slaney ********* 47 +3 221 -29
1990 10 Drake Berehowsky *** 50 -5 499 -43
1991 3 Scott Niedermayer * 213 +62 888 +122
1991 4 Scott Lachance ***** 166 +7 653 -83
1991 5 Aaron Ward *********** 5 +2 692 -44
1991 8 Richard Matvichuk ** 92 -14 704 +60
1992 1 Roman Hamrlik ***** 261 -77 815 +13
1992 3 Mike Rathje ******* 116 -26 652 +52
1992 5 Darius Kasparaitis * 155 +9 708 +30
1993 2 Chris Pronger ***** 202 -33 738 +186
1994 1 Ed Jovanovski ***** 212 -16 609 -26
1994 2 Oleg Tverdovsky *** 246 -17 467 -4
1994 10 Nolan Baumgartner *** 5 -1 126 +5

Up to 21: 2145 GP, -121 (-0.056/GP)
22 & up: 9613 GP, +352 (+0.037/GP)
Totals: 11758 GP, +231 (0.020/GP)

Given that exactly 2/3 (10 of 15) were minus players through age 21 this player sample would seem to be representative of the larger group. Results varied from player to player, from the freakish Niedermayer to the slow-developing Pronger, but as a group they improved by about +1 for every 10 GP after their 22nd birthdays.

The question remains why not play them in the AHL ‘til they’re 22 to learn the pro game and avoid those early-career minuses? Anaheim did this with Salei, who is not a bad comparable to Smid btw. But it was Ruslan's treatment that was exceptional for a high draft pick, not Ladi’s. Those same 15 top-drawer prospects that played 2145 GP at the NHL level by age 21 played just 402 AHL/IHL games during the same stage of their careers. Per player that's 143 GP in the NHL, just 27 in the minors. It would seem most teams conclude that for development purposes, AHL ≠ NHL. Defencemen training to compete at the top level must be exposed to opposition at the top level. Or so goes the common wisdom in the NHL. What the Oilers are doing with Smid is nothing out of the ordinary at all for a player of his pedigree.

Finally there is the matter of the CBA. As of 2008-09, players are free to move on after 7 years of NHL experience OR age 27 (with at least 4 years experience). Since virtually every player on the list would meet the second criterion, there is no reason to delay their start on the first. Thus the UFA clock begins ticking when the player graduates from junior, whether he is in the AHL or NHL. Time spent developing a guy more slowly in the AHL is potentially time lost at the productive end of those first 7 years.

So it is with Ladi Smid, who has surely already played the two “worst” seasons of his career. Now that Oilers and their fans have made the investment, it’s time to start reaping the return. I anticipate Smid building off of last year’s strong finish – he was an even player the last 14 games after returning (prematurely) from his knee injury, despite being paired with the guy many/most saw as Edmonton’s weakest defender, Matt Greene -- and become at least a break-even player in 2008-09.


Trivia answer: Ryan Sittler ( Philadelphia, 7th overall,1992) and Brent Krahn (Calgary, 6th overall, 2000)]

A Strapping Young Ladi

This is Not Chris Pronger. “Not Chris” is a real ugly name that carries a lot of baggage for an innocent lad, so I prefer to just call him Ladi for short.

The Ladi pictured above was playing his first professional season at age 19, with Portland Pirates of the AHL. After that season the highly-rated Ducks' prospect was one of several assets traded for the real Chris Pronger in a deal that was greeted with collective disappointment and derision by Oiler fans already devastated by a Game 7 loss in the Stanley Cup Finals. The best player to wear Oiler silks since Hall of Famers Mark Messier, Glenn Anderson and Grant Fuhr all left town in the fall of ’91, Pronger had delivered on his early promise by leading the Oilers within a bounce of the Holy Grail. Then, just as suddenly as he arrived, he was gone.

Much of that disappointment was refracted on the two actual players that were included in the return, Ladi and Joffrey. The expectations were immense, unrealistic; Joffrey wilted under the pressure. Young Ladi, meanwhile, went about his business of apprenticing in the toughest position in the best league in the world under the microscope of a hockey-mad town.

Over the next two seasons Ladi proved fairly conclusively that he is Not Chris Pronger. However, when he was 20 and 21 Chris Pronger wasn’t exactly Chris Pronger either, at least not the one we’ve grown to love and hate. While the two have little in common, it’s instructive to compare their early career results:

Age 19:
Pronger (Hartford, NHL): 81 GP, 5-25-30
Smid (Portland, AHL): 71 GP, 3-25-28

OK, so Chris was in the NHL and Not Chris was in the Not NHL, but still, not a bad debut for both as teenage pros.

Age 20:
Pronger (Hartford, NHL): 43 GP, 5-9-14
Smid (Edmonton, NHL): 77 GP, 3-7-10

Age 21
Pronger (St. Louis, NHL): 78 GP, 7-18-25
Smid (Edmonton, NHL): 65 GP, 0-4-4

Pronger was clearly emerging as the better offensive player at this point – was there any doubt? But there’s more to the game than offence. Let’s look a little further:

Age 20:
Pronger: +29/-41 = -12 (Hartford = -14)
Smid: +40/-56 = -16 (Edmonton = -53)

Age 21:
Pronger: +57/-75 = -18 (St. Louis = -29)
Smid: +31/-46 = -15 (Edmonton = -27)
---

Age 20/21 totals:
Pronger: 121 GP, +86/-116 = -30 (Team = -43)
Smid: 142 GP, +71/-102 = -31 (Team = -80)

We don’t know Pronger’s ice time or quality of opposition/teammate, but based as a percentage of team goals he was clearly getting more ice by his first year in St. Loo. Equally clearly, he was still a student in the School of Hard Knocks.

Age 22:
Pronger: +77/-62 = +15
Smid: ?????

This is the point in his career where young Pronger began to assert himself. Ladi might reasonably be expected to do the same, although with 60 fewer games of NHL experience he may yet be a little further down the curve. Indeed, there’s every chance he will always be lower down the curve; Pronger developed into an elite blueliner. My only point is that it’s much too early to declare that Ladi won’t/can’t do the same.
***

First impressions captured last night were largely positive. On a night I was trying to focus on Oiler newcomers, young Ladi kept catching my eye. A few vignettes:

 Ladi pounces on a loose puck at his own blueline, wheels, and fires a perfect tape-to-tape pass hitting a teammate breaking over the Florida line.
 Ladi recovers the puck on the defensive LW hash marks, a Florida player coming hard on the forecheck. Ladi eats the puck, takes the check and while rolling off it delivers a crisp 15-footer up the boards to the supporting LW who walks the puck out of the zone.
 With his left-winger in a losing battle at the offensive hash marks, Ladi jumps up the boards, grabs the puck, and takes it hard behind the net. He suddenly slams on the brakes, totally losing the guy checking him (#50, officially listed in the program as Some Random Dude, but impressive nonetheless), then takes the puck back out the short side and tries to jam it home. The whistle blows just as Tyler Spurgeon arrives to stuff the rebound. No goal, but a tremendous play all the same.
 Walking out of his own zone, Ladi tries an ill-advised D-to-D pass that deflects off a forechecking Panther, resulting in a turnover. Harmless, but “unnecessary” according to the ever-watchful Ray Ferraro.
 On the PK Ladi loses his stick in a battle for the puck. He battles his man on the edge of the crease, accepts Robert Nilsson’s offer of an emergency stick, then after a few more nervous seconds puts the borrowed twig to good use, diving to a loose puck and clearing the zone.
 Ladi loses his man at the edge of the crease but there is no rebound and no problem. Coming in at the whistle, Ladi grabs the guy by the face and pulls him away from the crease area, then proceeds to do show off his speed bag technique with a few gloved punches. Two minutes for getting burned. That said, the guy definitely paid the price and I didn't entirely mind the penalty.
 Ladi “falls asleep” (Ferraro) and lets his man get behind him for a half-scoring chance.
 Ladi jumps into the neutral zone and joins the rush, turning it into a 3-on-2. Controlling the puck in the middle of the ice, Ladi walks in and dishes a solid tape-to-tape pass to the LW for a shot that fails.

In other words, no shortage of mistakes, but no shortage of impressive plays either. While the offensive moves were an unexpected and most pleasant surprise, what I was looking for most of all was assertiveness and confidence, and I saw plenty of both. Young Ladi is maturing into a man, a 6'3" 226 lb. mean mofo of a man, and he looks ready and eager to make the next step. Still very much a construction project, he'll be an interesting player to watch in 2008-09.