2009-01-02

The Zorg Element



This is Zorg Stortini, hired gun of the Edmonton Oilers. He's a funny looking fellow whose contribution is often misunderstood and frequently underappreciated.

Zorg bleeds Oiler blue, yet is often badmouthed by fans of his own team. Just the other day, Oilogosphere stalwart Andy Grabia made the following drive-by analysis:

I can't take any team with Zach Stortini on it seriously. Or any organization that considers him a Top 12 forward. I just can't.
A while back, the esteemed Lowetide made the following comments in his early season report card:

30%: Zack Stortini- Well, we knew he wasn't going to have a season like last year but I thought he'd be more than Wilfredo Tejada. I don't think it's his fault, really. Giving Stortini at-bats when he clearly doesn't give you offense is like playing Bob Natal at first base: he can do it, but does it help you? You'd have to write a 4,000 word essay on how being purely physical overwhelms putting up even a dribble of offense with the minutes Zack is getting.
Now it's not like I'm going to write a 4,000 word essay -- right??? -- but at the time I defended Zorg with these words:

I think "incomplete" would be a much fairer mark than 30 frickin percent for a guy who has only received 70 minutes TOI. Hard to deliver
offence from the pressbox or the bench. ... Zack's track record is that the more regularly he plays, the better he plays. Instead, MacT screwed around with the Pisani at centre experiment at the expense of young players including Brodziak, Pouliot, and Stortini.
Zorg's season continued in fits and spurts until he was inserted into the line-up on Dec. 13 against Vancouver, a team he has driven crazy his whole career. Since then he has played 9 games in a row, with a total ice time of 64:30, or slightly over 7 minutes per. All but 7 seconds of that was at even strength.

Zorg is an interesting player to track in that any line he's on is by definition the fourth line. Just as the Hemsky Line is the first regardless of who the other guys on it may be, the same may be said about the Stortini Line at the other end of the roster. Not that there's anything wrong with that; a healthy fourth line is critical to a team's success in my view.

Right now the canary in the coal mine is alive and well. Check out these numbers for those 9 games:

1G + 1A = 2P (1.86 P/60)
+3/-1 = +2
+2.79/-0.93 = +1.86/60
25 SoGF ON / 26 SoGA ON = -1 differential
16 hits
0 giveaways
1 takeaway
2 blocked shots
2-0 = 100% faceoffs

The usual caveat about small number statistics applies, but this looks like a typical 9-game stretch from last year's second half when even his many detractors had to admit Zorg was helping the club. The only large numbers in Zorg's stats apply to the physical side of the game: height, weight, hits, penalties, and fights. These are elements otherwise in very short supply on this team, that Zorg brings in spades.

For example, in those 9 games the Oilers landed a total of 128 hits. Stortini delivered fully 12.5% of those, in roughly 2.5% of the total individual ice time.

Let's look at that aspect of the game over the course of the season to date:

Hits/60 (20+ GP)
----------------
13.3 Stortini
6.8 Smid
6.4 Cole
6.2 Moreau
5.2 Strudwick
3.7 Staios
3.6 Pouliot
3.5 Penner
2.8 Brodziak
2.7 Cogliano
2.5 Nilsson
2.2 Souray
1.9 Grebsehkov
1.6 Gilbert
1.5 Visnovsky
1.2 Horcoff
0.9 Gagner
0.8 Hemsky

... meaning Zorg's hit rate is equal to the NEXT TWO highest regular Oilers. A few of those hits have been beauties, such as those on Shane O'Brien and Todd Fedoruk to name two.

Some of the small-number statistics are impressive by their very smallness. For example, giveaways. Zorg had none during that 9-game stretch; in fact he has had none to date in the entire season. Of the other 20-game Oilers, Strudwick has 7, Pouliot 8, everybody else at least 14. Zorg has Zero.

Then there's this one. A while back BCB made an insightful post in his blog Bringing Back the Glory about "aggressive" vs. "lazy" penalties. Accepting his definitions of what constitues each category (and there are some acknowledged gray areas), the Oilers as a team take about 2 lazy penalties for each aggressive one.


So far this season, Zorg leads the club with 87 PiM as befits his position description. In total he has taken 19 penalties, with the following breakdown: 19 aggressive penalties, 0 lazy penalties.

I would conclude here is a guy who understands what his job is. The vast majority of his penalties are coincidental of course, but the remainder are of the charging and roughing type, establishing a physical presence, standing up for teammates. Not a single obstruction foul for the entire season. It's kind of amazing when you think about it.

Heaven knows the Oilers, like all teams, need a physical presence. Indeed, Oilers have been branded a small, soft team. Zorg Stortini addresses a very major need on this club, and he does so while holding his own on the ice, by contributing a little bit and by giving away absolutely nothing. He can play in my Top 12 any day.

2009-01-01

Flames 6, Oilers 4 -- player gradings

I have offered to assist in David Staples' latest project over at Cult of Hockey, namely to grade the Oilers' players on a game-by-game basis. This is a collective effort, I'm just one member of a team of markers.

The scoring system is as follows: 10, perfect game; 9, extraordinary game; 8, great game; 7, good game; 6, above average game; 5, average game; 4, below average game; 3, bad game; 2, terrible game; 1, trade this player or send him to the minors.
***


This game was different from the Ottawa game and yet in many ways it was the same. Unlike the home contest against the sad sack Sens playing their third game in four nights on a western road trip, this time it was the Oilers who were the tired road team against a rested home favourite. And whereas the Oilers couldn't get the lead against Ottawa, against the Flames they couldn't hold the lead.

However, both games were tied after both the first and second periods, and both games were lost in the third. Both times the Oilers took one penalty in the third, and both times they didn't even come close to killing it. Instead, it killed them.

Having watched the PK unit fritter away two more games with a dreadful 4-for-8 record, I am running out of patience with a group of players who can't kill penalties (or avoid taking unnecessary ones), with a coaching staff that can't seem to teach the skill or the system, and with a management team which continues to sit on its hands while a gaping flaw seriously damages any playoff hopes this squad might have. The Oilers have allowed a league worst 1.17 PPGA/G; 28 clubs are at 1.00 or better, with only defensive lightweight Atlanta even in the same area code in terms of ineptitude. Attention: Management, this is a serious problem.

A not unrelated problem concerns faceoffs, where Oilers rank 27th in the NHL. For the second straight night the Oilers won just 38% of their draws and began far too many plays, including both special teams, without the puck. Again it's a puzzle that this skill is neither being successfully taught or addressed by way of player acquisition.

With that off my chest, on to the player ratings of another New Year's Eve loss in Calgary, an uneven performance in which two lines played well and two did not:
***


Ladislav Smid - 5: A solid, safe night with 0 GA in 16 minutes of action. Corsi number of -10 suggests play was in the bad end a little too often. Nice to hear Ray Ferraro confirm my observation of Smid's emerging confidence, especially in the area of breakout passes.

Shawn Horcoff - 3: A grisly night for my favourite Oiler. Was officially -3 in 14:07 at EV, was on for 2 more GA in 3:41 SH, while generating 0 GF in 5:20 on the PP. Bottom line, Oilers were outscored 5-0 in the 23 minutes Horcoff was on the ice. A lot of that was against Iginla's line, sure; Jarome himself schooled Horcoff by a similar 5-0 count in the faceoff circle, including all three faceoffs that immediately preceded the three Flames' powerplay goals. Horc finished the night just 8-16, 33% in the circle. His 3 shots on goal all came late with the Oilers down by 2 and shooting from everywhere; he had none with the game on the line. ES Corsi was -8. Had a hit, a takeaway and 2 blocks so was trying hard on the defensive side of the puck, but didn't get it done.

Robert Nilsson - 7: Was the polar opposite of Horcoff, as the Oilers outscored Calgary 4-0 in the 16:24 Nilsson was on the ice. Scored a powerplay goal, otherwise not involved in the scoring other than contributing to the flow of an effective line. Decent night defensively as well. Always seems to play well in his home town. Wish I could say the same of a more of his teammates.

Andrew Cogliano - 4: 2 shots, 2 blocks, 3 hits = a decent effort. Struggled in the circle yet again (2-8, 20%), and his line was badly outshot against medium opposition.

Ethan Moreau - 3: Compiled a spectacularly bad Corsi number of -17 in just 11:20 of EV play, as Calgary attempted 24 shots in that time, Oilers just 7. Was also burned on the decisive PPGA when Iginla outmuscled both him and Cole at the Oiler blueline. Was the second best captain on the ice by a very wide margin.

Steve Staios - 3: -1 in 14:26 at EV, and on for all 3 Calgary PPG in just 4:55 SH. Has struggled badly on the PK all year, both to my eye and statistically.

Erik Cole - 6: Has been Oilers' best player of late. 1-1-2, +2, with a team-leading 6 shots and 3 hits. Alas, like many Oilers, had a tough night on special teams, getting burned for the critical GA in just 1:27 SH TOI, and producing nothing in 5:11 on the PP.

Dustin Penner - 4: Played a much stronger and more involved game than against Ottawa, but didn't get it done. -2.


Dwayne Roloson - 4: Had enough offensive support to at least earn one standings point but didn't get it done. Aucoin's tying goal through his legs was a bit weak, and Boyd's 5-3 goal off a sloppy rebound killed any hope, and eventually stood up as the game winner. Hard to blame him on Iginla's darts, but didn't make the Big save either.

Denis Grebeshkov - 7: High event game to put it mildly. "Gretzbeshkov" was in on every Oiler goal (1-3-4), but was on for one EV GA, one PP GA, and was himself in the box for the game-turning 4-3 goal early in the third. Oilers outshot Calgary 17-10 at EV with Grebs on the ice.

Jason Strudwick - 7: The fourth line was the least of Oilers worries on this night. Oilers outshot Calgary 4-0 with Strudwick on the ice. Had a hit, a takeaway, and absolutely no negative events.

Sheldon Souray - 3: Similar night to Horcoff. -2 at EV, 2 GA in 3:43 SH TOI, and 0 GF in 7:04 on the PP. Moreover, was sitting in the box himself for Aucoin's tying goal after taking a silly delay of game penalty with a 150-foot slapshot over the glass. Ugly night all the way around.

Zack Stortini - 7: Like Strudwick had a very solid, safe game on the fourth line. On a night the team Corsi number was -10, Stortini posted a team leading +7 in his 8 minutes, allowing just 1 attempted shot to the Flames against 8 for the good guys. A shot, a couple of hits, and no negative events and no worries. Moved the puck sharply and in the right direction all night.

Kyle Brodziak - 7: Centred that effective fourth line, posting 3 shots, 3 hits, and 3 blocks. His Corsi of +1 indicates he did less well in spot duty on other lines. At 9-9, 50% was the best of the Oilers in the faceoff circle, and was one of the few PKers who didn't get burned for a GA.
Gilbert Brule - 3: Posted an unflattering Corsi of -13 in just 8:45, and took a rockhead tripping penalty off a lost offensive zone faceoff which led to the 2-2 goal. Didn't have much jump, perhaps due to a late-night call-up and all-day flight.

Lubomir Visnovsky - 6: Decent night at EV, scored a goal, a couple of shots, 4 blocks. But like everybody on the first PP unit, didn't get anything done in 6:55.

Tom Gilbert - 6: Had a far more effective game than his regular partner Souray, contributing an assist on a second-unit powerplay goal and another on Cole's meaningless late tally. Wasn't on for a Calgary goal in his 17:21.

Liam Reddox - 3: Tried hard (3 hits), but was outclassed in a match-up against Cammalleri. Oilers were outshot 7-2 with Reddox on the ice, and outscored 2-0. Brutal night for the rejigged "first" line on a night the Oilers badly missed Ales Hemsky.

Sam Gagner - 7: Centred the club's strongest line, posting 0-2-2, +2. Was on the ice for all 4 Oiler goals and just the empty net GA. Took another in a troublesome series of penalties, which happened to be one of the two penalties the Oil actually killed off. This is one team that can't afford bad penalties, though, and Sam needs to nip this trend in the bud.


Senators 3, Oilers 2 -- player gradings

I have offered to assist in David Staples' latest project over at Cult of Hockey, namely to grade the Oilers' players on a game-by-game basis. This is a collective effort, I'm just one member of a team of markers.

The scoring system is as follows: 10, perfect game; 9, extraordinary game; 8, great game; 7, good game; 6, above average game; 5, average game; 4, below average game; 3, bad game; 2, terrible game; 1, trade this player or send him to the minors.
***


I had the opportunity to attend the game Tuesday night and found it frustrating in the extreme as the Oilers found a way to lose, in regulation, to a team that hadn't won a road game in two months. This continues a frustrating pattern of regulation home losses to (other?) non-playoff teams -- Toronto, L.A., Florida, now Ottawa. The Oilers need to be making hay in such games, and their lack of offence in the friendly confines is hard to fathom, and their seeming unwillingness to work as hard as the other guys unacceptable. Last night Ottawa played with far more determination and desperation, and deserved the two points. Oilers needed a couple of guys to step up in the absence of Hemsky, and instead played uninspired hockey for the most part, mustering just 7 shots in the first 33 minutes. Oilers did generate a number of scoring chances, but far too often shot wide, fanned on the puck, or didn't get the bounce. The squad lost too many puck battles, starting in the faceoff circle where they collectively went 17-28, 38%, including one that led directly to a GA and none that resulted in any offensive chances.
***

Ladislav Smid - 5: Looking comfortable, competent and at times commanding in the third pairing. Night's work was undone by a poor read on Ottawa's first goal in which Smid drifted into the low slot to cover Heatley (who was briefly open and calling for a pass) while neglecting Spezza who slipped in behind him to tap in Alfredsson's perfectly timed pass.

Shawn Horcoff - 7: Battled Ottawa's top guns to a standstill (+2/-2) and generated some decent chemistry with Reddox. Tough night in the circle, where he fared well in the neutral zone (4-2, 67%) but poorly where it mattered (3-7, 30%). Cleanly lost the faceoff to Spezza and didn't obstruct the big man from driving to the net where he ultimately scored the game's first goal.


Robert Nilsson - 5: Had a fine game without the puck, but did absolutely nothing with it. Row-bert just isn't feeling it these days. 3 hits, 0 shots.

Andrew Cogliano - 4: Always impresses with his speed through the neutral zone but his line too delivered not much in the offensive zone. His continued poor performance in the faceoff circle (1-5, 17%) hamstrings his line, which didn't start once from an own-zone draw. Got sucked out of position on the powerplay GA that decided the game in Ottawa's favour.

Ethan Moreau - 5: Also got burned on the GWG when the Oilers PK lost its shape yet again, allowing a free shot from the slot. Skated hard, was rewarded with a goal and very nearly another. 0 hits.

Steve Staios - 5: No problems with effort as usual, but coverage problems in the defensive zone persist. Was victimized by Alfredsson on Ottawa's first goal.

Erik Cole - 6: Skated miles, worked hard. Led the Oilers forwards in TOI (21:23) and all Oilers in hits (4) and attempted shots (8). Hit the crossbar on a weird breakaway from the corner, increasing what must surely be his league lead in goalposts hit. His iron-to-net ratio is out of this world. Still, Cole seems to be a one-man show out there at times, and for all his effort his line didn't really click.

Dustin Penner - 3: Seemed to have gotten out of the wrong side of bed. It was one of those days when his big body was uncoordinated, as pass after pass seemed to go right through his stick. Normally a master of body positioning, Penner was a day late and a dollar short to far too many puck battles, losing far more than his share. Most irksome of all was his unwillingness to compensate by throwing his big body around a little bit. Had a nice deflection which led to Reddox's goal, but Oilers needed way more from the big man. 3 missed shots, 4 giveaways, -1.

Mathieu Garon - 6: A solid night's work for the most part, although 3 GA on 25 shots is nothing special. Did make a number of fine stops, including a dazzling paddle save off of Spezza in the first. Trouble handling the puck

Denis Grebeshkov - 6: Solid, mostly uneventful night. He makes a lot of plays with his tremendous skating ability, especially laterally.

Jason Strudwick - 5: I'm liking Strudwick as a forward more than I thought I would, which is to say MUCH more than I do as a defenceman. His lack of speed is a detriment but he played a strong game along the wall, moving the puck safely and taking the body. Safe, but limited.

Sheldon Souray - 6: Didn't get much chance to strut his stuff on the powerplay, as the zebras pocketed their whistles for the most part. When they finally remembered where they were, Souray was the victim of a very borderline holding penalty which ultimately cost the Oilers the game. Also screened Garon on Alfredsson's goal. Sheldon did move the puck effectively for the most part, and Oilers outshot Ottawa 12-5 while he was on the ice.

Zack Stortini - 6: The crowd was really buzzing anytime Zack was out there, especially on the forecheck where he was winning lots of races to the puck and subsequent puck battles on the end-board cycle. He is far from the best skater on the team, but nobody skates harder. on this night his effort stood out like a sore thumb. To my eye had way more than the 1 official hit he was credited with, presumably the solid crunch on Neil. Would have had a 7 except for an unnecessary penalty.

Kyle Brodziak - 6: A versatile night in which he centred an effective fourth line, spotted in on the wing in Pouliot's absence, and played well on the PK where he led Oiler forwards in TOI. A solid 60% in just 5 faceoffs (there were just 45 total on the night). 0 shots, however.

Lubomir Visnovsky - 6: Played well enough but didn't bring enough offence on a night Oilers needed some. None of his four attempted shots even hit the net. He and Grebs played effectively as a pair, with each covering off the other's defensive gaffes.

Tom Gilbert - 7: An effective night with 4 shots, 2 blocks, +1 and a Corsi of +10. Landed a couple of beauty body checks in the first, neither of which seemed to register with the RTSS counter for whatever reason. When Gilbert does decide to step up as a surprise tactic he can be an effective hitter.

Marc Pouliot - 5: Graded on half a game (5:41) in which he generated 0 shots, hits, or positives or negatives of any type. Left himself exposed for the big hit, although in his defence he certainly took the hit to make the play. Oilers were even more discombobulated after he left the game.

Liam Reddox - 6: A surprise choice to replace Hemsky on the first line, generated nothing offensively before scoring on a zero-foot shot to tie the score 2-2 late in the second. Was a new man after that and played a real solid third.

Sam Gagner - 4: Did not build on his fine performance against Nashville. Had plenty of opportunity in 20:40 TOI (more than Horcoff!), but created next to nothing with just 1 shot -- in fact the Oilers as a team had just 5 in Gagner's 20 minutes. 2 giveaways, and was just 5-9, 36% on a night Oilers got owned in the faceoff circle (again). Managed to stay out of the sinbin after a recent rash of bad penalties (6 minors in 3 games).

2008-12-30

Anniversaries VIII: 50 in 39


It was a magic time. If you didn't live through it, it's hard to comprehend what a record-breaking machine Wayne Gretzky was. He didn't just break records, he destroyed them with a flair for the dramatic. Examples:

-- Gretzky scored his first 1000 points in just 424 games. The second fastest to the mark, Guy Lafleur, needed 720 games. The night Gretzky hit the 1000 mark, he piled in 5 more points as a down payment on the next 1000.

-- On April 9, 1987, Gretzky started the night tied with Jean Beliveau for the most points in the Stanley Cup playoffs, 176. By night's end Gretzky had tied another playoff record, his own mark of 7 points in a playoff game, and was 7 points clear of Beliveau. Oilers beat the Kings 13-3, setting a couple of still-extant team records en route to their first victory in what became their third Stanley Cup.

-- On February 24, 1982, Gretzky broke Phil Esposito's record for goals in a season by scoring his 77th, 78th, and 79th goals in the last seven minutes of the third period. His natural hat trick blew open a 3-3 tie into a 6-3 Oiler celebration, and capped a streak of four consecutive five-point nights for the Great One as he relentlessly overcame Esposito's awesome record with six weeks to spare.

Of all the records, the most spectacular run had to be earlier in that 1981-82 season when Gretzky challenged and ultimately demolished the most fabled record in hockey, Rocket Richard's 50 goals in 50 games. The previous season the great Mike Bossy had equalled Richard's mark which had stood unchallenged for 35 seasons.

It was clear in the fall of '81 that Gretzky had the mark in his sights. After a run of 7 goals in 7 periods in late November, including his second four-goal game of the season, Gretzky reached 31 goals early in Game 26. For the rest of that game and the next four Gretzky slumped, scoring nary a goal -- albeit with 13 (!!) assists -- to fall to just 1 goal ahead of the goal-a-game pace. In the next four games he remained there, scoring exactly one goal in each and reaching 35 goals in 34 games as the Oilers began a five game Crhistmas home stand. It looked like it would be nip and tuck for several more weeks, maybe until Games 49 and 50 in late January.

I was already a big believer in the Great One, predicting to my season ticket mates on opening night that he would score 200 points that season in what developed into an audacious, hellacious bet. Supremely confident as I was in the young man's magic, that prediction ultimately turned out to be conservative (I guessed "only" 80-120-200, whereas he really went 92-120-212 in yet another demolition job not just of records but of all reason). Even I, staunch predictor of a goal-a-game for the season, could never have guessed the dramatics that would be packed into that five-game stand.

What did happen is emblazoned in my memory as one of the most incredible sustained displays of individual domination that I've ever seen. By the time the home stand was over, the Great One had lit the lamp an incredible 15 times, adding a not-inconsequential 10 assists for 25 points. I could cite you his game-by-game numbers chapter and verse, but you can see for yourself courtesy the Hockey Summary Project, linked below:

December 19 - Oilers 9, North Stars 6:
3-4-7
December 20 - Flames 7, Oilers 5:
2-1-3
December 23 - Oilers 6, Canucks 1:
1-3-4
December 27 - Oilers 10, Kings 3:
4-1-5

By December 30, 27 years ago today, Gretz stood at 45 in 38 and it was clear the record was going to fall. As my mates and I made the 7-minute walk from our (still free!) parking spot to the Coliseum, we discussed the upcoming sked and guessed how many more games it would take. Tonight's opponent was no Campbell Conference softie but the perennial powerhouse Philadelphia Flyers. Yet suddenly I blurted out, "You know, it's not impossible, he only needs five" ...

Did I mention this was a magic time? Like George Orr in "The Lathe of Heaven", one merely needed to imagine the dream for it to come true. Every draft prospect seemingly developed into a Hall of Famer, the owner promised and delivered a Stanley Cup within 5 years, and Wayne Gretzky wrote scripts that would have been too silly for Hollywood but which boggled the mind in reality.

And so it was on December 30, 1981, a date that will forever be locked in hockey lore:
December 30 - Oilers 7, Flyers 5:
5-1-6

Gretzky scored twice in the first period, then beat Pete Peeters once more in each of the second and third taking him to 49, before notching his 50th on a dramatic empty netter with just 3 seconds remaining to clinch an incredible 7-5 Oilers victory. His 50th was set up by Grant Fuhr and Glenn Anderson and scored past a diving Bill Barber, Hockey Hall of Famers all, but at that moment, the 20-year-old Gretzky was a colossus who stood alone astride his sport like few -- Babe Ruth, Pele, Michael Jordan, Lance Armstrong, Tiger Woods -- ever have.

Today I had the privilege of watching that entire game for the first time since I attended the actual game. It's disc #1 in the new DVD set of the Oilers' 10 greatest games that showed up under the tree the other day. To see Gretzky's performance in the context of the entire game is much more compelling than just a highlight-reel goal, goal, goal, goal, empty net goal. It is essential viewing for those who didn't live through it but who want to get a sense of what made Gretzky so sensationally special at such a tender age.

In this game, not unlike many others of that magic time, he generated chance after chance after great scoring chance in a transcendent display of hockey genius. I didn't document but I would bet he had at least a dozen shots on net and easily could have had 12 or 15 points if every ten-bell scoring chance went in. Peeters robbed him point blank on at least three occasions, and as usual Gretzky unselfishly dished the puck to the man in the best scoring position, even when he was temprarily "stuck" on 49 goals with time running out. He was an incredibly unselfish player in that respect, talking the talk -- "My dad always told me an assist is as good as a goal" -- and walking the walk. But he was just selfish enough to shoot himself if he was the guy in the best position ... which obviously happened fairly frequently.

Gretzky scored an NHL record 10 hat tricks in that 92-goal season, a record that has been equalled only once, by Gretzky himself in his 87-goal season two years later. He had at least one assist in all ten of those games, in fact he scored at least five points in all ten. No "soft" hat tricks like, say, 3-0-3 for the Great One; he scored goals and points in bunches.

The Great One also set a modern record during that Philly game of four, 4-goal games in one season; again a record he equalled two years later but nobody else has approached since the days of Joe Malone. Gretzky established yet a third separate mark by being the only player in the history of the game to notch consecutive games of 4+ goals, a feat even he accomplished just this once ... while under the heat of attacking, and demolishing, the greatest single record in the sport.

2008-12-27

The 82nd Spengler Cup


As a lifelong fan of international hockey, I have followed the Spengler Cup since Canada first got involved in 1984, and have watched it faithfully every year it's been televised. In my household this tourney has become a holiday staple right up there with the World Junior. A simple five-team round robin where the top two teams advance directly to a one-game final, it's a compact event that always fits in the short week between Boxing Day and New Year's Eve. The constants are the host team Davos and the itinerant collection of pan-European imports known as Team Canada, with three club teams from across Europe invited each year to fill the slate. The tourney therefore maintains a healthy mix of variety and tradition.

Whereas in the World Jr. you might get a chance to see an Oiler or two of the future, in the Spengler there always seems to be quite a few Oilers of the past. This year Team Canada features Domenic Pittis and Brad Isbister, as well as recent farmhand T.J.Kemp; Davos has Janne "Spaz" Niinimaa, Michel "The Swiss Miss" Riesen, and Tony Salmelainen; German club team ERC Ingolstadt have a couple of import defencemen from very different Oiler eras, namely Allan Rourke and Brian Muir. Cups of coffee in most cases; this tournament is just loaded with guys who were on the cusp of The Show before carving out very respectable careers over in Europe. (Full tournament rosters can be found here.)

Canada is always well-represented by enough of the same players year to year to really have established a team identity. Unlike the NHLers who all too frequently -- for reasons that continue to escape me -- snub their noses at the World Championships, Canadian imports based in Europe never refuse the invitation to play in the Spengler Cup, where it seems a great time is had by all. Former NHLers like Pittis, Hnat Domenichelli, Shawn Heins, Stacy Roest, Jeff Toms, Jean-Guy Trudel, and this year's captain Serge Aubin, seem to be there every year. With the pipeline suffused with "newcomers" who have more recently made their way to Europe like Isbister, Randy Robitaille, Rico Fata, Byron Ritchie, Joel Kwiatkowski and Ric Jackman, Canada once again has a strong team at their 25th Spengler Cup in 2008. The boys wear the Red Maple Leaf with obvious pride and have represented the country brilliantly over the past quarter century, winning 11 titles. Last year the heavy underdog Canadians rode the red-hot goaltending of former Oiler Curtis Joseph to a pair of victories over eventual KHL champions Salavat Yulaev Ufa, including a 2-1 thriller in the tournament finale.

There's never a dull moment in the beautiful and always-packed arena in Davos, but it's always electric for the Canada-Davos match in particular. Given that the three European invitees are different ever year, Canada-Davos is the best rivalry by far, and today's game before 6700 singing, chanting, cheering fans was a beauty. HC Davos is always an offence-first outfit that plays a highly-entertaining style, but today the early minutes featured lots of bad blood (both real and imagined) which brought the intensity level way up. A ding-dong affair ensued with Canada battling back from 3-0, 4-2, and 5-4 deficits, with Domenichelli scoring a "60th minute" equalizer -- courtesy an horrific Niinimaa gaffe -- to force OT and ultimately a shootout. Davos, who had earlier scored on a penalty shot, notched the only goal in "penalties" to finally decide the matter, 6-5 for the home side. Still, with their dogged comeback Canada earned a valuable standings point and at 1-0-1 remain firmly in control of their destiny.

Sunday is Canada's rest day -- every team gets one, but where it falls in the five days of the round robin is the luck of the draw -- before facing Ingolstadt on Monday and the fabled Dynamo Moskva on Tuesday in a match which will likely determine at least one of the finalists. Dynamo features no former Oilers on its roster, but a bushel of former NHLers like Karel Rachunek, Alexei Zhitnik, Peter Cajanek, Vitaly Yachmenev, Vitaly Karamnov, Mattias Weinhandl, and Canadian Eric Landry. Both remaining Canada games will be featured on the gamut of Sportsnet channels at various times around mid-day, while Wednesday morning's final will be televised live in the wee hours and, I hope, rebroadcast at a more humane hour.

Spengler Cup hockey is not NHL calibre, but it's a very decent level of men's professional hockey, with most of the games far more competitive than the round robin portion of the World Juniors. Moreover, it's a European festival of hockey that acknowledges the game's roots with the permanent inclusion of Team Canada. A great hockey tradition now in its 82nd iteration, the Spengler Cup seems like a terrific party every year; I'd sure love to check it out in person one of these years.

2008-12-21

It's the best game you can name


Where's Waldo?


Friday night the call came about 20 minutes before the opening face-off. "Bruce, something's come up, would you like a pair of tickets to the game?" My son and I had been planning to go to a sports bar to chow down on chicken wings and watch the PPV broadcast, so the mid-course correction was relatively painless.

It's rare enough that I get the pleasure of attending a live game with my son. Kevin was just 5 and beginning Tom Thumb hockey in the fall of 1993 when I gave up my Oiler season tickets after 16 mostly wonderful seasons. I watched him play hundreds of games in the next dozen years, coached him in hundreds of practices. Kevin much prefers playing the game to watching it, but we usually make it out to at least one Oilers game a year, usually around his mid-December birthday. (He turned 21 this week) So the timing was perfect.

Except we were late. By the time we had driven, parked, walked, collected our tickets and found our seats -- Row 27, top of the circle of the Oilers attacking zone -- we'd missed about 8 minutes. Score was 0-0, and by the time I thought to check out the shot clock it stood at 10-1 Oilers. That shot clock would continue to mount in bursts for both teams in a penalty-filled, action-packed affair.

The opposition were the Anaheim Ducks, once Mighty, now just another team give or take Chris Pronger (pictured above battling Dustin Penner in good times and bad). A handful of fans booed half-heartedly whenever he handled the puck, but the venom that had run through the entire building the last time I'd seen him live (in "The Return of Chuckie" game) had now largely run its course.

If this game was any indication, so has Pronger himself. While leading both teams with over 33 minutes of ice time, he was mediocre at best, anchoring a defence that allowed 53 shots on goal, himself with the worst 5v5 shots differential on either team (-7), a goal differential of -1, and a game high 5 giveaways, while none of his 4 attempted shots on goal even reached the net. As one who has watched Pronger closely his entire career -- I picked him in my keeper league pool as an 18-year-old rookie in 1993 and have had him on my team ever since -- it was one of the least influential games I've ever seen him play. On this night at least, Ladi "Fifth Asset" Smid was better.

Pronger was sitting in the penalty box when the goose eggs were broken late in the first. Alas, rather than make him pay for his transgression, the Oil committed a couple of their own in allowing a brutal shorthanded goal against. Sam Gagner made a terrible blind back pass which led directly to the Brothers Niedermayer breaking loose on a 2-on-1. Robert Nilsson, hustling back to defend, broke stride just long enough to watch the initial shot, then arrived a split second too late at the edge of the crease to take Rob Niedermayer's stick on the juicy rebound. Later Nilsson would pay the price and spend the third period on the bench, while Gagner would, as usual, escape the wrath of his coach.

Bad went to worse early in the second as the Oilers started to run around and take penalties. Ducks barely missed on two tap-in opportunities on the first powerplay chance, peppered Roloson with shots in the second, before the weasel Corey Perry made the Oil pay for the third penalty with a nice deflection off a Bobby Ryan spinnarama. 2-0.

Minutes later the game began to turn the Oilers way when Smid absolutely clocked the hated Perry with a great open ice hit. While Perry went down and stayed down, Ryan Getzlaf came to challenge Smid for the clean hit. Ladi did not refuse the invitation, removing his shielded helmet and giving Getzlaf the "let's go" motion. A linesman intervened before the fight could materialize, but the Oilers were energized by Smid's big hit and subsequent refusal to back down. The following minutes featured a parade to the penalty box on both sides. The Oilers wound up taking 8 penalties in the period with only Smid's being coincidental. Disaster nearly occurred in the last minute when Ethan Moreau took his second silly slashing penalty of the period to put Oilers 2 men down, then couldn't resist beaking off to the ref and drawing an unsportsmanlike call. Three stupid penalties in one period -- call it the Ethan Moreau Hat Trick. Somehow Oilers survived the 5-on-3 and got to the buzzer still only down 2-0.

During the intermission we went down to the "club" section beneath the stands, where it seems one can get "clubbed" even worse for concession prices. We quickly thought better of parting with any cash, but Kevin wanted to watch the players walk out of the dressing room so we hung around. A surprising number of people had the same idea, including a few puck bunnies fully decked out in their Gagner and Hemsky jerseys (with many signatures on the numbers). The doors behind the hige silver Oilers logo opened, revealing five replica Stanley Cups at the end of the hall. Soon enough, the players clumped out, large as life and seeming larger in their skates and shoulder pads. Penner, Stortini, Smid, Souray ... these are large men. People called out words of encouragement but the local warriors kept their gazes fixed straight ahead on the task at hand.

By the time the ropes were lowered and we emerged into the bottom of the lower bowl the puck was being dropped, so we ducked down and sat on the steps immediately behind the Ducks bench. For two and a half exhilarating minutes the play whirled in front of us at a dizzying speed. At such a low angle it was difficult to follow the rapid movement of the puck through the constant shift of bodies, and I empathized anew with the plight of the goaltenders. Indeed, from our angle it was difficult to catch a glimpse of Roli in a high speed game of "Where's Waldo?" as he attempted to track the puck through the swirling maze. The powerplay continued at the far end, the puck zipping from stick to stick, suddenly a shot and the clang of a post behind Roloson, but no harm done. The zone was cleared, the play zipped in front of us for a second, and as Anaheim worked it back up the ice the simple line change was elevated into an art form as first one, then the other defenceman safely but warily made his way to the Ducks bench. Again the Ducks worked it deep and crashed the net, but as Roli went down the ref's arm went up and finally the whistle blew. Bobby Ryan -- who looks like a force to be reckoned with btw -- had been caught for the game's third goaltender interference penalty.

Rather than return to our seats Kevin and I found an empty pair of aisle seats about 15 rows above the Ducks blueline and enjoyed the rest of the game from there. We certainly chose the right end to sit in; the Oilers began to surge, and the tiring Ducks beat a steady path to the penalty box. The two-goal deficit seemed insurmountable with Jonas Hiller playing brilliantly in the Ducks goal, but finally there was a breakthrough from a most unexpected source.

The fourth line had been nailed to the bench with all the penalties, but just past the 6-minute mark Zack Stortini and Jason Strudwick took the ice for the first time in a full period. Within seconds Stortini ran Pronger with a clean bodycheck, forcing the play into Anaheim's zone. As Stortini charged towards the goal mouth a puck was shot into the melee, bouncing off Zack's skate and right onto the stick of Kyle Brodziak who buried it into the top corner. The crowd erupted in a frenzy, the shutout broken. A 23-second shift by the scrubs, and wouldn't you know but the Oilers were back in the game.

Minutes later the Ducks young star Ryan Getzlaf went off for interference, and seconds later their old star Scott Niedermayer joined him in the box for crosschecking Sam Gagner on an impressive burst to the goal. Surely even the Oilers couldn't blow a 2-man advantage for 1:51? Oh, of course they could, and they did, with lots of help from Hiller who made two tremendous stops off of patented Horcoff one-timers. The man's lateral motion is just sick. As Gagner lost a draw which frittered away the last seconds of the powerplay, the night's best hope seemed lost, only to be renewed when Mr. Kristi Yamaguchi (Bret Hedican) took yet another penalty for carelessly dumping the puck over the glass. I've seen enough hockey to realize this would be the one to burn the Ducks, and sure enough, within a few seconds the impromptu PP line of Pouliot, Gagner and Cole (9 goals among them on the season) had combined for the equalizer, as Cole batted a rebound out of mid-air and into the net to break a season-long drought at Rexall.

The Oilers continued to pour it on and the Ducks to hang on. Yet another penalty in the late minutes saw the Oilers peppering Hiller with shot after shot, 6 in all including three wicked slappers by Souray and two by Visnovsky. Hiller stared them down.

The buzzer assured the Oilers of their first point in a frustrating week, and on to overtime we went. In 4v4 play MacT sent out ever-changing twosomes up front: 89-26 ; 13-78 ; 10-83; 13-89 ; 13-26 ; 83-26 ; 10-13 ; 89-83 all got time together. Cole, strong all night and flying since his goal, had the best chance, wiring a slap shot past Hiller but off the inside of the post. The crowd raised their voice as one at the opportunity, letting out a mighty "Oh-h-h-h!!!" of despond as the puck clanked off the iron.

Again the buzzer sounded without resolution, so on to the shootout we went. The weasel Perry scored on a nifty deke on the first attempt, and that was all she wrote. Roloson made fine plays to thwart Getzlaf and Ryan to keep hope alive, but all three Oilers shooters made weak attempts and never threatened to score. Both Pouliot and Hemsky made slow-motion moves to the backhand and couldn't lift the puck into the tiny hole that may have been available up top. As the last shooter, "shootout specialist" Sam Gagner, approached the puck the crowd all rose from their seats. Alas, Sam wasn't up to the occasion, bobbling the puck right off the hop, altering both his flight path and his stickhandling confidence, and he fired weakly into Hiller's blocker to end with a whimper what had been a slambang affair.

Oilers have now won just 2 of their last 10 at home, an unacceptable streak at any point of any season. Once again their special teams had been their undoing: they won the even-strength game 1-0, held Anaheim to one PP goal in 8 attempts, but ruined it by scoring just 1 of 10 powerplays of their own while allowing the killer shortie against. The other "special team", the shootout squad, didn't deliver either.

Still, it was tough to complain. Even with the Bettman-era anticlimax the game was great, the price was right, and the time with my son was well spent. A highlight moment came in the second period when Kevin suddenly fixated on George Parros and his infamous moustache, which he labelled "right out of the '80s". ("Ouch!" I remembered) Right on cue Parros jumped over the blue line ahead of the play forcing an offside whistle. A couple rows below us a leatherlung hollered: "Hey Parros! Your moustache went offside!" You had to be there, but the timing was perfect, and Kevin laughed until the tears rolled. The good times rolled right along with them.

2008-12-11

Tracking Ladi II


At the beginning of the season I identified Ladislav Smid as a player of interest. A third of the way into the campaign, his development has been derailed somewhat by a concussion and complicated by Craig MacTavish's seeming preference for a marginal veteran (Jason Strudwick) over the emerging youngster. Still, there's a big enough data set to see how Ladi stacks up in the team's hierarchy.

As we did in part one of this series, let's start again with stats compiled by Gabe Desjardins of Behind the Net:

GA ON/60
--------
0.43 Ladislav Smid (12 GP)
1.36 Lubomir Visnovsky (25 GP)
2.23 Steve Staios (24 GP)
2.31 Jason Strudwick (22 GP)
2.33 Denis Grebeshkov (22 GP)
2.39 Sheldon Souray (24 GP)
3.24 Tom Gilbert (25 GP)

+-/60
-----
+0.96 Visnovsky
+0.48 Souray
+0.42 Smid
+-0.0 Grebeshkov
-0.15 Gilbert
-0.56 Staios
-1.16 Strudwick

QualComp
--------
+0.06 Smid
+0.04 Gilbert
+0.03 Souray
+0.03 Grebeshkov
+0.02 Visnovsky
+0.01 Strudwick
+-0.0 Staios

QualTeam
--------
+0.32 Souray
+0.25 Visnovsky
+0.14 Grebeshkov
+0.10 Gilbert
-0.12 Smid
-0.21 Staios
-0.26 Strudwick

---

It would appear the last category is affected by defence partner, given that for the most part the top two on the list have played together, as have the next two, with the bottom three mostly combining as the third pairing and largely playing with one of the other two. Be that as it may, from the QualComp metric Smid has played the toughest foes on the club, Staios and Strudwick the weakest.

Since the top four are pretty well defined on this club anyway I'll simply look at 5-24-43 from here on.

ES TOI (from HockeyAnalysis.com)
------
Staios 341:44

-- w. Strudwick 213:56 (63%)
-- w. Smid 65:02 (19%)

Strudwick 275:30
-- w. Staios 213:56 (78%)
-- w. Smid 26:31 (10%)

Smid 141:01
-- w. Staios 65:02 (46%)
-- w. Strudwick 26:31 (19%)
---

As the de facto 7th guy Smid filled in for both Staios and Strudwick when both missed time for various reasons, so he wound up on the third pairing naturally. He also got a little time with Visnovsky when Souray was out, and a little more with Gilbert when Grebs was out, as MacT clearly didn't want to mess with the mighty pairing of Staios and Strudwick. And when all 7 have been healthy, Smid has been the choice of healthy scratch for reasons that continue to escape me entirely. Hockeyanalysis.com provides the evidence:


GF/GA per 20
------------
Staios w . Smid: +0.000 / -0.000 = EVEN
Staios w/o Smid: +0.723 / -1.012 = -0.289
Smid w/o Staios: +0.526 / -0.263 = +0.263

Strudwick w . Smid: +0.000 / -0.000 = EVEN
Strudwick w/o Smid: +0.402 / -0.964 = -0.562
Smid w/o Strudwick: +0.349 / -0.175 = +0.174

Staios w. Strudwick: +0.374 / -1.028 = -0.654
Staios w/o Struds: +0.939 / -0.469 = +0.470
Struds w/o Staios: +0.325 / -0.325 = EVEN

---

That's per period, meaning that for every 60 minutes they play together, Staios and Strudwick have been outscored by 2 goals. Either on his own has been OK, and either with Smid has pitched zeroes. Staios is +6/-3 = +3 without Strudwick, +4/-11 = -7 with him. My eyes have not been deceiving me: this partnership has struggled.

But GF/GA are small number statistics (esp. for Smid!), so let's avail ourselves of the ES shots data from Timeonice.com, and prorate them to the above ES ice time. I prefer per/60:

SF/SA per 60
------------
Smid overall: +29.8 / -31.9 = -2.1
Staios overall: +22.4 / -33.5 = -11.1
Strudwick overall: +18.9 / -36.2 = -17.3

Staios w . Smid: +29.3 / -31.4 = -2.1
Staios w/o Smid: +20.1 / -33.0 = -12.9
Smid w/o Staios: +30.0 / -32.4 = -2.4

Strudwick w . Smid: +29.4 / -43.0 = -13.6
Strudwick w/o Smid: +17.8 / -35.4 = -17.6
Smid w/o Strudwick: +29.9 / -29.3 = +0.6

Staios w . Strudwick: +18.2 / -34.2 = -16.0
Staios w/o Strudwick: +29.6 / -32.4 = -2.6
Strudwick w/o Staios: +21.4/ -42.9 = -21.5

---

I have nothing at all against Jason Strudwick, but I just don't see any way to interpret the above except to conclude he stinks at evens. As a pair, he and Staios have been brutal, outshot 34-18 per 60 minutes and outscored 3-1. Without Staios, Strudwick's performance has been even worse, whereas Staios at least gets up near the waterline. Smid, meanwhile, tools along at about +30/-30 with everybody, except Strudwick where his shots against rate just plummets into the ghastly mid-40s.

Finally, a hodge podge of other "new statistics". Again from Timeonice.com, the stat Vic Ferrari calls ZoneShift, where a positive number means play is tending from the defensive to offensive zone with Player X on the ice, followed by Scoring Opportunities for and against as tracked by Dennis over at MC79hockey, and Errors as tabulated by David Staples at Cult of Hockey.


ZoneShift
---------
Smid ******** -5 (-2.1/60)
Staios ***** -29 (-5.1/60)
Strudwick ** -28 (-6.1/60)

Staios w. Strudwick -27 (-7.6/60)
---

Scoring opportunities
---------------------
Smid ******* +28/-34 = -6 (-2.55/60*)
Staios ***** +64/-87 = -23 (-5.35/60*)
Strudwick ** +49/-77 = -28 (-6.49/60*)

(per 60 rates adjusted for missing STL game)
---

Errors:
-------
Smid ******* 1 (0.43/60)
Strudwick ** 6 (1.31/60)
Staios ***** 8 (1.40/60)
---

One final point about Smid: there was a big discussion a while back about how his on-ice Sv% of .981 was unsustainable. Since then that number has actually risen to a presumably-even-more-unsustainable .987 (!), while his Sh% ON is also by far a team low at just 2.9%. He may be a low-event player, but surely he can't be THAT low-event. Only three goals scored by both teams in over seven periods of even strength time is the type of stat that cannot continue long term. That said, he's clearly far lower (negative) event than Strudwick, and MacT's seeming preference for the veteran is puzzling in the here and now as well as for the future.