Paging Mr. Hemsky … white courtesy telephone please

Ales? Ales? Are you there, Ales?

For the second year in a row the Oilers are engaging in a second half playoff run with their putative star player seemingly missing in action. Last year Hemsky scored some on the powerplay, but bled goals against at evens, posting a brutal -13 rating after the All-Star break. This year the +/- isn’t so bad, but the scoring has dried up including on the powerplay where production from Hemsky is essential to production from the unit.

It’s interesting to compare the production of Ales Hemsky, first line right winger and team leading scorer, with that of Zack Stortini, 4th/5th line right winger and 9-minute a game grinder. Entering this afternoon’s game at Minnesota, this is what the two have done over their last 15 games played:

Hemsky : 15 GP, 3-4-7, -2
Stortini:15 GP, 4-3-7, +2

Now I’ll readily admit this is cherry-picking to some extent, that 15-game run is by far the best production of Stortini’s career, although somehow not enough to prevent a wholly-undeserved five-game vacation in the press box. But the point is that Hemsky is being paid, and played, to produce, and he hasn’t been doing it. 15 games is a significant enough segment of the schedule that he should be far ahead of the likes of Zack Stortini.

Let’s dig a little deeper:

Even strength
Hemsky : 223:33, 3-1-4, 1.07 ESP/60
Stortini:133:06, 4-3-7, 3.16 ESP/60

Powerplay
Hemsky : 59:02, 0-2-2, 2.03 PPP/60
Stortini: 1:18, 0-0-0

Two points, both secondary assists, in 15 games for Mr. Power Play. One assist in 15 games at even strength for Mr. Playmaker. One assist on an empty netter.

Ales looks frustrated out there. Even the acquisition and insertion of his buddy and fellow Ales, Kotalik, on his line accomplished nothing. Is he hurt? Or just in another second-half funk?

Groundhog Day was six weeks ago, Ales. The time to wake up is Now.

Post-Lubo goal scoring: a new paradigm? :)

Of all the numbers that seep into my life, from recreational mathematics to classical astronomy to baseball and hockey statistics, one of my favourite diversions is the field of small number statistics. One can find all sorts of interesting and extreme examples and draw all sorts of bizarre conclusions just for the fun of it. The key is not only sample size, but choosing exactly where to constrain that sample.

Here's an example that is entirely current and factually correct. There are even some grains of meaning to be found therein.

The Oilers have had to change their game since the unfortunate loss of their slick puckmoving defencemen, first Lubomir Visnovsky followed all too quickly by Denis Grebeshkov. Suddenly a defence crew that provided four of the club's top eight scorers was a double amputee in the manner of the Black Knight. Just as suddenly, the onus fell much more squarely on the shoulders of the forwards to light the lamp.

The Oilers have played 7 games since Lubo went down, 6 of them on the road, and have posted an impressive 4-2-1 W-L-L record. The club has scored a creditable 20 goals in those games, even without counting a pair of ersatz shootout "goals". Here is the distribution of goal scorers over that span:

Stortini 3
Souray 3
Penner 3
Hemsky 2
Horcoff 2
Gagner 2
Cole 1
Pouliot 1
Cogliano 1
Brodziak 1
Reddox 1
Nilsson 0
Moreau 0
All D but SS 0

For the love of mike, there's Zack Stortini leading the Oilers in goal scoring. Who knew?

I care more about how the lines are faring as a group, not as much about who is finishing the job. The forward lines have been pretty stable over that period of games, even as the defence has been shuffled. Here's the goal scoring line by line:

1. Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky - 7 goals

2. Nilsson-Gagner-Cole - 3 goals

3. Moreau-Cogliano-Pouliot - 2 goals

4. Reddox-Brodziak-Stortini - 5 goals

So our so-called fourth line has equalled the offensive production of the second and third units combined over this two-week stretch. Moreover, the first of Penner's goals was scored when Dustin was demoted to the fourth line -- assisted by Zack Stortini, come to think of it -- suggesting that over this 4-2-1 stretch the fourth line has equalled the output of the First line, in a helluva lot less ice time.

The underlying numbers -- shots and Corsi data -- don't paint such a rosy picture of the grinders' performance, but shots don't tell the whole tale either. Last year much was made of the "unsustainable" shooting percentages that the Crosstiniaks maintained. Yet this year I look at the same data and there is Zack Stortini leading all non-Schremps with a team Sh% of 12.0% when he's on the ice, and leading all the non-SMacs in individual Sh% at an astonishing 28.6%. 4 goals in 14 shots, but still. As a unit those guys plainly don't waste a lot of shots, they try to bull it to the front of the net and when they succeed in getting it there a one-foot shot has a better than average chance of going in. Or so the small number statistics suggest. :)

To be continued?

A few discussion points on tonight's Wild soiree:

Can't help but wonder if Derek Boogaard might have Sheldon Souray in his sights. Last time out Sheldon decked Craig Weller with a very solid left -- too solid, according to some who noticed Souray was wearing a hard plastic wrist guard. He wears it legitimately to protect his bionic wrist, but it should be off limits as a weapon. Watched the incident a few times and never did draw a conclusion whether it was used as such. Weller is still out with concussion. Look at the shocked expressions of the Oilers on the bench surveying the aftermath of that beatdown.

Haven't heard of any stupid Bertuzzi-like comments emanating from the Wild, but I wouldn't be too surprised if the Boogey Man came calling. I don't doubt Souray might answer Boogaard's call, and he might have as good a chance against the monster as anybody; he's as tough a player as has worn Oiler silks in quite some time. I don't like the potential trade-off, or consequences, but there are times when the tough ones need to account for themselves, or be taken into account. I attended and remember well the "Bryan Marchment Game" where the former Oilers' hardrock defenceman, now a Shark, accepted the challenge of "Big Zhawrzh" Laraque after he took out Doug Weight's knee in a previous game. Marchment lost the fight (a little too quickly, I thought), but he gained the respect of the Oilers and even of this observer for answering the bell. Didn't hurt his teammates morale any, either. Cheap shot artist he was, but Matt Cooke he wasn't.
***

In a not-unrelated development, it sounds like Steve MacIntyre is in tonight, and Zack Stortini out. Neither has dropped the gloves since their return from injury, which is somewhat significant in that both injuries came during fights. Tough break for Zorg who was one of approximately 20 Oilers who struggled against Buffalo. In his first game back from a leg injury, he didn't exactly have the wheels going and showed a little rust by making a couple of rare bad decisions. And like the team as a whole, every mistake wound up in the net.
***

Craig MacTavish's proposed experiment with Tom Gilbert up front on the PP is a little different. It's not often one sees three full-fledged defencemen on the PP; I know Jacques Martin used to fool around with Zdeno Chara in the low slot from time to time, but I believe Alfie played the point so they were just kind of switching positions. Other teams have tried a similar tactic but not for long. Last team I remember who used three D on a regular basis, and about the only one who used the swing man in a skill role was the Winnipeg Jets in the early 90s. They had traded Dale Hawerchuk for Phil Housley, and with a surfeit of offensive blueliners (Fredrik Olausson, Teppo Numminen, Randy Carlyle, Moe Mantha) to man the points, Housley was regularly deployed up front, where he scored 12 and 11 ppg his first two seasons. A precocious offensive talent, Housley had played some centre early in his career in Buffalo (which also shows up in his powerplay goals) before maturing into a full-time blueliner. But for the Jets he went up front on the PP.

It worked in that the Jets had an above-average powerplay those two seasons, but it didn't in that their back-heavy talent distribution resulted in an unbalanced team with a losing record.
***

Peculiar comments from MacT in today's Edmonton Journal about Marc Pouliot:

"I don't like Pouliot at centre. Faceoffs are an issue, the added positional responsibility can be an issue. (Potulny) is an average skater, but he's got good hands and a real head for the game, from what I've seen."

It's hard not to read part of that as a thinly-veiled criticism of Pouliot's head for the game. But in response to the specific criticism, I would point out that Pouliot's faceoff percentage of 47.6 is less than great, it's fully 10 percentage points better than that of Andrew Cogliano (37.5). So Cogs must have a big edge in "positional responsibility". I do know Pouliot has a pretty good record as a low event player regardless of whether he's playing centre or wing, currently ranking fourth among Oiler forwards at 2.30 GA ON/60, while Cogliano is well down the charts at 2.73. As for Potulny, I guess we'll find out.

Two things I'm pretty sure about are that Coach MacTavish has a v-e-r-y good understanding of what a 3C's positional responsibility is; and that he's pretty ticked to not have a veteran to deploy in that important role.
***

Big game tonight against a divisional rival that is exactly tied in the standings. GOILERS!

The Zorg Element

This is Zorg Stortini, hired gun of the Edmonton Oilers. He's a funny looking fellow whose contribution is often misunderstood and frequently underappreciated.

Zorg bleeds Oiler blue, yet is often badmouthed by fans of his own team. Just the other day, Oilogosphere stalwart Andy Grabia made the following drive-by analysis:

I can't take any team with Zach Stortini on it seriously. Or any organization that considers him a Top 12 forward. I just can't.

A while back, the esteemed Lowetide made the following comments in his early season report card:

30%: Zack Stortini- Well, we knew he wasn't going to have a season like last year but I thought he'd be more than Wilfredo Tejada. I don't think it's his fault, really. Giving Stortini at-bats when he clearly doesn't give you offense is like playing Bob Natal at first base: he can do it, but does it help you? You'd have to write a 4,000 word essay on how being purely physical overwhelms putting up even a dribble of offense with the minutes Zack is getting.

Now it's not like I'm going to write a 4,000 word essay -- right??? -- but at the time I defended Zorg with these words:

I think "incomplete" would be a much fairer mark than 30 frickin percent for a guy who has only received 70 minutes TOI. Hard to deliver
offence from the pressbox or the bench. ... Zack's track record is that the more regularly he plays, the better he plays. Instead, MacT screwed around with the Pisani at centre experiment at the expense of young players including Brodziak, Pouliot, and Stortini.

Zorg's season continued in fits and spurts until he was inserted into the line-up on Dec. 13 against Vancouver, a team he has driven crazy his whole career. Since then he has played 9 games in a row, with a total ice time of 64:30, or slightly over 7 minutes per. All but 7 seconds of that was at even strength.

Zorg is an interesting player to track in that any line he's on is by definition the fourth line. Just as the Hemsky Line is the first regardless of who the other guys on it may be, the same may be said about the Stortini Line at the other end of the roster. Not that there's anything wrong with that; a healthy fourth line is critical to a team's success in my view.

Right now the canary in the coal mine is alive and well. Check out these numbers for those 9 games:

1G + 1A = 2P (1.86 P/60)

+3/-1 = +2

+2.79/-0.93 = +1.86/60

25 SoGF ON / 26 SoGA ON = -1 differential

16 hits

0 giveaways

1 takeaway

2 blocked shots

2-0 = 100% faceoffs

The usual caveat about small number statistics applies, but this looks like a typical 9-game stretch from last year's second half when even his many detractors had to admit Zorg was helping the club. The only large numbers in Zorg's stats apply to the physical side of the game: height, weight, hits, penalties, and fights. These are elements otherwise in very short supply on this team, that Zorg brings in spades.

For example, in those 9 games the Oilers landed a total of 128 hits. Stortini delivered fully 12.5% of those, in roughly 2.5% of the total individual ice time.

Let's look at that aspect of the game over the course of the season to date:

Hits/60 (20+ GP)

----------------

13.3 Stortini

6.8 Smid

6.4 Cole

6.2 Moreau

5.2 Strudwick

3.7 Staios

3.6 Pouliot

3.5 Penner

2.8 Brodziak

2.7 Cogliano

2.5 Nilsson

2.2 Souray
1.9 Grebsehkov

1.6 Gilbert

1.5 Visnovsky
1.2 Horcoff

0.9 Gagner

0.8 Hemsky

... meaning Zorg's hit rate is equal to the NEXT TWO highest regular Oilers. A few of those hits have been beauties, such as those on Shane O'Brien and Todd Fedoruk to name two.

Some of the small-number statistics are impressive by their very smallness. For example, giveaways. Zorg had none during that 9-game stretch; in fact he has had none to date in the entire season. Of the other 20-game Oilers, Strudwick has 7, Pouliot 8, everybody else at least 14. Zorg has Zero.

Then there's this one. A while back BCB made an insightful post in his blog Bringing Back the Glory about "aggressive" vs. "lazy" penalties. Accepting his definitions of what constitues each category (and there are some acknowledged gray areas), the Oilers as a team take about 2 lazy penalties for each aggressive one.

So far this season, Zorg leads the club with 87 PiM as befits his position description. In total he has taken 19 penalties, with the following breakdown: 19 aggressive penalties, 0 lazy penalties.

I would conclude here is a guy who understands what his job is. The vast majority of his penalties are coincidental of course, but the remainder are of the charging and roughing type, establishing a physical presence, standing up for teammates. Not a single obstruction foul for the entire season. It's kind of amazing when you think about it.

Heaven knows the Oilers, like all teams, need a physical presence. Indeed, Oilers have been branded a small, soft team. Zorg Stortini addresses a very major need on this club, and he does so while holding his own on the ice, by contributing a little bit and by giving away absolutely nothing. He can play in my Top 12 any day.

A milestone for a personal favourite

The featured photo at the centre of this montage shows Zack Stortini in the act of scoring his first NHL goal, against Roberto Luongo of tonight's opponent Vancouver Canucks (celebration at lower right). Tonight Stortini will achieve a second career milestone against this hated divisional rival when he plays his one hundredth NHL game.

That is one hundred more games than we Oiler fans had any right to expect when the Oilers drafted this guy deep into the third round of the 2003 Entry Draft. Yet today Zack Stortini and Alexandre Picard become the first two players of the 33 picked in that round to reach the 100-game plateau.

Stortini had some positive vibes when he was picked. Hockey's Future noted the following: "Captain of the Sudbury Wolves of the OHL for the past two seasons. Named two years in a row as the team's Academic Player of the Year... Pledged to lead Sudbury to the postseason in 2003-04 and delivered, then guaranteed a win in round one and scored the game winning OT goal to complete that objective too." Hmmm, smart kid, leadership skills (two year captains are rare in junior), and by example too.

He also had size (6'4, 220 lbs.) and youth on his side. He barely qualified for the age cut-off; of the 105 players from that Entry Draft to play at least 1 NHL game to date, Zack is the youngest. To put it into an Oiler perspective, he's four months younger than fellow 2003 draftees Marc Pouliot and J.-F. Jacques, eight months younger than Robert Nilsson, a year younger than Ryan Potulny, 16 months younger than Kyle Brodziak, more than two full years younger than Mathieu Roy.

He also had a skating stride that might have been the most awkward seen in these parts since Wayne van Dorp briefly cast anchor. Never one to shy away from hard work, Zack has undertaken powerskating instruction under the watchful eye of Liane Davis and has gradually improved, summer by summer, winter by winter. He's still an awkward, below average skater, but he is gradually gaining speed and agility and now wins his share of races to shoot-ins. If he arrives second, that's not always a bad thing either.

Stortini made his debut with the Oilers as a very raw rookie in 2006-07. The highlight was a great game against the hated Canucks . That Zack likes to get in the faces of the Canucks can be seen in the pic at upper right; he has a personal high 6 fights against various members of the Canucks.

Thanks in part to a late-season injury bug, Stortini finished that 2006-07 season with 29 NHL GP before joining the Hamilton Bulldogs in the post-season and becoming the only non-Hab property to contribute to that Calder Cup championship club (see pic on upper left).

Zack continued to overachieve in 2007-08. After shuttling between the fourth line, the pressbox, and Springfield in the first part of the season, another injury bug together with his usual inspired play saw Zack play all but one game in the sceond half of the season, leading the team during that span with an impressive +10 rating (+19/-9). After limited minutes in a difficult first half, he responded to a well-defined role, contributing 8-12 minutes a night of solid 5v5 grinding. His defensive contribution was extraordinary, as he trailed just his linemate Curtis Glencross for the best GA ON/60 rating. Adopting a dual role as the team's primary agitator and its enforcer, Zack finished 2nd on the team with 99 hits despite being 20th in total ice time. He also finished second behind just Ales Hemsky in drawing penalties per unit ice time. Further, he led the club by a wide margin with 201 PiM including 23 fights, many of which were against true heavyweights like Derek Boogaard, George Parros, David Koci, Colton Orr, Darcy Hordichuk, Eric Godard, Raitis Ivanans, and Andrew Peters (pictured at lower left). A willing but awkward dance partner, Stortini's game (and mouth) is probably better suited to the agitator's role, but he will stand in there for his teammmates and against Anybody. Anybody who takes liberties with Ales Hemsky, be they Martin Lapointe, Robyn Regehr, or Derek Boogaard, could expect a visit or two from Zack Stortini.

In 2008-09 Oilers have finally acquired a true heavyweight in 6'6, 265 lb. Steve MacIntyre to relieve Stortini of that part of his job description. Zack has had some early struggles with greatly reduced ice time which has seen him stapled to the bench or press box. He seems to need regular, if limited, ice to be his most effective. While the team's toughness is maximized with both big fellas in the line-up, that represents new challenges to MacT. For Stortini's line to be effective, he has to be the least skilled player on it. That's no knock on Zack, but he's got to look after his own job and count on his linemates to be able to do likewise. He and Brodziak/Pouliot are nowhere near good enough to carry an anchor around with them, leaving MacT few options but to staple 1,2, or all 3 guys to the bench. A 3-pack of Zack, SMac and Brodziak would pack some whack but lack at the back and attack jack. :)

But while MacIntyre is a true enforcer in the "nuclear deterrent" sense, Stortini is far more versatile; he provides physical presence in 5v5 play than guys like Hemsky and Nilsson can provide in a month of double shifts. The fights spring out of that physical style, but I'm more interested in hits and grinding the boards and getting in the goalie's face and distracting the other team and drawing penalties. That's hockey, all of it is hockey, and it's every bit as integral to a good team as tallying up scoring chances, however you may define them. To have a good safe player who does all those things for 8 or 10 minutes a night is a huge asset. Especially one who just turned 23 and has done nothing but improve since the day he was drafted.