WorkHorc

Break time is over, for the NHL and for me. Been a little quiet here on Oil Droppings the last couple of weeks, I went out of town for a few days and hit the doldrums on my return. I have been writing some, just not here. In particular, I've been helping out with Dennis's Scoring Chance project, on which I wrote a series of guest pieces over at MC79hockey. Lots of interesting stuff for Oiler fans in there; Dennis, with help from Vic and Scott, has compiled a ton of raw data on Our Heroes. My contribution was to parse by the familiar per-60 metric to provide another shade of context, and draw a few preliminary conclusions.

One of those conclusions was inescapable: Shawn Horcoff is an absolute horse. Horcoff is my favourite Oiler, but I don't write about him often because most (not all) in the part of the Oilogosphere I inhabit, appreciate him for the horse that he is. Still, the "new statistics" allow us to take the measure of a man in a much broader sense than was possible in the past. And the measure of Shawn Horcoff is that he is one hell of a hockey player.

My favourite not-that-new statistic is time on ice, something I clamoured for in vain throughout the 1980s. It was and remains a very good measure of a player's worth to his coach, to his team, and within the NHL, more reliable in its way than any production statistic or salary valuation. As a comparable it needs be applied with only the broadest brush, F v F, D v D, G v G. Accordingly all of the following is a discussion of forwards only.

Let's start with TOI for the top 6 Oiler forwards as at the break, expressed as a gross number and per game:

---------- T.O.I. - ---------- TOI/G

Horcoff ** 995:23 * Horcoff ** 21:38
Cole ***** 773:41 * Hemsky *** 18:43
Penner *** 726:41 * Cole ***** 16:49
Gagner *** 711:34 * Gagner *** 16:32
Moreau *** 708:51 * Penner *** 16:30
Cogliano * 706:53 * Moreau *** 15:45

It is a very high workload indeed: Horc currently ranks 9th among NHL forwards in TOI; 8th in TOI/G. That left-hand column is astonishing: Horc has played over 200 minutes more than any teammate, the largest such margin anywhere in the league. Neither Kovalchuk nor Iginla nor Koivu nor Ovechkin can boast such a spread. (Not that Shawn is one to boast.)

On a per-game basis, Hemsky enters the picture, his 10 lost games ameliorated. Ales plays nearly as much time at evens, almost half a minute more on the PP, but doesn't kill penalties at all. Whereas Horcoff eats up major minutes on all three units:

---------- EV TOI + ---------- PP TOI + ---------- SH TOI

Horcoff ** 656:02 * Horcoff ** 186:40 * Horcoff ** 152:41
Cole ***** 602:19 * Hemsky *** 160:23 * Brodziak * 125:03
Moreau *** 582:44 * Gagner *** 128:16 * Moreau *** 117:52
Gagner *** 566:24 * Penner *** 128:06 * Cole ****** 47:28
Cogliano * 557:50 * Cole ***** 123:54 * Cogliano ** 44:40
Penner *** 556:49 * Cogliano * 104:23 * Penner **** 41:46

Only one other forward in the league, Mikko Koivu, leads his team in ice time in all three manpower situations (although one of tonight's opponents, Buffalo's Derek Roy, comes close).

Questions have been raised as to whether Horcoff should be handling such a load on both special teams as well as the Power-vs-Power role as the first line centre, especially as he struggles with an aching back (from carrying the team?). Make no mistake, that load is exceptional:

Player --- SH/G + PP/G = ST/G
-----------------------------
Horcoff ** 3:19 + 4:03 = 7:22
Ovechkin * 1:23 + 5:39 = 7:02
Malkin *** 1:22 + 5:39 = 7:01
Morrow *** 1:55 + 4:57 = 6:52
M.Koivu*** 2:47 + 3:59 = 6:46
D.Roy **** 2:39 + 4:02 = 6:41
Stastny ** 2:22 + 4:18 = 6:40
Pominville 2:42 + 3:56 = 6:38
M.Richards 3:23 + 3:13 = 6:36
Alfredsson 2:09 + 4:25 = 6:34
J.Staal ** 3:37 + 2:51 = 6:28
Marleau ** 2:23 + 4:00 = 6:23
B.Richards 2:09 + 4:13 = 6:22
Semin **** 1:58 + 4:23 = 6:21
Crosby *** 0:59 + 5:21 = 6:20
St.Louis * 1:44 + 4:33 = 6:17
Drury **** 2:39 + 3:33 = 6:12
Modano *** 1:57 + 4:10 = 6:07
Nash ***** 2:13 + 3:50 = 6:07
Kovalev ** 1:45 + 4:17 = 6:02

I included the entire list of 20 guys in the league (I think I found them all) who log as many as 6 ST minutes a game, because it's quite a group of comparables. Who do their coaches rely on most? Guys one would expect for the most part, with a couple of surprises (to me) like Pominville, Semin, and Staal the Youngest. But there's no bigger surprise than to see Shawn Horcoff leading the pack by a substantial 0:20 per game. Wow.

Horcoff is the only veteran centre on a club with four pivots under the age of 25 who have yet to figure out which of them is playing wing, let alone fully step into a tough minutes role. Pouliot, Cogliano and Gagner, first rounders all, are certainly developing, but they are a long ways from catching the 99th-overall selection (in '98!) who at 30 continues to grow and mature his game.

Some have questioned whether Horcoff might be overworked on special teams, and should be saved for even strength situations, where there can be no question about his ability to handle the load. Of the dozen Oiler forwards who have suited up for 20+ GP, Horcoff ranks first in QualComp at +0.07, third (behind Penner and Hemsky) in GF ON/60 at 2.87 and third, barely behind Pouliot and Gagner, in GA/60 at 2.14. The former probably speaks to extra duties such as own-zone faceoffs that he garners while Hemsky and Penner stay on the bench; whereas the latter is a very promising sign that the young guys in the protected minutes are learning their lessons well. Make no mistake, they are learning from a master of the two-way art.

The net result of quality play and quantity ice time is that Horcoff leads the Oil at +8. He also has the highest shot differential on the team at +341/-296 = +45, and the biggest scoring chance differential at +195/-169 = +26. This despite the fact that he started in his own zone a staggering 246 times, fully 45% of the team's defensive zone faceoffs, compared to "just" 184 times in the offensive zone. Enough good things happen during his shifts that by the time Horc leaves the ice the puck is more likely than not to be in the offensive zone (+177/-156 = +21) Using Vic Ferrari's measure he calls ZoneShift -- and I should use Vic's measure since I'm using his stats -- that puts Horcoff at an astonishing +83. I haven't checked but surely that is one of the best such ratings in the loop.

It's not just PvP either, cuz Hemsky has started 14 more faceoffs in the offensive zone than the defensive. To recap, that's Horcoff +62, Hemsky -14.

That Horcoff has been doing double duty in the faceoff circle can be seen in this stat:

Player *Faceoffs FO%

Horcoff * 1008 * 52.2%
M.Richards 999 * 50.0
Pahlsson * 992 * 53.2
Crosby *** 989 * 49.6
BrindAmour 983 * 62.6
Carter *** 965 * 47.0
M.Koivu ** 960 * 54.3
E.Staal ** 901 * 44.8
D.Roy **** 889 * 50.3
Lecavalier 840 * 49.8

So here's another stat specific to his position: in faceoffs taken, Shawn Horcoff is the #1 C (pronounced: "Number One Centre") in the NHfreakingL. Horc's no Brind'Amour on the dot, but his percentage stacks up pretty darn well against the heavy-workload group. More importantly, his GA record suggests that even when he loses the draw he's hardly out of the play, and eventually the puck will start moving to the good end. The man makes a gigantic and still-understated contribution to his team.

Oilers 7, Blue Jackets 2 -- player gradings

I have offered to assist in David Staples' latest project over at Cult of Hockey, namely to grade the Oilers' players on a game-by-game basis. This is a collective effort, I'm just one member of a team of markers. Last night's Columbus game was my first contribution to the cause.

The scoring system is as follows: 10, perfect game; 9, extraordinary game; 8, great game; 7, good game; 6, above average game; 5, average game; 4, below average game; 3, bad game; 2, terrible game; 1, trade this player or send him to the minors.
***

Oilers 7, Columbus 2. A strange night in which Oilers were outshot 39-19 yet won in a laugher. Despite the offensive support Dwayne Roloson was the key performer frustrating the Jackets time and again. As they pressed they became vulnerable to the counter attack, and the Oilers made their chances count with some outstanding execution in the offensive zone. Nearly a perfect night on special teams, with the powerplay effectively going 3-for-3 (with one goal coming 6 seconds after the expiry of a penalty), and the PK unit killing a creditable 6 out of 7. Dustin Penner was an inspired presence on his return from the press box. A huge turnaround win for the Oil after three consecutive losses including two blowouts in regulation.
***

Shawn Horcoff – 8: A complete game from Oilers’ most complete player. 4 shots, 3 points, 2 blocked shots, 1 takeaway, a winning night in the faceoff circle. 23:21 TOI including major contributions to both special teams.

Robert Nilsson – 5: Decent game, not a major factor. Just missed the top corner with a wicked rising shot in the first period that an inch the other way would have made the highlight reels.

Andrew Cogliano – 7: Flying all night. A goal, an assist, +2. Had a couple penalties, one dreadful turnover and just 31% in the circle, but the good outweighed the bad by a lot.

Ethan Moreau – 6: The lone minus forward on the team, but contributed mightily to a good night for the PK, and a solid night defensively with 3 hits, 3 blocks, and a takeaway. Questionable decisions with the puck at times.

Steve Staios – 5: Am not liking Steve’s game much of late, but he came up with some big blocks and contributed to a shaky but mostly successful PK unit. Was on the ice for both Columbus goals and none for the Oilers.

Erik Cole – 5: Had some nice puck battles on the boards, had a secondary assist but really didn’t bring much offence to the table. Didn’t even attempt a shot. 0:00 on both special teams, just 13:18 ice time at even strength.

Dustin Penner – 8: Tempted to give a 9. An exceptional performance from the gentle giant in his 200th NHL game. Responded to his benching with his best game as an Oiler, scoring once and contributing directly to three other goals with his massive presence in front of the net. 3 shots, 3 hits, +2, and a thorn in Pascal Leclaire’s side all night long.

Jesse Boulerice – no grade: Scoresheet says he played all of 2:27 with a complete blank in all stats, but the only time I even noticed him was when he was late to the party on a post-whistle scrum.

Dwayne Roloson – 8: Outstanding performance from the veteran playing his 3rd game in 4 nights, facing 112 shots overall. 37 saves for the second night in a row, many of them top notch. Best penalty killer on the team.

Denis Grebeshkov – 6: Seen him good, seen him bad, seen him both at once. Made some real nice high skill plays getting the puck moving in the right direction. Lost a battle to Nash on the 4-2 goal and nearly got burned later in the same shift by Umberger but Roli saved his bacon.

Jason Strudwick – 5: Looks very much like a 7th defenceman. Just a little slow reacting to the puck at times. -1 on Huselius’s goal, but contributed almost 5:00 without a GA on the PK so gets a bare passing grade.

Sheldon Souray – 8: Displayed his booming shot with an unstoppable goal and a rocket off the bar. Beautiful pass to Cogliano for another goal. Was major contributor to both special teams, and finished the night +3 at evens. Was on the ice for 5 goals for and none against. Unnecessary penalty that led to Nash’s goal was his lone blemish.

Kyle Brodziak – 5: Tough night for the kid saddled with Boulerice. Only 8:09 ice time, half of it on the PK. Someone referred to him as a “defensive specialist” but he’s still very much a project in this role.

Lubomir Visnovsky – 7: Tidy night’s work, goal and an assist, +2. Some very nice work with the puck, good positional play, 3 blocked shots. Played with Grebeshkov in the latter part of the game as MacTavish put Gilbert with Souray at both even strength and the first unit PP. That experiment was a major success.

Tom Gilbert – 8: Probably played his best game of the season, a goal, a helper, +3, and 3 blocked shots. Looked composed with the puck when under pressure, a trademark of Tom’s A game, and broke the puck out of his end well.

Marc Pouliot – 7: Finally broke the ice with his first goal of the year which stood up as the game winner. Impressed me with his all-ice game, some real smart plays with the puck in his own end. Also made a "hero play" behind Roloson One of 5 Oilers with 3 blocked shots.

Ales Hemsky – 7: Earned his marks on the PP where he set up two goals, and a third just after the expiry of the Jackets’ last penalty. Was pretty ordinary at even strength otherwise. His turnover at the Columbus blueline late in the second let to Huselius goal that cut the margin to 3-1.

Liam Reddox – 6: Lots to like in this kid. Has good defensive awareness, and lots of try. One of 4 Oilers with 3 hits. Looked alright on the PK though’ was on the ice for the one PPGA.

Sam Gagner – 6: A little better showing for Sam after a very rough stretch. Finished with 2 assists, +2. Made a good play to lead the rush before Penner’s 5-2 goal that ended any doubt. No shots on goal.

Craig MacTavish – 8: The beleaguered coach made all the right calls on this night, bringing Penner into the lineup and inserting him back on the powerplay unit; switching up the top two defence pairings and finding some immediate chemistry; and especially with coming back with Roloson on a night where the armchair experts, yours truly included, thought it was a poor idea to ride the veteran. Roli proved us wrong, and MacT right, with a first star performance.