Oil Droppings

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2009-06-25T20:17:00.012-06:00

I promised myself I'd give this one full season and see where it went. From the Oilers Wannabes at Golden Bears game on September 17 to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals on June 12, Oil Droppings was a going concern. Now it's going, going, gone.

But that's good news. After serving my year's apprenticeship in the minors, I've been called up to The Bigs. I have accepted an offer from "the hardest working man in the Oilogosphere", Jonathan Willis, to join forces at his fine blog The Copper & Blue. At the same time, Derek Zona a.k.a. Coach pb9617 is closing the doors of his promising new blog, the Church of Kurri, to make it a threesome over at C & B.

Should be interesting, and fun. We three bring different, complementary strengths which should keep C & B both busy and varied. Jon's done a great job all on his own there, but we're confident the addition of a couple UFAs will strengthen the team's performance.

Oil Droppings will remain "up" but inactive for the foreseeable future. The archives will eventually be folded in with Jonathan's and Derek's over at C&B while the blogroll will remain intact for now. That blogroll has continued to swell throughout the season as more worthy sites have come on-line, so this is a small step to consolidate three of them into one site which we hope will (continue to) be a regular visit for many of you.

My thanks to all the readers and especially commenters who have added content and context to Oil Droppings over the past 9 months. I look forward to continued interaction with you at Copper & Blue, not to mention in the comments sections of your own and other blogs.

Father's Day presence

2009-06-21T19:47:00.009-06:00

I think I must have inherited that part of my Dad's genetic code that loved the St. Louis Cardinals. It was something we shared from my earliest awareness of the sporting world in the summer of 1962, 'til the day he died just after the 2007 season. For both of us it was a passion that stretched from Stan (The Man) Musial to Albert (El Hombre) Pujols.

I saw only the tail end of the wonderful career of Stan the Man; similarly Dad saw only the first portion of El Hombre's dazzling career. Dad often regaled me with tales of Musial's legendary hitting exploits, such as the season he hit .625 in Ebbetts Field against the arch-rival Brooklyn Dodgers; today I can only reciprocate by thinking of my Dad and sharing vicariously Phat Albert's modern hitting exploits and ever-growing legend.

Fitting that Pujols came through with yet another huge game this Father's Day, with a 2 homer, 4 hit, 6 RBI performance, leading the Redbirds to a convincing 12-5 victory in Kansas City. The highlight was a fourth inning grand slam that broke open a 4-4 game. It was El Hombre's 9th career grand slam, tying the all-time Cardinals' record held by, you guessed it, Stan Musial. Through the magic of the Internet, a photo of today's slam appears up top, and video can be seen here.

If only I could, I'd be picking up the phone tonight and sharing a gloat with Dad. I'd no doubt tell him that Albert now leads the major leagues in runs, RBIs, homers, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and of course OPS (by a spectacular 140 points). Dad would note that the Cards have extended their lead in the tight NL Central to 1½ games. And the man who got a masters degree in history would likely make some comparison across the eras, between dominant hitters past and present.

In researching this piece I came across this wonderful picture (and this photo essay) of Musial and Pujols, taken on Opening Day 2009. The Man is a frail 88, but still has a ready smile and, it would appear, the utmost respect of those who follow his path. Which is as it should be.

The old #6 and the current #5 have lots in common, both starting their careers in left field before finding a permanent home at first base in Busch Stadium. Yet they come from backgrounds as different as their eras. Musial is from Donora (Pennsylvania), Pujols from the Dominican Republic. Due to his skin colour, El Hombre wouldn't have been welcome in the major leagues when The Man started his career; how far we've come. And how lucky I was, having a dad who cheered equally and whole-heartedly for Bob Gibson, Lou Brock, Ozzie Smith, and Albert Pujols as he did Stan Musial, Red Schoendienst and Enos Slaughter. Or who cried equally for Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy. Not everyone was so enlightened in the days of my youth, nor even today.

I was incredibly fortunate to have such a dad, and especially to have him right into my 50s. Today I remember him with great warmth, and miss him with all my heart.

“Whoever wins, Wins”

2009-06-12T12:58:00.026-06:00

I was 8 years old that spring of 1964 when I coined that phrase. It was my second Stanley Cup playoffs, and a memorable one. After the Leafs had rolled to the Cup in just 10 games in ’63 -- have I mentioned I'm old? I can recall the Leafs actually winning -- the next year things were a lot tighter. All three series (TOR-MTL, DET-CHI and then TOR-DET) were rematches, all three had the same result, but this time all three went 7 games. After the Leafs and Habs had split the first six games, my emerging mathematical mind realized that whoever won the next game, won the series. My uncharacteristically concise observation became synonymous with “Game 7” in our household for many years.

It’s particularly true when the Game 7 in question is in the Stanley Cup Finals. One for all the marbles. It’s an exciting time to be a hockey fan; even if you don’t care about the two teams involved, you care about that silver mug and you want to see whose history will be engraved on it.

This is my 46th Stanley Cup final series (an official majority of the 91 that have been played since the NHL was formed in 1917, and yes, I do feel old, thanks for asking). It is just the tenth in my time to reach Game 7. They might seem commonplace to newer, younger fans of Gary Bettman’s House of Parity, but there has been an odd distribution over the years:

1960s - 2
1970s - 1
1980s - 1
1990s - 1
2000s – 5

It’s a rare enough thing, which was especially true during dynastic times as the true powerhouses tend to end things in 6 or less. Sweeps were grossly more common than seven-gamers. The five-in-a-row Habs lost just 5 Finals games over those 5 years with only one series making it to Game 6. The four-in-a-row Habs of the late 70s lost just 3 games, and the four-in-a-row Islanders that directly followed also lost just 3 games, with each team playing (and winning) a single Game 6. The Oilers of 1983-90 got swept in their first series, then won 5 Cups with only a 7-game classic with the Flyers in 1987 requiring more than 5 games to mop up. Those Oilers lost just 3 games total in their other 4 Cup triumphs. Similarly, today’s long-standing dynasty in the Motor City got swept in a first visit to the Finals back in ’95, but have quickly disposed of subsequent opponents, losing just 3 games over their 4 successful Cup Finals. Until this year ... and tonight.

Rarer still is a 7th game overtime, which has occurred only twice, 1950 and 1954, with the Red Wings prevailing both times. The unlikely heroes were Pete Babando and Tony Leswick, both of whom are famous for no other reason. The pestiferous Leswick’s fluke goal off the glove of the great Doug Harvey could only be duplicated if Matt Cooke bounced one in off of Nick Lidstrom in OT tonight. Ugh. That one had to be tough for Habs fans to swallow ... sorry I missed it!

But since I tuned in a decade later, I watch the Stanley Cup Finals intently, every year, whether my team is in or out. In this era of many Games 7, I usually have a mild rooting interest but (2006 aside) don’t really care who wins, but am keen to see how things turn out. The Game is the thing, and by now I’ve watched well over 200 SCF games, 15 of them in person. The funny thing is how after all these years the memories of those games, especially Games 7, remain sharp. The garburetor that passes for my brain retains a torrent of game scores, goal scorers, goal times, situations, stats, factoids, mental replays ... This walk down memory lane doesn’t require hockey-reference.com – but if you find an error, please let me know. :D

1964: Detroit 0 @ Toronto 4

The first Game 7 in 9 years provided a somewhat anticlimactic end to a great series which featured 6 close games, including 2 overtimes and 2 others decided in the last minute of regulation. The coup de grace was delivered by Bob Baun, whose shock overtime goal in Game 6 had silenced an Olympia crowd expecting the Cup. That Baun was playing on a broken leg at the time is now the stuff of legend. Baun, broken leg and all, went on to play Game 7; when asked if he would get an Xray, he replied “no, if it's bad news I don't want to hear it; I have a game to play”. (Bob Baun was Lee Fogolin, Craig Muni, and Jason Smith all rolled into one.) His leg held up, and so did the Leaf defence in smothering the Wings. Andy Bathgate, acquired from the Rangers in a blockbuster trade earlier that season, scored on an early breakaway and Johnny Bower made it stand up against Gordie Howe and Co. The Leafs scored three in the third to finally break it open.

1965: Chicago 0 @ Montreal 4

This was a homer series and an extreme one at that. Montreal outscored Chicago 15-2 in the Forum, with the Hawks failing to score again after a 3-2 loss in Game 1. In Chicago Stadium it was the Habs with popgun offence, scoring just 3 goals to Chicago’s 10. So when Jean Beliveau scored something like 14 seconds into Game 7, it was over early. The Habs built their early advantage to 4-0 by the end of the first and cruised home from there. The only boring Game 7 I’ve ever seen. Gump Worsley got the shutout, and Beliveau was awarded the first Conn Smythe Trophy.

1971: Montreal 3 @ Chicago 2

The homer series that wasn’t. Chicago was the higher seed but blinked in the final game, blowing a 2-0 lead in the process. The turning point came in the second period when Bobby Hull hit the crossbar and soon after Jacques Lemaire beat Tony Esposito on an 80-foot slapper that got the Habs back in the game while draining the confidence right out of the Hawks and their fans. From that moment the outcome seemed inevitable. Henri Richard scored the tying and winning goals, and Ken Dryden made them stand up with some remarkable netminding. The pre-rookie Dryden won the Smythe, the Pocket Rocket got his revenge for being benched earlier in the series, and winning coach Al MacNeil got demoted to the AHL. The only thing the Canadiens did better than infighting, was winning.

1987: Philadelphia 1 @ Edmonton 3
The first SCFG7 in sixteen long years, and my personal favourite, because I got to attend this game live. The ultimate experience for a hockey fan, knowing that the Stanley Cup is not only in the building but is certain to be given out. Whoever wins, Wins. I attended all four home games of that series, and it was the best live hockey I’ve ever seen. Philly had a great, gritty club that pushed the most talented of all Oiler squads right to the wall. In the ultimate game Flyers scored on an early 5-on-3, but the Oil tied it on a dazzling three-way passing play from Glenn Anderson to Kent Nilsson to Mark Messier before Jari Kurri put the Oil ahead to stay late in the second on a pass from Wayne Gretzky. After a series of goalposts, near misses, and great stops by Ron Hextall, Anderson finally put it away late in the third. Oilers outshot Philly 43-20 and were full value for the win. The rookie Hextall was a standout in defeat, receiving first star honours in Game 7 as well as the Smythe. Gretzky received the Cup from John Ziegler and immediately passed it to Steve Smith in an unforgettably classy gesture.

1994 Vancouver 2 @ New York Rangers 3
The Rangers were known as Edmonton East, and it stood them in good stead when the President’s Trophy winners blew two chances to win the Cup in Games 5 and 6, just as had happened to the Oil in ’87. The Rangers still had home ice for Game 7 and weren’t about to let it get away on them. Messier, Anderson, Kevin Lowe, Craig MacTavish, and Esa Tikkanen were teammates in both games; Jeff Beukeboom and Adam Graves had won Cups for Edmonton after ’87, and were key figures on those ’94 Rangers. Messier scored the Cup-winning goal, and Mike Richter and his posts made it stand up against a hard-battling Canucks squad. Brian Leetch scored the critical opening goal and ultimately received the Conn Smythe.

2001 New Jersey 1 @ Colorado 3
For the third year in a row the Finals featured a battle of superstar goalies, but after the previous two were decided in long overtimes in Game 6, this one went the limit. Patrick Roy was the story, shutting down the Devils’ league-leading offence (it’s true! and it wasn’t close), allowing just 11 goals in the 7 games including just 2 in the 4 Colorado victories. The Devils had a chance to clinch at home in Game 6 but laid a 4-0 egg at the Swamp. Back in the Mile High City, the Avalanche jumped out to a 3-0 lead on 2 goals and a helper from Alex Tanguay, then rode Roy and fierce checking to the finish line. Roy was a clear choice for his third Conn Smythe, while an aging Ray Bourque was both inspiration and a major contributor.

2003 Anaheim 0 @ New Jersey 3
Another battle between hot goalies, as Brodeur and the Devils returned for their third SCF in four years to face J.-S. Giguere and the upstart Ducks. This was a homer series similar to 1965, in which neither team could score in the other’s building. The Ducks outscored the Devils 9-4 on the Pond, including 2-0 in overtime, but the Devils dominated at the Swamp by a 15-3 margin, including three 3-0 shutouts. Mike Rupp was the unlikeliest of heroes, subbing in for an injured Joe Nieuwendyk, contributing the Cup-winning goal and setting up both insurance markers. Strong goaltending and defence did the rest. Smythe voters looked past Brodeur’s 7 shutouts and clearly superior performance in the SCF to award Giguere the Smythe, based on his utterly brilliant work in the Western Conference playdowns.

2004 Calgary 1 @ Tampa Bay 2
The upstart Flames had a golden opportunity to wrap this one up at home, but fell 3-2 to ex-Flame Marty St.Louis’ goal in double overtime. Back in Tampa the teams played a very tight game which erupted into electrifying end-to-end action after Calgary cut the lead to 2-1 in the late stages. Lightning rode a pair of goals from Ruslan Fedotenko, fierce checking, and outstanding goaltending from Nikolai Khabibulin to seal the win. Brad Richards was awarded the Conn Smythe for a spectacular playoff run which included 7 game winners among his 12 goals.

2006 Edmonton 1 @ Carolina 3
The Oilers were in the same boat as the ’87 Flyers and ’94 Canucks, coming back from a 3-1 series deficit to force a one-game showdown, unfortunately in the other guys’ rink. The Hurricanes bounced back from a 4-0 drubbing in Game 6 to score the all-important first goal on the game’s first sequence. Frank Kaberle extended the lead with the eventual Cup winning goal on a deflection off Jason Smith's butt before Fernando Pisani made it close early in the third, but the tying goal was not to be. An empty netter by Justin Williams provided the final margin in what was essentially a one-goal game. Cam Ward outdueled a game but rusty Jussi Markkanen over the 7 games, becoming the fourth rookie goalie to win the Smythe after Dryden, Roy and Hextall. The Carolina fans reportedly never sat down for the entire game.

2009 Pittsburgh ? @ Detroit ??
Well, who knows. If past experience means anything it will be a low-scoring affair favouring the home team. In the 9 SCFG7’s over the past half century, the hosts (and, by definition, the pre-series favourites) have outscored the visitors by an aggregate of 27-9, or exactly 3-1. Oiler fans have been on both sides of that exact scoreline. 8 of the 9 times the home team carried the day, 8 times the hosts scored first, 7 times the visitors were held to 0 or 1 goal. It’s a daunting task the Penguins face. Moreover, the series is following the pattern of those previous “homer” series, where each team has had trouble producing on the road. The Pens have handled the Wings 10-5 in the Igloo, but have been blitzed 11-2 in the Joe. 2 goals in 3 games, all too reminiscent of Bobby Hull, Stan Mikita and the high-powered Hawks wimpy production of 2 goals in 4 games at the Forum in ’65, or the Ducks meagre 3 at the Swamp in ’03. Malkin, Crosby, and the high-powered Pens aren’t only battling Osgood, Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk and the boys, they’re fighting history.

Ah, history. Let’s go back just a little further. Like 2009, the 1955 Stanley Cup Finals featured a rare rematch of the previous year’s combatants, Montreal and Detroit, with the defending champion Wings again holding the all-important home ice advantage. Gordie Howe and Ted Lindsay, who dropped the ceremonial first pucks before this year's Game 1 in a memorable gathering of hockey greats, were formidable forces leading a powerhouse Red Wings squad the last time a Game 7 was played in the Motor City, 54 long years ago. It was a homer series all the way, with the rising powerhouse Habs scoring 15 goals in 3 games at the Forum, but just 5 in 4 games at the Olympia. (OK, I admit I had to look that one up. Don’t remember it well, having been a foetus at the time ... and my Mum was the only non-hockey fan in the whole famdamily, so I couldn’t even listen in.) Anyway, the Wings successfully defended their title with a convincing two-way effort in the showdown game, with Mister Hockey himself contributing the Stanley Cup-winning goal. The final score?

Montreal 1 @ Detroit 3

Hmmm. I’m not one for predictions, fearless or otherwise, but this is as good as I’ve got:

Pittsburgh 1 @ Detroit 3

The Old Boys Club is Dead. Long Live the Program of Excellence!

2009-05-27T15:19:00.032-06:00

Steve Tambellini has returned to his roots, which seem to be as deeply entangled in Hockey Canada as in Vancouver. Yesterday's double-hiring of Pat Quinn and Tom Renney provides the Oilers with a fabulous wealth of coaching experience at both the NHL level and across the international spectrum.

Ever the optimist, I would have found a reason to support, at least on a 60/40 basis, the hiring of either Quinn or Renney to the job. The creativity and flexibility shown by all sides to add both, has my 120% support. Coaching will not be a weakness for the Edmonton Oilers.

Pat Quinn may never have won a Stanley Cup, but in the current decade he has captured Gold Medals at the Olympic Games, the World Cup of Hockey, the Spengler Cup, the World Under-18 Championships and the World Junior Championships, a collection of goldware that almost certainly will never be duplicated.

Particularly encouraging is Quinn's recent success connecting with youngsters, including Oilers prospect Jordan Eberle who has already won two championships under Quinn's guidance. Not sure how those experiences will colour the Irishman's known preference for veterans, established in other times under other circumstances, primarily in big-budget markets in the pre-cap era, and mostly with Quinn acting as his own GM. That whole landscape has changed. Quinn -- who has posted an above-.500 record in 13 of his 14 complete seasons and made the playoffs in all but two of those seasons, winning 17 series -- wouldn't have survived this long if he wasn't adaptable.

I very much like the idea of a strong associate coach, especially given the established weaknesses of the new head man on the technical side of the game. Such an arrangement worked fine with Glen Sather and John Muckler. Renney has strong credentials as a head man -- post lockout his Rangers won 42+ games and made the playoffs every year, while he compiled an less-impressive-than-it-looks-but-still-pretty-darn-good 159-106-42 mark with what always seemed to me middling talent. He has experienced the constraints of the cap era including a few millstone contracts, and has consistently delivered competitive teams.

Critical to all this is what appears at this distance to be a complete absence of ego on Renney's part. After two years as a head coach in Kamloops, where he posted the best career Pts% (.714) in WHL history, Renney became head coach for the Canadian national men's team, a group he guided within a Peter Forsberg/Tommy Salo highlight reel of the gold medal in Lillehamer 1994. A couple of months later, Renney agreed to serve as assistant coach to George Kingston at the World Championships, and the pair successfully oversaw Canada's first gold medal in 33 years. A lesser man might have seen it as a demotion, a slap in the face even, but Tom Renney put that aside, answered the call, and delivered the goods.

Renney has continued to serve his country in a variety of roles at no fewer than 10 (ten) World Championships, compiling 3 gold, 3 silver and 2 bronze. He also won silver at the 1999 World Juniors, losing the gold medal game in overtime. On the senior level he has appeared to transition seamlessly from head man (1995, 1996, 2000) to assistant, and has in fact achieved his greatest team successes (the golds) in the latter role. With a track record like this I have no problem envisioning Renney stepping up to -- but not overstepping -- a strong associate coach role.

Certainly between them Quinn and Renney have won everything worth winning on the international level. Quinn won the Memorial Cup as a player, Renney as a coach. Both are proven winners, yet share the same gaping hole on the resume, the Stanley Cup. If that fact -- more an historical oversight than a blemish -- serves to drive them through the gruelling days and nights of the long seasons ahead, so much the better.

The whole thing hinges on teamwork among the triumvirate that unquestionably now runs the Oilers. As Renney must support, advise and ultimately defer to Quinn, so must the Irishman himself defer to Steve Tambellini. It's his former protégé's job to have the overarching vision, and the coaches' to implement it. That said, I suspect Tambellini's and Quinn's Idealized Roster Manuals already share many of the same pages.

Steve Tambellini has won the Stanley Cup as a player (see picture), but his roots are also firmly established in the international game. He represented Canada on the ice at the World Juniors, World Seniors, and Olympic Games, and has since served Hockey Canada at the management level for those same competitions. As a player he was a participant (one bronze); as a manager, a winner. As Quinn's best success occurred when he was head coach with strong assistants (just say no to Ricky Ley), and Renney's occurred when he was an assistant on a strong staff, Steve Tambellini has had his best success as a manager with a strong coaching staff. Lo and behold, that is the position that each now occupies with the Oilers.

Speaking of roots, some of them can get pretty tangled. Check out this Hockey Canada news release from March 2005:

CALGARY –Tom Renney, Head Coach and Vice President of Player Development of the New York Rangers, and Craig MacTavish, Head Coach of the Edmonton Oilers, have been named Team Canada’s assistant coaches for the 2005 IIHF Men’s World Hockey Championship, Team Canada’s General Manager Steve Tambellini announced on Thursday.

***

It's hard to put Kevin Lowe's fingerprints on the departures of Craig MacTavish and Charlie Huddy, in fact so little has been seen of K-Lowe that it seems safe to conclude that he too is now at arm's length and the Old Boys Club is officially histoire. All that remains of the old guard is Kelly Buchberger, who spent more time as MacT's winger than he did his assistant coach. As I (ever the optimist) wrote in defence of Bucky yesterday over at Lowetide's place:

As for Buchberger, I understand the frustration but as was the case when he was a young player, patience is key. When he broke in he was like Zack Stortini was two years ago, all warts and rough edges. The object of no little derision especially at first, Bucky worked harder than anybody, soaked up information like a sponge, and drove the twin engines of heart and desire to capacity on a daily basis. He was, and presumably remains, the ultimate team player. As a coach he perhaps achieved better results in Springfield than it seemed at the time, and who knows what he did or didn't accomplish last year. He's clearly the #3 man on the new totem pole, which is fine by me. If he had somehow been given the head job, that wouldn't have been fine at all, but the current situation calls for a little mortar between the bricks which is a role Kelly understands well. It's a hell of a learning opportunity for a young coach to put it mildly. I wish him well.

Finally, I also wish nothing but the best to outgoing coaches Charlie Huddy and Billy Moores as well as Craig MacTavish. While MacT's time had come, I'm less sure about Huddy and Moores who were caught in the crossfire of change. Both have been fixtures on the Edmonton hockey scene for three decades, with Huddy winning 5 Stanley Cups as a player for the Oilers, Moores 5 national titles as a head and assistant coach with the Golden Bears. Both came within a hair (pardon the pun) of adding a Stanley Cup as a coach in 2006. That near miss notwithstanding, both men are winners, and both men are class acts. Like MacT, they will be both missed and remembered fondly. For what it's worth, one Edmonton-area hockey fan of long standing says Thank You.

Myths of the Northwest

2009-05-17T20:54:00.002-06:00

A popular myth maintains it's difficult for a dominant team to emerge in the Northwest Division cuz it's such a tough group top-to-bottom. There's no way to fatten up on the dregs the way Detroit has done for years in the weak Central, or San Jose did this year in the suddenly-soft Pacific. Every team in the poor old Northwest faces a "tough schedule".

But in 2008-09, not so much. Here are the combined records of the NHL's six divisions:

Division .... GP * W - L - OT * Pts * Pts%
------------------------------------------
Central .... 410 * 219-141-50 * 488 * .595
Northeast .. 410 * 205-151-54 * 464 * .566
Atlantic ... 410 * 209-159-42 * 460 * .561
Pacific .... 410 * 201-162-47 * 449 * .548
Northwest .. 410 * 201-170-39 * 441 * .538
Southeast .. 410 * 195-165-50 * 440 * .537

In recent years this method has been complicated by the infernal Bettman Point, whose effect can be clearly seen above in that the worst division in hockey collected 53.7% of the available points. The Pts% of the league as a whole is a fluctuating value which seems to have found its level at ~.557 in each of the last three seasons, as about 23% of games reach overtime and generate the "free lunch" point.

The former laughing-stock Central is now the league's best division: first in Wins, Points, GF, GA, and by extension Win%, Pts%, goal differential.

Meanwhile the Northwest fares poorly by almost any standard: 5th in points (1 measly point ahead of the perennially poor SouthLeast), tied for 4th in Wins, 4th in goal differential, 6th and last in GF. Vancouver had the lowest points total of any division champion.

The local picture hardly improves for the post season:

Division .. Playoff Teams .. Series Wins
----------------------------------------
Central ........ 4 .............. 4++
Southeast ...... 2 .............. 3+
Atlantic ....... 4 .............. 2+
Northeast ...... 2 .............. 1
Pacific ........ 2 .............. 1
Northwest ...... 2 .............. 1

That's just through two rounds of course, but three divisions including the Northwest will be doing no further damage in 2009.

The Central continues to dominate in the post-season, having produced both conference finalists and a guaranteed pennant winner. In the process the Central's second-best club, Chicago Blackhawks, handily dispatched both NW representatives.

Given that Southeast teams have won 3 series with Carolina still hanging around, it seems that division has surpassed the Northwest for overall performance in 2008-09. The inescapable conclusion is that the local group has been the worst division in the NHL this season.

Live blog: Canada v. Russia

2009-05-10T08:39:00.020-06:00

Pregame -- Canada 0, Russia 0

I love international hockey.

Maybe one has to be a certain age to care as much as I do, but I'll make no apologies for that. I've followed the game at the national level since Father David Bauer's valiant squad of amateurs lost a 3-2 heartbreaker to the Soviets in the final game of the Innsbruck Olympics, then got cheated of their bronze medals by a crooked judging decision.

I've watched (mostly on TV, very occasionally live) pretty much every significant international game available to me since then: World Seniors, World Juniors, NHL tours, Canada/World Cups, Olympics. Most but hardly all of these involved Canadian teams; memorable games that didn't include the "Miracle on Ice" in Lake Placid and especially the epic 1969 battle between Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union in Stockholm in the first meeting of the Iron Curtain rivals after the Prague Spring. I still rank that 3-2 Czechoslovak victory over a Soviet team at the peak of its powers on the very short list of the greatest hockey games I've ever seen.

I suffered through the "shamateur" debates that resulted in Canada's withdrawal from the 1970 Worlds that were to be hosted in Winnipeg and the 7-year hiatus that followed which included two Olympiads. I watched, intently and intensely, every game of the '72 Summit Series, and still haven't forgiven Mr. Sprisak, my Physics 30 teacher, for scheduling an exam during the first period of the decisive Game 8.

Canada finally returned to the world stage in the 1976-77 season, hosting the first Canada Cup before sending a team that included a number of out-of-playoff NHL players to the Worlds that spring. The team was competitive but never victorious, capturing 3 silvers and 4 bronzes from '77 to '93, before finally breaking through in a Gold Medal Game with a memorable shootout win against the Finns in 1994. That was the first of 5 world titles over the last 15 years.

Bill Ranford backstopped that '94 squad. Today, another Edmonton Oiler, Dwayne Roloson (pictured), gets the opportunity for some gold medal heroics. Roli, the only player on either team who was alive during the '72 Summit Series, gets the start for Canada in what is arguably the biggest game of his career. His fellow Oiler Shawn Horcoff, meanwhile, plays a sudden death game for all the marbles for the 4th time in 7 years.

Despite an impressive 24 gold medals apiece, the historic rivals have met just twice in the final since the format was changed from round robin to single elimination games. The Soviet Union won the first such encounter in 1989, while Russia stole the gold in overtime last year on Canadian ice.

It's payback time.

Backgrounder: Program of Excellence

Russia returns 14 players from last year's Gold Medal showdown, Canada just 6 (Hamhuis, Spezza, Heatley, Doan, Roy, St.Louis). This might be seen as a disadvantage, however I'm not worried due to the wealth of international experience representing the red-and-white today:

30.Dwayne Roloson -- 2nd WC (1 gold + ?)
50.Chris Mason -- 3rd WC (twice as reserve)
37.Josh Harding (res.) -- 1st WC, 1 WJC

2. Dan Hamhuis -- 4th WC (1 gold), 2 WJC
3. Drew Doughty -- 1st WC, 1 WJC (1 gold)
4. Chris Phillips -- 3rd WC, 2 WJC (2 gold)
5. Luke Schenn -- 1st WC, 1 WJC (1 gold)
6. Shea Weber -- 2nd WC (1 gold), 1 WJC (1 gold)
7. Ian White (inj.) -- 1st WC, 1 WJC
29.Joel Kwiatkowski -- 1st WC
44.Marc-Edouard Vlasic -- 1st WC
55.Braydon Coburn -- 1st WC, 2 WJC (1 gold)

8. Scottie Upshall -- 1st WC, 2 WJC
9. Derek Roy --2nd WC, 1 WJC
10.Shawn Horcoff -- 3rd WC (2 gold)
12.Mike Fisher -- 2nd WC
15.Dany Heatley -- 6th WC (2 gold), 1 World Cup (1 gold), 1 Olympics, 2 WJC
16.Travis Zajac -- 1st WC
17.Steve Stamkos -- 1st WC, 1 WJC (1 gold)
18.Matthew Lombardi -- 2nd WC (1 gold)
19.Shane Doan -- 6th WC (2 gold), 1 World Cup (1 gold), 1 Olympics
20.Colby Armstrong -- 2nd WC (1 gold)
26.Marty St.Louis -- 2nd WC, 1 World Cup (1 gold), 1 Olympics
28.James Neal (inj.) -- 1st WC, 1 WJC (1 gold)
91.Jason Spezza -- 2nd WC, 3 WJC

Of 19 players apt to the see the ice today (shown in bold, reserves in italics), 17 have previous international experience at 46 major tournaments, 14 have won gold (20 gold medals total) including 9 at the senior level (14 gold medals total). I didn't even track previous exposure at events such as the U-17 and U-18 tourneys. Suffice to say the Program of Excellence is actually delivering on its blueprinted promise.

First intermission -- Canada 1, Russia 1

A frenetic period with a running time of just 33 minutes. Russians appear to be getting the better of it to my eye, although Roloson was the great equalizer with a number of fine stops, including two on a game-opening powerplay. Canada responded with a nice goal on a great backhand pass from Doan to Spezza, and things stabilized for awhile. However, I thought Canada was guilty of losing its composure at times, especially in the second half of the period. A few too many "hero plays" for my liking, guys running around out of position or leaving their feet to (try to) make defensive plays. If the Russians exhibit a little patience with the puck they will find plenty of holes to exploit. The speed of the game was exceptional, though I would like to see a little more old-fashioned physical play from the red-and-white. More guys need to follow the example of Dan Hamhuis who stopped a couple of Russian attacks with textbook body checks.

Second intermission -- Canada 1, Russia 2

A better period for Canada, but a worse result. Canada dominated play territorially, outshooting the Russians 16-5, but failed to capitalize. Couldn't beat Bryzgalov, couldn't get a bounce, and at times gripped the sticks a little too tight and whiffed on a good opportunity. Russian defenders also made a couple of emergency defensive plays by keeping their heads and their feet. Unfortunately the same can't be said for Chris Phillips on the goal, an odd-man rush against the flow of play. Mike Fisher hustled back to eliminate the passing option but Phillips overplayed Radulov, going down and sliding out of the play as the Peripatetic Predator stepped around him and hammered a perfect finishing nail past Roli. Exactly the kind of play I was concerned about after the first. I expect Canada to keep pressing in the third, but they need to keep their heads; the Russians are deadly on the counter attack.

Postgame -- Canada 1, Russia 2

What a heartbreaker. Canada continued to carry, at times dominate, the play, but never could find a way to beat Bryzgalov a second time. Shots on net were 27-9 Canada over the final 40 minutes, with many more chances thwarted by a stick check, a bad bounce, a blocked shot, a fumbled pass. All 18 Canadian skaters generated at least 1 shot over the course of the game as the red-and-white really pushed the play. The Russians played Hang On Harvey hockey in the third especially, but it worked. I even saw Ilya Kovalchuk playing dump-and-not-even-chase a couple times.

Another classic moment in the bizarre world of European television coverage occurred in the dying seconds, when after two long delays to put a second back on the clock, they finally did get around to dropping the puck for the crucial faceoff with the camera focussed on Russia`s back-up goalie looking on from the bench.

Kovalchuk played 30:33, over 12 minutes more than any teammate. The defence-by-committee played a solid game, with all 8 guys playing between 12:31 and 16:30, not a typical recipe for success. Canada relied heavily on the Nashville pair of Shea Weber (31:58) and Dan Hamhuis (28:39) who did a solid job mostly matched against Kovalchuk. Up front Derek Roy led the way with 22:31, including a head-scratching 10:40 in the third after he had banged up his wrist crashing the net late in the second.

For the first time, Canada`s tournament-leading powerplay didn`t get a sniff, getting only 2 opportunities as the refs decided to put their whistles away after enforcing Kitchen Sink rules for most of the tourney. The battle on special teams -- and ultimately the game -- was lost when the Russians converted on a puck-over-glass penalty in the first. The cheapest of all penalties has cost Canada a goal in each of the last two gold medal games ... both one-goal losses to the Russians. That`s pretty harsh medicine for what is generally an innocent play. Proving yet again that hockey, like life, isn`t always fair.

Live blog: Canada v. Sweden

2009-05-08T08:44:00.042-06:00

Semi-final day at the World Championships, and what's not to like? Russia-USA on now, followed by Canada-Sweden (noon MDT on TSN, not rebroadcast on tape delay until 1:30 a.m. -- believe it or not TSN is showing a rebroadcast of something called the Diamond Hill Plywood 200 during late prime time, an event which will have already just been shown on TSN2 for all those NASCAR buffs in their audience. Meanwhile people with day jobs will be left in the lurch for the IIHF World Championship semi-final. Sheesh.)

I'll be watching both games live, and doing updates on the Canada game here during the intermissions, with briefer entries in the comments section during the action. Do drop in and join me there.

Quarterfinal review -- Canada 4, Latvia 2

TSN just showed a weird stat that the four quarterfinals collectively produced 0 goals in the first period and 17 in the second. Say what? I watched much of the Canada-Latvia contest on tape delay, and while it was far from Canada's best game they got the job done against a Latvian group that hung in admirably. The 48-23 margin in shots -- including 22-4 in the decisive seond period -- suggests Canada was fully deserving of their 4-2 edge on the scoreboard. The Latvians twice cut a two-goal deficit in half, and had golden opportunities to do so again late in the third when Canada ran into penalty problems for the second straight game. Of particular interest was a rare 6-on-3 advantage the Latvians enjoyed with about 4 minutes left, but Chris Mason and the Canadian penalty-killers held the fort. Major contributors were Shea Weber (26:13 TOI, 6½ minutes more than any other defenceman) and Marty St.Louis (22:09, 5 minutes more than any other forward).

Pregame -- Canada 0, Sweden 0

Unlike the other three combatants today, the Swedes have no current Oilers, but do feature Oilers past (Dick Tarnstrom) and future (Linus Omark, pictured above and at right). I caught some of Omark's flashy skills at that Millennium Place prospects camp, but nothing that foreshadowed the big splash he made this year in the SEL not to mention Youtube. Young Lee-nus has also done himself at the proud at the Worlds, where he leads the Swedes in scoring with 2-8-10.

A key player for the Swedes on the back end is the old war horse Kenny Jonsson, who logs major minutes, contributes on the scoreboard (3-3-6) and leads the tourney by a wide margin in plus/minus (+12).

Canada will continue to rely on excellent special teams, including an awesome powerplay that has been clicking at 43.9% on 18-for-41. The PK unit has been solid allowing just 4 goals on 39 opportunities (89.7%), including a couple of extended 3-on-5s and even that 3-on-6. Only Austria of all countries has a better PK rate, while Canada's PP is far ahead of the pack. Of particular interest today is Sweden, who rank middle of the pack in both categories at +8/-8.

Thanks largely to special teams and goaltending (combined .948 Sv%), Canada leads the tourney in both GF (39) and GA (12).

To paraphrase the old saw about statistics, all of the above and $7.75 will buy you a beer at Rexall Place. Or it would, if Rexall were (ahem) open for business.

***

Update: Lindy Ruff has shuffled his top two lines, moving Shane Doan on to the Spezza line and bumping Heatley to the port side. Derek Roy assumes Doan's former spot with Stamkos and St.Louis, with MSL presumably lining up on the starboard side. The explanation was that the Ottawa duo needed to be shored up defensively. That's what Doan already Was doing with the Tampa tandem. Speaks volumes about the wonderful two-way game that Marty St. Louis brings to the table, but is less complimentary of Spezza and Heatley. The one constant in all this is that whatever line Shane Doan winds up on, he will help.

Game ON.

***

First intermission -- Canada 1, Sweden 0

Terrific first period. Both teams are flying, Canada a little higher and full value for the lead. What a beautiful goal it was, with tournament scoring leader Marty St.Louis burning Mattias Weinhandl along the end wall with a quick inside move, darting behind the net and drawing Weinhandl, the front-of-net defenceman, and the goalie to their right before slipping a back feed to Derek Roy lurking at the nearside post. With no defenders in sight, Roy merely had to make a high-skill play of taking the pass off the back of the cage, pull the puck just in front of the goal line, and roof one over a lunging Gustavsson from a very sharp angle. A sweet goal, especially for me. (I have "owned" both St.Louis and Roy long-term in my keeper league hockey pool, and am a big fan of both.)

Roy was flying all period, later making a superb play to receive a wayward pass outside the blueline, cut sharply to beat his man, drive wide and slip a seeing-eye pass through to Spezza for a dangerous deflection that Gustavsson did well to stop.

At the other end Roli was suctioning up pucks, wrapping himself around them and waiting for the whistle, secure in the knowledge that Canada has 3 guys in the top 20 in faceoffs, Sweden none. A couple of nervous moments in the late going though, especially when he failed to hold a muffin with a couple of seconds left in the frame.

On the blue, the impressive Drew Doughty has been paired with another fine youngster, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, with both getting Top Four minutes while Chris Phillips has been placed with Braydon Coburn on what seems to be the third pairing. The studly Shea Weber and Dan Hamhuis are clearly the top pair.

***

Second intermission -- Canada 3, Sweden 0

The comments section is rolling now so I'll keep this brief. Things continue to go well, with rapid fire goals by Horcoff at evens followed by Roy on the PP. Roli playing well. Swedes were bringing it at the end of the period, and will have a partial PP to start the third. Huge kill required ... I don't get the sense the Swedes are done, 3-0 or no 3-0.

***

Postgame - Canada 3, Sweden 1

Objects in the mirror were much closer than they appeared, as the Swedes carried their momentum into the third, dominating play in the Canadian end for shifts at a time. The Canadians seemed a step slow to loose pucks and had a terrible time clearing the zone. Inevitably the Swedes capaitalized with a goal 6 minutes in, as the Spezza-Heatley combination got burned yet again. As PDO mentioned, that pair has been on the ice for every ES goal against but one in the tournament, as well as the 1 shortie against Latvia. Great on the powerplay but ...

The Swedes continued to bring it as my knuckles whitened. The turning point was a penalty to Roy around 9 minutes in, which the Canadians killed far more effectively than they had been killing the clock at evens. The game stabilized at that point as the Candians raised their effort to match the Swedes, winning more puck battles and earning a far better distribution of zone time. Heatley and Spezza languished on the bench for the most part, as can be seen in Lindy Ruff's distribution of ice time:

20:41 Fisher
19:22 Horcoff
16:01 Zajac
15:44 Roy
15:39 St.Louis
13:28 Lombardi, Stamkos
12:33 Doan
12:00 Upshall
10:53 Heatley
10:49 Spezza
10:36 Armstrong

While we're at it, let's look at the blue, where the new pairings achieved a clear hierarchy:

24:12 Hamhuis
23:28 Weber
22:10 Doughty
21:58 Vlasic
13:39 Coburn
12:13 Phillips
00:00 Schenn, Kwiatkowski

Any thoughts that Drew Doughty was being protected by Phillips can safely be dispelled. He has a poised all-ice game that is reminiscent of a young Raymond Bourque in that both looked completely at home in the NHL from Day One. Doughty has responded to his first World Championships by posting a creditable 8 GP, 1-6-7, +5 at age 19. Clearly Lindy Ruff likes what he sees; it's interesting to compare ice time for Doughty and fellow high draft pick (and fellow stud) Luke Schenn.

To finish the ice time review, Roloson played all 60 minutes between the pipes and delivered a strong performance with 25 stops. While Mason still has the statistical edge, Roli (2.20, .936) has faced the stronger opponents. Lindy Ruff has an interesting decision to make Sunday.

Speaking of Sunday, Oil Droppings will once against host a Game Day Thread. After an early-morning appetizer of Omark and O'Sullivan, the Gold Medal Game gets underway at half past Noon MDT. Canada-Russia, the classic rivalry, the rematch of last year's overtime thriller. The winner will be the first country to win 25 World Championships.

Canada v. Finland

2009-05-04T12:00:00.029-06:00

***

SPOILER ALERT --
If you are planning to watch today's World Championship game on tape delay and don't want to know what happened, don't read on ... (until later please!). Thus for now I am not recording the score in the subject header, but it will be revealed in the text that follows. All I'll say about the game up top is that it was a fun game to watch.

***

Pregame -- Canada 0, Finland 0

It's been clear sailing for Canada so far at the Worlds, with an unbroken run of convincing victories. Have watched all or part of every game until yesterday's date with overmatched Norway, who did themselves proud by holding red-and-white to a modest 5-1 result. Norway scored the first meaningful goal allowed by Canada at the tourney, as it briefly tied the score midway through the first. The other 5 goals allowed by the good guys have all occurred with the team enjoying at least a 5-goal lead! This "home and cooled out" effect has resulted in some sloppy third periods, while both halves of the former Czechoslovakia significantly outshot Canada over 60 minutes. A great powerplay hides a lot of sins, but it's not all sweetness and light with Team Canada 2009.

Today's match-up with always-tough Finland is perfectly timed to give the squad a harder tune-up just before they play for keeps in the medal round. First place in Group F is on the line, as the Finns can overtake Canada by taking all 3 (!) points with a regulation win.

With the recent additions of splendid young blueliners Braydon Coburn and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Canada now has a wealth of riches on the back end. However just Travis Zajac was added up front. With the departure of James Neal due to an unfortunate eye injury, the forward ranks is down to exactly 12 players, with Ian White pencilled in as a swing man. Not sure why the team used yet a 9th defender, Joel Kwiatkowski, in a couple of preliminary games that they easily could have won shorthanded. Because they did, the club has now used the maximum 25 players and needs to stay healthy up front from here out.

Dwayne Roloson starts in goal for the biggest game of the tourney so far; the break in the rotation that saw Mason play the Norwegians yesterday appears to have been done to accommodate Roli in the #1 role. Nashville's Pekka Rinne, who this Oilers fan has seen far too much of this season already, starts for Finland.

Game on. More to come at the intermission.

***

First intermission -- Canada 1, Finland 2

Finns came out like gangbusters, more or less exactly as I had expected and hoped, and Canada was no match for them early on, as I half-expected and feared. The first 10 minutes were a fire drill and Canada had no idea of the escape routes, constantly pinning themselves in outmatched situations. The Roy-Spezza-Heatley line had a dreadful time of it, conceding both Finnish goals and a couple more chances of the Golden variety. The Finns were harder on the puck, more physical, more opportunistic, more everything. Exactly what the doctor ordered, frankly.

The red-and-white finally began to respond in the last third of the period, led by a dominant grinding shift by the Upshall-Lombardi-Armstrong trio. Upshall had a great shift, nearly scoring, decking Rinne in the crease while somehow drawing a penalty, and a scrum ensued which dispatched one more from each team to the box. The puck even wound up in the net, just after the whsitle unfortunately.

Still, that set the stage for the deadly Canadian powerplay, which clicked quickly to cut the lead in half. Spezza PP (St.Louis, Weber) has been a pretty typical outcome of a Canadian man-advantage, and it couldn't have come at a better time. The game is now stabilized with lots of time left. The Finns are continuing to bring it, but Canada is starting to match their speed and intensity.

Late in the period the Helicopter Line of Horcoff-Zajac-Fisher had an outstanding shift, with Horc making a great play to win a puck battle, slip the disc through to Zajac, and back up into perfect position for a booming one-timer which just missed the post.

So the grinders are doing their jobs, and the snipers are starting to do theirs. The defence needs to calm down a bit and stop pinching, as the Finns are clearly attacking the holes they leave behind. Roli needs to settle down a tad too, he's fighting the puck. Fortunately, he fought a few pucks to successful outcomes, by no means is the 2-1 deficit on the goaltending.

***

Second intermission -- Canada 2, Finland 3

The Finns continue to bring it, and the Canadians more than has their hands full today. TSN had the shots on net at 37-20 Finland just before the end of the period. A significant contributor that period was a series of 5 minor penalties to Canada in not much more than 10 minutes. After killing consecutive 4v5 situations, Canada got a brief powerplay that got cancelled by Doan's infraction which was apparently "two minutes for whacking at the rebound". Then Hamhuis got "two minutes for being strong on the puck", and Canada was facing an extended 3v5. A great sequence ensued with Horcoff, Weber and Vlasic playing the triangle with textbook precision.

But when Doan took yet another minor (his third, Canada's fifth of the period) the goal seemed ineveitable, and Niko Kapanen quickly made it so. That made it 3-1 late in the second. Fortunately Canada was quickly given a consolation powerplay and just as quickly converted, this time a snipe by all-time scoring leader Dany Heatley on a sweet deflection of Roy's bullet pass. That's 2-for-3 against a Finnish PK unit that entered he game at 96%.

Two incidents involving the ever-entertaining Jerkko Ruutu, both with happy outcomes. First of all Shea Weber just hammered him hard into the end boards. Ruutu went down and stayed down, apparently dead or quadriplegic, for about 1.5 seconds when he realized that Mr. Stripes wasn't buying, so he hopped to his feet and got into the play. I'm certain it hurt at least a little -- Weber really crushed him. :) Then in the dying seconds Jerkko got into it with Steven Stamkos, drawing two retaliatory shots from the youngster. Again Ruutu went down and, with the whistle already safely blown, stayed down, milking it for everything it was worth. Which turned out to be two minutes to each player. Ruutu's was for diving, a gutsy but correct call. It would seem European zebras have seen Jerkko's act before.

On to the third. Canada needs one point from this game ... tying it up and getting to overtime is all that really matters at this point. Still, would be nice to come all the way back and win it. It's a tall order, today.

***

Third intermission -- Canada 3, Finland 3

Tie is of the essence. Canada has wrapped up first in the group and a quarter final match-up with Latvia, courtesy a third powerplay goal. The Ottawa teammates who each scored earlier in the game, this time teamed up on a fine rush and pass by Spezza and solid finish by Heatley with his second goal in a row. Nervous moments at the end as Finland pulled the goalie to go for the regulation win, and even got a PP with 8 seconds to go. The PP will carry over into the immediately impending OT, but the outcome of the game is already in.

***

Postgame -- Canada 3, Finland 4 (SO)

An uptempo overtime and an entertaining shootout later, the Finns emerge the "winners" even as Canada wraps up first place. Under quirky international rules, the shootout briefly became a one-on-one between St.Louis and Ruutu. Both went 2-for-3, with each connecting on a pair of backhands before missing on the forehand. St.Louis is the only shootout specialist I'm aware of who goes to the backhand the whole way, not just at the end of a deke but carrying the puck towards the net. Finland finally put it away in the 7th round on a nifty move by Hannes Hyvönen, the 4th puck to elude Roli in the showdown.

Back to the real hockey game which preceded it, where Roli certainly did deliver the goods, stopping 47 of 50 shots. A couple of bad rebounds, and a poor puckhandling play which led to the 3-1 goal, but a whole lot of solid stops and general hanging in there under pressure. Roli's confidence grew as the game went on, as he increasingly got into the faces if not the heads of the Finnish shooters.

Canada has a wealth of riches on the blueline with several guys making their case for an Olympic spot. I expect 7 of these guys to be at Olympic camp this summer. Shea Weber is the clear #1 on this club, playing 24:31 including nearly 11 minutes in the third and 5-minute OT. His partner and Nashville teammate Dan Hamhuis also soaked up the ice time again today. Given their ongoing solid play Stevie Y & Co. will have to seriously consider them as a pair. The new additions Vlasic and Coburn formed a second effective pairing, while Chris Phillips and Drew Doughty show an effective mix of experience and exuberance. Doughty and seventh man Luke Schenn are both on the radar for 2014, but the other guys have a legitimate shot at Vancouver 2010.

Same can be said up front, where only Doan and Heatley are likely comfortable with their spot in Vancouver, but St.Louis and Spezza are proving their worth on a nightly basis in Kloten. Meanwhile, guys like Horcoff, Roy, Fisher, and Lombardi may all be vying for the same spot of 13th forward in February.

Of more immediate concern is the current tournament, where all of the above are comfortably in the top 12 and contributing to Canada's greatest strength in the international scene -- depth of talent. We got at least two teams worth of wannabe Olympians, thus can always ice a competitive team even when the European season is over and half of our teams are still involved in the Stanley Cup playoffs. It's the healthiest form of competition, where each guy makes his personal case by being a good team player.

On to the quarterfinals, where Canada faces Latvia on Thursday morning, 08:15 MDT. Not quite a bye, but by (barely) passing today's test Canada has earned an easier route in the medal round, and acquired some badly-needed battle scars in the process. An excellent dual result.

I like our chances entering the sudden death round. Then again, I say that every year. :)

Introducing: The Erstwhile Oilers

2009-04-27T15:30:00.009-06:00

Given the absence of the Edmonton Oilers from the playoffs for a third consecutive year, I have once again taken up the bittersweet pursuit of following the Erstwhile Oilers, that group of former home-town heroes who, like Ray Whitney (pictured twice here), are contributing elsewhere. There are a few dozen Erstwhile Oilers scattered around the NHL, but come playoff time there usually seems to be just enough to fill a regulation NHL roster. So it is in 2009, where I have identified a "roster" of 25 active players with historical ties to the Oilers organization.

Here's that imaginary roster including 2008-09 stats (playoff stats through Apr 26):

Goal:

-----
T.Thomas,BOS

54 GP, 36-11-7, 2.10, .933

(4, 4-0, 1.50, .925)
T.Conklin,DET

40 GP, 25-11-2, 2.58, .909

(0, all zeroes)
S.Valiquette,NYR

15 GP, 5-5-2,,, 2.84, .907

(2, 0-0, 0.00, 1.000)

Defence:

--------
C.Pronger,ANA

82 GP, 12-36-48, EV (5, 1-1-2, +6)
J.Pitkanen,CAR

71 GP, 7-26-33,, +11(6, 0-3-3, +3)
R.Hamrlik,MTL

81 GP, 6-27-33,, +4 (4, 0-0-0, -5)
J.Hejda,CBJ

82 GP, 3-18-21,, +23(3, 0-0-0, -5)
T.Poti,WAS

52 GP, 3-10-13,, +2 (6, 2-4-6, +1)
J.Woywitka,STL

65 GP, 3-5-8,,,, +8 (4, 0-0-0, -1)

Forwards:

---------
Ra.Whitney,CAR

82 GP, 24-53-77, +2 (6, 2-4-6, -1)
J.Lupul,PHI

79 GP, 25-25-50, +1 (6, 1-1-2, +1)
B.Guerin,PIT

79 GP, 21-27-48, -12(6, 2-1-3, +3)
S.Samsonov,CAR

81 GP, 16-32-48, -8 (5, 0-1-1, EV)
E.Cole, CAR

80 GP, 18-24-42, EV (6, 0-0-0, -1)
C.Glencross,CAL

74 GP, 14-26-40, +14(5, 0-3-3, -1)
D.Cleary, DET

74 GP, 14-26-40, EV (4, 2-3-5, +6)
M.Satan,PIT

65 GP, 17-19-36, +3 (2, 0-0-0, EV)
M.Grier,S.J

62 GP, 10-13-23, +8 (5, 0-0-0, -1)
J.Chimera,CBJ

49 GP, 8-14-22,, +8 (4, 0-1-1, EV)
M.Peca,CBJ

71 GP, 4-18-22,, -6 (4, 0-0-0, +1)

B.Winchester,STL

64 GP, 13-8-21,, -1 (4, 0-0-0, -4)
R.Torres, CBJ

51 GP, 12-8-20,, -4 (4, 0-2-2, -3)
T.Marchant,ANA

72 GP, 5-13-18,, -2 (5, 0-1-1, +2)
K.Maltby, DET

78 GP, 5-6-11,,, -9 (4, 0-0-0, -2)
G.Laraque,MTL

33 GP, 0-2-2,,,, -6 (4, 0-0-0, -1)

Not the most balanced of rosters, especially up front where there are just two full-time centres in Peca and Marchant; so happens that Arnott, Weight, Stoll, Reasoner and Comrie all missed the playoffs this season. No Smytty either. Such is the nature of the "filter"; these aren't the best of the ex-OIlers, merely the ones who have played (or at least dressed) in the post-season. Which, of course, is more than one can say about any current Oilers.

I'm sure I missed a couple along the way, especially of the Tim Thomas type, who was Edmonton property for a time without ever playing an NHL game for the Oil. Please post any names that come to mind in the comments section.

Only the Devils, Canucks and Hawks don't have any ex-Oilers, while the Hurricanes and Scott Howson's Blue Jackets each have 4.

While the list speaks for itself, I certainly do not mean to imply that all of these guys moving on represent mistakes by Oilers management; indeed several of them were moved for each other so there is no way we could have kept all of them. Of particular note is the sequence Woywitka-begat-Pronger-begat-Lupul-begat-Pitkanen-begat-Cole-begat-O'Sullivan, all trades which have occurred since the lockout. All but Woywitka (who is standing in for the injured Eric Brewer) were the primary player in their respective trades both coming and going. The key point seems to be the Oilers have never been able to stabilize what should be an important asset, with each guy arriving with high expectations but moving on to greener pastures after a year or even less. Need I add, all but O'Sullivan have played in the 2009 post-season.

I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to establish imaginary line combinations for the Erstwhile Oilers, such as the Pennies-on-the-Dollar Line of Whitney, Satan and Chimera ...

Canada 6, Belarus 1 -- a good start

2009-04-24T15:42:00.021-06:00

Team Canada 2009 took to the ice earlier today in Kloten, Switzerland. The club had no opportunity for exhibition games, but the opening preliminary round match against Belarus was pretty much that. The squad, ably coached by Lindy Ruff, Barry Trotz and Dave Tippett, played a pretty solid all-around game, all things considered.

The success formula for Canada or pretty much any club at this tourney is to build cohesiveness through the early rounds and peak for the medal round. The early games are generally against inferior opponents and tend to be sloppy affairs. That was less true than usual today, as Canada jumped out to an early 2-0 lead courtesy a pair of goals by Steven Stamkos, and held that modest lead through 40 minutes before exploding for 4 goals in the third to put it away.

While at first glance the current squad appears underwhelming, Canada's depth is such that we always have a respectable team with a fighing chance of taking home the gold (5 of the last 15). I see no reason why the current group shouldn't aspire to that, especially with a couple of spots held open for reinforcements.

Today's lines were as follows:

1. D. Roy - J. Spezza - D. Heatley

For obvious reasons the coaches stuck with pairs of teammates when possible. The Ottawa pair showed their chemistry in the third when they combined for three goals, with each finishing the night +3 with 3 points. Best of the lot was the one Spezza literally stuck in the roof of the net after Heatley froze the defence with a fake shot before slipping it through. Roy, playing out of position, did OK, but I have half a mind he's just a placeholder for Rick Nash if he's healthy enough to come over.

2. M. St.Louis - S. Stamkos - S. Doan

Stamkos turned the corner on his rookie season around the time St.Louis was put on his line, noching 17 goals in his last 28 games after just 6 in his first 51. According to HockeyAnalysis.com the pair played 230 minutes together, scoring at a rate of 1.474 GF per 20 minutes. When apart Stamkos recorded just 0.540 GF/20. We saw that chemistry seconds into their first shift when Stamkos converted MSL's bullet feed across the goal mouth into the early lead. Doan provides a perfect complement with his gritty two-way play and broad international experience.

3. M. Lombardi - S. Horcoff - S. Upshall

Finally pencilled in at what some would call his "natural" spot of 3C, Horcoff nonetheless led all Canadian fowards with 18:20 TOI, almost 3 minutes more than the next guy, his linemate Lombardi. Horc was first choice in the long 3v5 Canada killed in the second and a major contributor to the PK unit generally. Like Roy, Lombardi is a centre forced out to the wing. Wild card here is Upshall, who lit it up in Phoenix after a mostly desultory year in Philadelphia.

4. J. Neal - M. Fisher - C. Armstrong

Fantastic looking crash line, three guys with no little skill that skate hard both ways carrying a chip on their shoulder. Fisher absolutely crushed one poor Belarussian with a wicked shoulder check. The line also chipped in with a goal on a fine three-way passing play. These guys are going to be fun to watch.

1. D. Hamhuis - S. Weber

Talented young pairing with buckets of international experience. They look like a natural pair with a righty and a lefty but mostly play with separate partners in Nashville (Hamhuis-Zanon; Weber-Suter). Still seemed to know each other pretty well, playing a solid, assertive and coordinated game.

2. C. Phillips - D. Doughty

Although they had couple of rocky moments, the veteran shutdown man Phillips would seem to be a perfect complement for the talented Doughty, one of three teenaged Canadians who was picked at last June's draft. Doughty combined with his fellow top pick Stamkos on a beauty give-and-go that resulted in the game winning goal.

3. I. White - L. Schenn

One wouldn't expect this to be a regular pair in the NHL for a couple of reasons, but to my surprise the two righties played over 266 minutes together this year. Truth be told, I'm a little baffled as to White's presence on the team -- he's the one guy in the group who doesn't appear to have top pairing potential -- but he's a mobile puck mover whose defensive game needs a little less work than it used to. Schenn is an absolute beauty of a young shutdown defender who accomplished the difficult feat of continuing to impress me this season despite playing for the Leafs.

G - D. Roloson

Roli was in fine fettle, even hit a fungo midway through the game. Got away with one puckhandling blunder late in the first when he stumbled into the net and knocked it loose just as Grabovski was depositing the gift, and even though it was a defensive player responsible IIHF rules disallowed the goal. In the second Roloson made a sensational two-pad stack on a fine rush by Grabovski to hold the lead at 2-0, but later bled a fat rebound to the same Grabovski -- by FAR the best Belarussian -- to lose his shutout late in the third. Looked rested and focussed.

Josh Harding backed up this game, but with Chris Mason en route we probably won't get a look at the Wild young backup who many favour as a possible answer in the Oilers' crease. Or maybe Harding will get a token game against Canada's next opponent, overmatched Hungary playing in the A Pool for the first time since 1939. That'll be on the tube Sunday afternoon for those who want to see different coloured unis and a probable butt-kicking. I'll be out of town for that one, but otherwise will be following Team Canada's progress here on Oil Droppings, including live blogs for the big games in the medal round. Those of you who are following the tournament (or who can't due to its often-inconvenient game times), do drop in!

Team Togetherness

2009-04-16T20:00:00.009-06:00

Some interesting quotes in today's news cycle:

"We need a new voice, we need a new start, we need new expectations, we need a new discipline, and it’s time to look forward here."

 Steve Tambellini, on expectations
***

"Mac really thought he couldn’t do any more with the group."

 Kevin Lowe, on accountability
[note how it is “the” group and not “our” group let alone “my” group]
***

"The thing that was maybe most disappointing for me was our culture took a hit, in terms of our work ethic and our selflessness."

 Craig MacTavish, on professionalism
***

"I’m always proud of the way I play, I’m always proud of the way I prepare and proud of the way I carry myself."

 Ethan Moreau, on himself
***

"If you’re in the NHL, if you want to have a good career, you should be able to motivate yourself."

 Ethan Moreau, on others
***

"We have some good veterans that hopefully want to be a part of this going forward. But I can tell you things are going to change as far as expectations and preparation from the players’ standpoint."

 Steve Tambellini, on the future
***

"We got behind the 8-ball right away, we took an undisciplined penalty. I love Scottie Hartnell’s emotion but he’s got to find that line of discipline and I don’t really think he did tonight. He’s a guy we count on to kill penalties, he’s a guy we count on a lot. ... He ends up in the penalty box way too much and that’s something we’re going to have to correct."

 John Stevens, coach of an actual playoff team, on Real accountability

The missing link

2009-04-08T15:00:00.038-06:00

I know the pieces fit cuz I watched them tumble down

No fault, none to blame it doesn't mean I don't desire to

Point the finger, blame the other, watch the temple topple over

To bring the pieces back together, rediscover communication

Tool -- Schism

*****

I cited this tune over at Lowetide's place the other day, finding some of Maynard James Keenan's lyrics resonated with the (hotly-denied!) reports of a rift in the Oilers' room and with the state of the roster in general. Rather than dally with the rumours or try to divine the true intelligence behind Ethan Moreau's remarks, I focussed on matters of record, namely birth certificates. These reveal a stunning gap where the heart of the roster should be. To recap the findings of my previous post, here are Oilers players and GP by age group through 78 games in 2008-09:

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... AvGP .. %team
----------------------------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 61 ..... 61 ..... 4%
33-35 ..... 3 .... 217 ..... 72 .... 15%
30-32 ..... 8 .... 332 ..... 42 .... 22%
27-29 ..... 1 ..... 20 ..... 20 ..... 1%
24-26 ..... 9 .... 443 ..... 49 .... 30%
21-23 .... 10 .... 343 ..... 34 .... 23%
18-20 ..... 1 ..... 72 ..... 72 ..... 5%
----------------------------------------
Total .... 33 ... 1488 ..... 45 ... 100%

I have added two columns. The first is simply the average number of GP for players in the given age group; the second expresses the percentage of team GP for each age group. Here's a crude graph showing that % of GP distribution, featuring a very odd double-peaked curve.

That looks not so much like a team, but two different ones.

Comparison is the next stage of the analysis; it is obvious at first glance that the current age distribution is out of the ordinary, but how much so? Surely the place to start is with the '05-06 Oilers, the last time we know the pieces fit. Here was the distribution by age of the House of Cards that Kevin Built.

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... AvGP .. %team
----------------------------------------
36-39 ..... 2 ..... 56 ..... 28 ..... 4%
33-35 ..... 2 ..... 43 ..... 22 ..... 3%
30-32 ..... 9 .... 536 ..... 60 .... 34%
27-29 ..... 9 .... 472 ..... 52 .... 30%
24-26 ..... 7 .... 235 ..... 33 .... 15%
21-23 ..... 6 .... 204 ..... 34 .... 13%
18-20 ..... 3 ..... 25 ...... 8 ..... 2%
----------------------------------------
Total .... 38 ... 1571 ..... 41 ... 100%

In each column there's a fairly normal Bell curve with a single peak. Almost half (18 of 38, or 47%) of the players who suited up for the Oil during that chaotic season were between 27 and 32; moreover the same group played more games per player than the other groups; combine the two and the 27-to-32-year olds played fully 64% of the games. It's an interesting contrast to 2008-09, where not only is that huge hole at the age 27-29 level, but the distribution within groups is strange. Players over 33 averaged 70 GP; those between 27-32 averaged just 39. In 2008-09 the 27-32 y.o. group comprised just 27% of the full roster and played only 23% of the games. Let's compare the two graphically, with the 2005-06 Oilers represented in copper, the '08-09 squad in blue.

There are superficial similarities between the central curve of the '05-06 Oilers and the younger lobe of the current version, but there is a 5-year difference in maturity. More generally, the above starkly demonstrates the '08-09 Oilers have far more players near the beginning or end of their careers, while the '05-06 club had a critical mass of players near their peak.

Of course the 2005-06 regular season Oilers that stumbled and bumbled their way to 8th place was different from the leaner version that was wildly successful in that same post-season. Some guys were traded off mid-season; others who had a cup o' coffee at some point were out of the mix come playoff time, as was the case with all three 20-year-olds (Pouliot, Jacques, Syvret).

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP ... %team
--------------------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 18 ...... 4%
33-35 ..... 1 ..... 24 ...... 5%
30-32 ..... 9 .... 169 ..... 37%
27-29 ..... 8 .... 130 ..... 28%
24-26 ..... 4 ..... 74 ..... 16%
21-23 ..... 2 ..... 42 ...... 9%
18-20 ..... 0 ...... 0 ...... 0%
--------------------------------
Total .... 25 .... 457 .... 100%

The 27-32 y.o. set comprised 68% of the active players and played 65% of the games, while the under-24s played an even smaller role with only Hemsky and Greene getting a sniff of playoff action. I won't show a graph, which varies but little between regular season and playoffs. I have noted for future reference that playoff rosters might provide a more streamlined methodology, a little less clutter with fewer players and a more constant "best possible" line-up. Of course, for that method to work the team in question has to actually make the @#$%^&* playoffs.

Which brings us back to 2008-09, where it's instructive to compare the Oilers with the competition. I'm using brute force, not code, so won't do the whole league. Let's just compare with geographic rivals and Northwest Division co-leaders Calgary and Vancouver. Here I have reduced each team to just the number of players in each age category, and the percentage of GP for each group.

Age ..... Edmonton .. Vancouver .. Calgary
Group ... # / %team . # / %team . # / %team
-------------------------------------------
36-39 ... 1 // 4% ... 1 // 3% ... 1 // 5%
33-35 ... 3 / 15% ... 3 // 8% ... 3 / 12%
30-32 ... 8 / 22% ... 3 / 14% ... 6 / 23%
27-29 ... 1 // 1% .. 13 / 38% ... 6 / 20%
24-26 ... 9 / 30% ... 5 / 16% .. 11 / 30%
21-23 .. 10 / 23% ... 7 / 21% ... 5 / 11%
18-20 ... 1 // 5% ... 0 // 0% ... 0 // 0%
-------------------------------------------
Total .. 33 /100% .. 32 /100% .. 32 /100%

The Oilers have gotten more GP out of guys 33 and older than either rival, and more GP from guys 23 and younger. In the middle both divisional rivals far outstrip the Oilers; note the 13 players Vancouver has used in the 27-29 group, compared to Edmonton's 1. Calgary's curve peaks a little younger, but fully 73% of their games have been played by players aged 24-32, compared to 68% for Vancouver and just 53% for Edmonton. Here's a graph showing Vancouver in green, Calgary in red, Edmonton in blue.

Next year Dustin Penner and Tom Gilbert -- dangerously assuming either is still around -- will turn 27; Pouliot, Jacques, Stortini, Reddox and O'Sullivan all "graduate" to age 24, and their whole generation of players will be one year older and presumably better. At the same time, Sheldon Souray, Lubo Visnovsky, and Fernando Pisani all turn 33, Steve Staios turns 36, and lest we forget, Dwayne Roloson turns 40. Whatever the validity of my artificial brackets, it's pretty tough to argue those guys on the far side of 30 will be getting much better; they'll just be getting older. The wheel of time keeps turning, but given the void of players cycling through the top of the career curve ours seems to be missing an axle.

It is incumbent on Oilers management to address this gaping hole in the coming l-o-n-g off-season. Such a hole cannot be readily filled from within.

A room divided?

2009-04-04T16:04:00.010-07:00

In 2006 the Oilers made a thrilling run to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. It was a veteran group: 19 of the 25 players who dressed during the playoff run were aged 27 or older, the other 6 age 25 or younger.

Fast forward three years, and just 6 players remain from that Cinderella crew. 5 of them were, and remain, veterans: Dwayne Roloson, age* 39; Steve Staios, 35; Ethan Moreau, 33; Fernando Pisani, 32; Shawn Horcoff, 30. Of the youngsters, only the enigmatic Ales Hemsky, now 25, remains an Oiler.

( * - "hockey age" as of Feb 1, as per Hockey-Reference.com)

Brad Winchester and Marc-Andre Bergeron were in the pressbox during those Stanley Cup Finals and were gone within a year. Of the four key youngsters of that run, last summer's trades of Raffi Torres (now 27), Jarret Stoll (26) and Matt Greene (25) gutted the squad of three of them. One of the departed players was moved for yet another unproven youngster, the other two netted a valuable but now injured veteran. Whatever the return, what was lost was an important link between the older and younger members of the team.

The 2008-09 Oilers are rumoured to be a fractured squad, with a significant group of 30-something vets, a larger group of youngsters with collectively little success in their pro careers, and not much in between to bridge the gap. Here's a breakdown of the 33 players who have suited up for Oil this season:

Age
Group ..... # ..... GP
----------------------
36-39 ..... 1 ..... 61
33-35 ..... 3 .... 217
30-32 ..... 8 .... 332
27-29 ... 1 ... 20
24-26 ..... 9 .... 443
21-23 .... 10 .... 343
18-20 ..... 1 ..... 72

----------------------

Total .... 33 ... 1488

That's right, a great big hole right in the centre of the Bell curve, which even the gigantic Steve MacIntyre cannot begin to fill. Other than SMac and his 67 minutes of ice time, there's not a single player on the roster in the prime age bracket of 27-29.

And when the likes of Ethan Moreau -- or Craig MacTavish for that matter -- looks around the room, he sees a bunch of 30-something guys who have been through the wars, many of them together, and then a bunch of youngsters whose history with the Oilers is one of failure. Is it any wonder there are rumours of a disconnect in the room?

Guest rant

2009-03-30T22:41:00.008-07:00

Got a beauty email from a friend, let's call him "Dave", who has been a season ticket holder for a number of years. Other than his association with me, Dave doesn't frequent the Oilogosphere. It was interesting to read his independent conclusions, so much so that I asked and received his permission to post his comments here. I thought it would be a nice change of pace for my blog to have a post that featured short sentences, each one that actually had a point.

***

As for the Oilers:
Color them dark brown, as in done like a Sunday roast.
The two Minny games and the Phoenix game amply pointed out the prime problems.
There's no passion. The Coach yawns through games.
This is a a passive collection of individual players, not a team.
There's no real leadership, starting right at the top, but mostly behind the bench.
There is no obvious focus, strategy, game plan or set of tactics other than passive defence and inflexible offence.
The penalty kill consists of a simple box with no puck pressure.
The power play consists of "ring around the rosie" then pass to Souray.
Defence is "active sticks'" positional play with little physical play or puck pressure.
A one goal lead is protected by single player forecheck and "back up like mad" defence.
Breakouts are based on multiple in-zone passes until the other team is organized, followed by slow movement through the neutral zone.
Offence consists of drop passes and making plays at the offensive blue line.
Nobody is encouraged to dump and chase.
Leaving a defensive position to recover a puck broken loose by a good forecheck or hit is discouraged. They never outman the defence in the oh-oh zone.
The best scoring player is harangued by the coach to play defence.
The +/- leader is relegated to the 4th line while the No. 1 line is deep in the +/- hole.
The line blender get turned on every second period.
The big bruiser gets left in the press box so the skilled players get pushed around.
The No. 1 goalie gets worked until he starts giving up bad goals from fatigue.
Four lines get played regardless of the score, until the 3rd period at least.

I hope they finish 12th. Maybe that will finally push the owner into making the necessary changes in management, the coach for non-performance and Mr. Lowe for not recognizing the fundamental problems and dealing with them. At least I wouldn't waste money in a fruitless first playoff round and the possibility that the futility would continue next year.

Bruised Black and Blue Dave

Oilers 5, Ducks 3 -- player gradings

2009-03-28T17:19:00.012-07:00

Dwayne Roloson gigantic in Oil crease

I have offered to assist in David Staples' latest project over at Cult of Hockey, namely to grade the Oilers' players on a game-by-game basis. This is a collective effort, I'm just one member of a team of markers.

The scoring system is as follows: 10, perfect game; 9, extraordinary game; 8, great game; 7, good game; 6, above average game; 5, average game; 4, below average game; 3, bad game; 2, terrible game; 1, trade this player or send him to the minors.
***

Well that was a wild affair in Anaheim last night, an intense game with lots of bad feeling, especially after the whistle. The long-overdue returns of Zack Stortini and J.F.Jacques helped the Oilers hold their own in the physical battle, as both made their presence felt in limited ice time. Oilers rode a pair of two-goal outbursts early in the first and second periods and as they tend to do, tried to sit on the leads for the whole rest of the game. Shots on goal were one-sided at 54-20, and shots AT goal even more so at an astonishing 93-30. In the third period alone, Anaheim directed 39 shots towards Dwayne Roloson, the Oilers just 4 at Jonas Hiller, and eventually 1 into an empty net that finally allowed Oiler fans to breathe easily for the last dozen seconds. I had long since turned blue at that point, as had the air in my living room with various oaths directed at Chris Pronger, Corey Perry, the officials, and whoever was the latest Oiler to not get the puck out of his own end. But we'll take the two points, and the big zero looks good on Anaheim too. To walk into their building trailing them in the standings and to leave with a one-point lead is a sweet outcome.
***

Ladislav Smid – 6: Ladi was one who had occasional difficulties clearing the zone, but played some strong defence and took his job of clearing Roli’s crease seriously as Todd Marchant discovered. Got a rare shift on the powerplay and forced a fine stop from Hiller with a well-placed shot. Finished the night +1.

Shawn Horcoff – 6: Workhorse led all forwards on both teams with 23:53, including 7:51 on the PK unit which spent much of the night in chase mode but wound up killing 8 of 9 Duck powerplays. A key assist on the game’s first goal, +1, and a very creditable 15-9, 63% in the faceoff circle on a night when 9 (!) other Oiler forwards won just 32% (12-27) of their draws combined.

Andrew Cogliano – 5: Made a nice pass to Pisani for the 2-0 goal, but spent much of the night riding the pine, posting just 7:42 TOI, as his linemates Pisani and Moreau contributed to an overworked PK unit. Just 1-4, 20% on the dot which is all too typical for Andrew.

Ethan Moreau – 5: One of the more effective penalty killers when he wasn’t in the box himself serving his 999th and 1000th career penalty minutes for another careless stick foul. Did not perform well at even strength, posting a team-worst -12 Corsi number, and was one of just two Oilers (also Gagner) to wind up -1 on the night. Contributed a humorous moment when he received a perfect breakout pass in his own zone and with nobody around, performed a spectacular pratfall and turned it over.

Patrick O’Sullivan – 6: Oilers actually outshot Anaheim 5-4 with O’Sullivan on the ice, one of just 2 Oilers with a positive figure (linemate Penner being the other). O’Sullivan also made a strong contribution on the PK, especially on a 3-on-5 late in the first with Horcoff in the box.

Ales Kotalik – 6: A fairly strong performance with 3 shots capped by the empty netter. Kotalik drew two Anaheim penalties, however took two of his own although I’m prepared to give him a pass for that cheap puck-over-glass infraction when he scooped a dangerous rebound from Roli’s crease. He plays a fairly robust game, and Oilers need as much of that as they can get.

J-F Jacques – 6: A rambunctious return. His first four shifts covered just 0:22 of TOI combined, yet in that time he had a fight and threw a booming hit behind the net which led directly to Brodziak’s game-winning goal and drew a retaliatory penalty besides. I’m sure David Staples will grant an unofficial assist to both JFJ and Stortini for their involvement in that “unassisted” goal. His careless four-minute high-sticking penalty midway through the third docks him one full mark.

Steve Staios – 5: Trademark gritty effort, but Oilers were outchanced 8-2 with Steve on the ice at evens and 9-0 on the penalty kill. Puck was in our end virtually all the time he was out there. He and Souray miscommunicated on Perry’s goal that made it 4-3 early in the third. 2 hits, 2 blocks, and somehow wound up the night +1.

Dustin Penner – 8: Oilers’ best skater in his old barn, and posted the only positive Corsi of the night (+3). Also was the only Oiler to be on for more scoring chances for than against at even strength, and the only player who recorded +2. (Pronger was at the other extreme, posting a game-worst -3.) Penner led the team with 4 shots and more importantly, 2 goals, both of them giving the Oilers the lead. Landed 2 hits, went into the high traffic areas and paid the price to score the powerplay goal that put Oilers ahead to stay. Also drew a penalty with some dogged work along the boards.

Fernando Pisani – 6: Scored the 2-0 goal on a wicked snapshot, otherwise spent a lot of the game in Oilers’ end, especially on the PK where he played over 8 minutes. Seemed to be running on empty more than once at the end of too-long shifts. His experience and composure shone through at key moments.

Dwayne Roloson – 9: Sorry Roli, no shutout, no perfect 10. All you did was win the game for us. Of all the Oilers who played 6 games in 6 cities over 9 nights, the oldest one had the most energy and focus. A fantastic game for the team MVP when his club needed him the most. Dennis at MC79hockey had the scoring chances at 41-17 Anaheim, including no fewer than 19 chances with the man advantage where shooting percentages are significantly higher. Usually. The axiom about the goalie being the team’s best penalty-killer was never truer than last night on the Pond.

Denis Grebeshkov – 6: Spent a little too much time on his heels, and had a couple of his occasional episodes with the puck, including a brutal giveaway in the opening seconds of the game. Led the team in TOI at 24:47, and in blocked shots with 4. Grebs’ crisp pass to Hemsky allowed Ales to gain the zone with speed on the play that led to Penner’s powerplay goal, surely earning one of David’s unofficial assists.

Jason Strudwick – 6: The veteran delivered everything he’s capable of, a dozen minutes of grit and effort. Slower than tectonic plates, Struds kept the play to the outside for the most part, cleared the crease, and contributed a team-leading 3 hits. Surprisingly, co-led the club in attempted shots (4, tied with Horcoff and Penner).

Sheldon Souray – 6: Solid effort. A presence in the defensive zone who contributed big minutes on the PK unit. Didn’t have a big night offensively, in fact did not so much as attempt a shot on goal which may be a first. Nonetheless scored a late assist for his key shot block off of Perry’s last dangerous rush which led directly to Kotalik’s empty netter.

Zack Stortini – 7: Returned from a wholly-undeserved 8-game layoff to do what he does, which is exactly what this team needed. Levelled Wisniewski with a great open-ice hit, then came back hard on the backcheck and eventually intercepted Parros who was heading for Roli’s doorstep with malice aforethought. The subsequent fight was no surprise, but Zack winning it decisively was a little unexpected. Later crashed the net hard and created a commotion that was instrumental in Brodziak’s game winner getting through. One camera angle indicated pretty decisively that Stortini actually deflected that shot.

Kyle Brodziak – 6: Back in his comfort zone playing on the Plumb Line with Jacques and Stortini. Scored the winner on his only shot, blocked 3 shots and contributed to the overworked penalty kill. Just 5-8, 38% in the circle, which led to some of the extended zone pressure the Oilers endured.

Tom Gilbert – 5: The Ducks appeared to be targeting Gilbert for heavy forechecking, and Tom was coming out second best in the battle for puck possession a little too often for my liking, including on the first Ducks’ goal. Seemed to raise his battle level a little as the game went on.

Ales Hemsky – 6: His line with Gagner and Kotalik was outplayed for the most part, outshot 9-2 with Hemsky on the ice, and outchanced 8-2. Did make a nice play to Gagner that led to Penner’s powerplay goal, and a great play while being tripped to clear the zone on Kotalik’s empty-netter. Missed an empty net himself a few minutes earlier which would have alleviated my dangerously high blood pressure.

Sam Gagner – 5: A hard night for the kid. While he won’t back down from anybody, the boy against men aspect sometimes shines through in physical games like this one. 3-5, 38% on the dot. Did earn a powerplay assist on a smart feed to Penner on the doorstep.

Craig MacTavish – 6: His decision to insert Stortini and Jacques, while overdue, was the right choice for a physical opponent like the Ducks. The way his team backs up when it has the lead drives me crazy, but at this point of the season it’s all about results. Oilers got two points, the Ducks got none, and MacT gets a passing grade.

Paging Mr. Hemsky … white courtesy telephone please

2009-03-22T11:58:00.004-07:00

Ales? Ales? Are you there, Ales?

For the second year in a row the Oilers are engaging in a second half playoff run with their putative star player seemingly missing in action. Last year Hemsky scored some on the powerplay, but bled goals against at evens, posting a brutal -13 rating after the All-Star break. This year the +/- isn’t so bad, but the scoring has dried up including on the powerplay where production from Hemsky is essential to production from the unit.

It’s interesting to compare the production of Ales Hemsky, first line right winger and team leading scorer, with that of Zack Stortini, 4th/5th line right winger and 9-minute a game grinder. Entering this afternoon’s game at Minnesota, this is what the two have done over their last 15 games played:

Hemsky : 15 GP, 3-4-7, -2
Stortini:15 GP, 4-3-7, +2

Now I’ll readily admit this is cherry-picking to some extent, that 15-game run is by far the best production of Stortini’s career, although somehow not enough to prevent a wholly-undeserved five-game vacation in the press box. But the point is that Hemsky is being paid, and played, to produce, and he hasn’t been doing it. 15 games is a significant enough segment of the schedule that he should be far ahead of the likes of Zack Stortini.

Let’s dig a little deeper:

Even strength
Hemsky : 223:33, 3-1-4, 1.07 ESP/60
Stortini:133:06, 4-3-7, 3.16 ESP/60

Powerplay
Hemsky : 59:02, 0-2-2, 2.03 PPP/60
Stortini: 1:18, 0-0-0

Two points, both secondary assists, in 15 games for Mr. Power Play. One assist in 15 games at even strength for Mr. Playmaker. One assist on an empty netter.

Ales looks frustrated out there. Even the acquisition and insertion of his buddy and fellow Ales, Kotalik, on his line accomplished nothing. Is he hurt? Or just in another second-half funk?

Groundhog Day was six weeks ago, Ales. The time to wake up is Now.

Oilers 8, Avalanche 1 -- player gradings

2009-03-20T23:47:00.003-07:00

The scoring system is as follows: 10, perfect game; 9, extraordinary game; 8, great game; 7, good game; 6, above average game; 5, average game; 4, below average game; 3, bad game; 2, terrible game; 1, trade this player or send him to the minors.

***

After four consecutive overtime nailbiters, the Oilers were due a blowout one way or the other, and this one went the good way. Oilers rode goals from each of the four lines to stake out a 4-1 lead through 40 minutes, then tacked on four more in the third to turn it into a laugher. Where were those third period goals last week when we really needed them?

Hard to read too much into a game where the Avalanche had guys named Vernace, Galiardi and Peltier where Sakic, Stastny and Foote used to be. Still, we’ll take the two points, and hope that the offensive eruption kick-starts the offence for the stretch drive.
***

Ladislav Smid – 6: Had a tough couple of shifts early in the game including a dubious interference penalty, but got stronger as the night went on. Took yet another headshot, a cheap elbow from Laperriere that knocked Ladi down but not out. I hate to say it, but the way guys run him every night, he needs to learn to bring his stick up to protect himself. Right now he’s way too much fun to hit.

Shawn Horcoff – 6: A solid effort which wasn’t rewarded at even strength, but did contribute the game winning goal on a first period powerplay. As usual, led all forwards in TOI, a relatively light 17:22 as MacT rested his first line in the third period when they could have been out there fattening up their stats.

Robert Nilsson – 8: His line with Gagner and Kotalik had the puck on a string, especially in the second half of the game with Colorado losing interest. Earned his three assists with beautiful passes. He can be a gamebreaking playmaker when he’s on, and he appears to be coming around during the stretch drive for the second year running.

Andrew Cogliano – 5: Didn’t make a whole lot happen. Oilers were outshot 5-1 with Andrew on the ice, yet he wound up +1. Posted another dismal night in the faceoff circle, just 4-10, 29% which actually improved his faceoff percentage for the month of March. It’s hard to understand how he’s actually getting even worse on the dot, but he is.

Ethan Moreau – 7: Opened the scoring, later added an assist, helped out on a PK unit that recorded a clean sheet for the first time in 9 games, and didn’t add to the workload by taking any penalties himself. This was the “good Ethan”.

Patrick O’Sullivan – 6: Did everything but finish, forcing Budaj’s best (only?) save of the night after a sweet Hemsky feed. Showed good vision at times and very nice hands at others. It seems a matter of time before he and Hemsky start to click.

Ales Kotalik – 8: After six scoreless games, the shootout winner against St.Louis may have lifted the piano off his back. Looked excellent on his natural right wing with Gagner and Nilsson, driving to the net to finish one beauty pass from Gagner, then returning the favour with a sweet goalmouth feed of his own. 4 points, +3 in just 11:10 TOI.

Steve Staios – 7: Has played by far his best hockey of the season since the injury to Visnovsky bumped him into the top 4. “Heady Steve” was on the ice for 4 even strength scoring chances for, just 1 against; contributed 3:39 to the PK unit, posted an assist, and finished the night a tidy +2.

Dustin Penner – 6: The big guy barely made a ripple on the event summary – 1 shot that didn’t get through, 0 hits, 1 takeaway, 2 blocked shots, 1 won faceoff -- but finally hit the scoresheet with 2 assists, ending a 12-game pointless drought. Finished the night +2 at evens while contributing to a solid power play unit. Played a strong game along the boards and always seemed to be to be in the right position, driving play in the right direction.

Fernando Pisani – 6: Low event game, just 1 scoring chance for, 2 against at evens. Made the most of that one chance, potting a goal on a wicked shot over Budaj’s shoulder. Had a strong game on the PK.

Dwayne Roloson – 7: Allowed a weak, weird goal early, but slammed the door after that. Did his puck batting routine a couple of times, hitting one clean single to centre and one weak dribbler to the second baseman that caused a little defensive zone grief. Picked the right night to fool around a bit.

Denis Grebeshkov – 6: Led all players on both teams with 24:41 TOI. Skated miles, 2 shots, 2 hits, 2 blocked shots, +1. Oilers were significantly outshot and outchanced with Grebs on the ice, however.

Jason Strudwick – 7: A solid effort from the journeyman. Played 18:14, including over 16 minutes at evens when the Avalanche generate just one scoring chance. 1 takeaway, 2 blocked shots, a team-leading 3 hits, +2.

Sheldon Souray – 8: The Oilers’ big bomber was firing away, leading the club with 4 shots on goal and 9 attempted shots. One of them found twine, his 21st of the season, tying Ales Hemsky for the club lead. Had a solid defensive game with 3 takeaways, 0 giveaways. With Souray on the ice, the Oilers outchanced the Avs 4-1 at evens, 3-0 on the powerplay, and 2-1 even while shorthanded.

Kyle Brodziak – 6: A decent performance centring Moreau and Penner, contributing to the perfect PK unit, and dominating in the circle (10-5, 67%). One assist, +2.

Tom Gilbert – 6: Some trouble in Oilers’ zone, including a misread on the lone Avs goal. Made up for it at the good end with 2 assists to pass Hemsky for the club lead with 36.

Ales Hemsky – 5: Somehow generated zero points and posted a -1 in an 8-1 romp. The Oil didn’t need their leading scorer on this night, but they are going to need him soon. He did make at least three beautiful passes to set up scoring chances, but the pucks are not bouncing in for Ales and his linemates just now.

Liam Reddox – 6: A fairly vanilla effort but nonetheless effective. Made a fine cross-seam pass to setup Pisani’s goal, and another to set up Souray’s shorthanded rocket which rang off the post and shook the cage. Also chipped in on the PK unit.

Sam Gagner – 9: I’ll give him a bonus point for his first (official) career hat trick, after he narrowly missed an earlier hat trick on a controversial video review in Ottawa. He and his linemates Kotalik and Nilsson had the puck on a string, racking up 11 points on the night, albeit much of the damage was done after the Avs had seemingly given up. Scored on all three of his shots. Sam has gotten hot down the stretch for the second year in a row, posting an impressive 7-5-12, +8 in his last 8 GP.

Another Day, Another Bettman Point

2009-03-16T23:29:00.029-07:00

Ooohhh!! A point! Big whoop! I know exactly how you feel, Gary.

In fact there are too damn many of your points floating around these days. In the last week the Oilers have accrued 3 of them, in consecutive overtime losses to Montreal, Atlanta and Colorado. But that's just the tip of the iceberg; in those same 5 days Tuesday-Saturday, fully half -- 21 of 42 -- NHL games awarded the bogus, er bonus point that gets awarded jointly to any two teams which can't decide a game in regulation. It's the most cockamamie system imaginable.

Of course it’s in a team’s best interest to win their games in regulation, but a club prone to playing a lot of close games – which is the vast majority of them – is better served by playing conservatively and going for overtime. A late game-deciding goal has far greater negative impact on the team allowing it than positive for the team scoring it. Assuming that Bettman points are split 50/50, which of course they are on a league-wide basis, every regulation tie is worth an average of 1.5 points. The law of averages dictates that the late GA means the loss of those 1.5 points, the late GF gains just 0.5. Might as well wait for overtime and go for it then, with your 1 point assured if you fail but full value for a victory given if you succeed.

This system does nothing less than compromise the competitive integrity of the game. If that sounds like a serious charge, it is. When two teams and their coaches reach an in-game situation where the score on the board serves both their interests for the time being, the system is broken.

Gary Bettman and his cronies have failed in their fiduciary capacity as stewards of the game, and the shambles that their gimmicks have made of the standings, the record books, and the very games being played in front of their paying customers cannot be undone.

***

Interesting to look at the cumulative standings of all NHL teams over the past ten seasons.

Season * GP * W * L * T * OTL = Pts. Pct.
-----------------------------------------
1998-99 2214 945-945-324- 00 = 2214 .500

* Introduction of Bettman Point Ver 1.0 *

1999-00 2296 1002-888-292-114 = 2425 .528
2000-01 2460 1078-956-304-122 = 2582 .525
2001-02 2460 1081-960-298-121 = 2581 .525
2002-03 2460 1073-918-314-155 = 2615 .532
2003-04 2460 1060-915-340-145 = 2605 .529

* Introduction of Bettman Point Ver 2.0 *

2005-06 2460 1230-949- 0 -281 = 2741 .557
2006-07 2460 1230-949- 0 -281 = 2741 .557
2007-08 2460 1230-958- 0 -272 = 2732 .555
2008-09 2060 1030-792- 0 -238 = 2298 .558

(2008-09 through Saturday, March 14)

For perspective it begins with the last year of standings sanity, where all games were worth the same two points and teams by definition played .500 hockey against themselves. But in 1999 that changed with the introduction of the Bettman point, awarded to teams that lost games in overtime (or to teams that won them in OT, depending on your interpretation). The idea, or so it was explained at the time, was that teams were playing too conservatively in overtime, hanging on to their one point. A win for the winner, a tie for the loser will put an end to that.

Overtime indeed became more wide-open; the percentage of games actually decided in OT doubled from 24.7% in 1997-98 to 49.7% in 2002-03. How much of that was due to the Bettman Point and how much to the 4-on-4 format that was introduced at the same time cannot be disentangled. The heavy cost, however, was that instead of hanging on in overtime for their one point, coaches started to do so in regulation, often for entire third periods at a time or even longer. And given the “new math” of Gary Bettman’s NHL, frequently both teams would be doing so simultaneously, cuz it was in both their interests. Coaches ain't stupid, and most of them passed Grade 6 arithmetic.

After the lockout – another blight on the historical and statistical continuity of the sport, and the second such which happened on Gary Bettman’s watch – the powers-that-be went a step further and brought in the shootout, thus ensuring that the third point would now be awarded in every game that reached overtime, not just the half or so of them that resulted in an overtime goal. Thus the value of a regulation tie soared from 1 point pre-1983, to an average of 1.00 points during the 15 years that decided overtimes split the points 2-0 and undecided OTs 1-1, to almost 1.25 points during the first variation of the Bettman Point, all the way to 1.50 points in the shootout era.

The results can be seen in the blocks above, which show the league winning percentage jumping in two discrete steps from its natural .500 (1917-99) to about .528 (1999-2004) to about .557 (2005-2009). Key word: “about”, as the median, once a reliable constant, now fluctuates from season to season, indeed from day to day. In past seasons I have tracked this median figure and observed a general upward slope; as the playoffs approach and the points become more dear, OT games become more common. Last year for example, I divided the season into 5 * 246-game segments:

# 3-pt. games * Segment % * YTD % * Mean Pts%

---------------------------------------------

1. * * 39 * * * 15.9% * * * 15.9% * .5396

2. * * 49 * * * 19.9% * * * 17.9% * .5447

3. * * 59 * * * 23.9% * * * 19.9% * .5498

4. * * 65 * * * 26.4% * * * 21.5% * .5539

5. * * 60 * * * 24.4% * * * 22.1% * .5553

While Bettman & Co. delivered on one part of their promise, no more tie results, in reality there are more tie games than ever.

Season * % Ties * % Regulation Ties

-----------------------------------
1917-18 * * 0 % * unknown

1927-28 * 16.8% * unknown
1937-38 * 18.8% * unknown

1947-48 * 18.9% * 18.9%
1957-58 * 16.2% * 16.2%
1967-68 * 17.1% * 17.1%
1977-78 * 18.3% * 18.3%

1987-88 * 11.5% * 17.4%
1997-98 * 15.5% * 20.5%
1998-99 * 14.6% * 20.1%

1999-00 * 12.7% * 22.6%
2000-01 * 12.4% * 22.3%
2001-02 * 12.1% * 22.0%
2002-03 * 12.8% * 25.4%
2003-04 * 13.8% * 25.6%

2005-06 * ----- * 22.8%
2006-07 * ----- * 22.8%
2007-08 * ----- * 22.1%
2008-09 * ----- * 23.1%

The above list takes a sample once per decade, and annually during the Bettman Point era. Pre-1942 I don’t have a reliable source of info on OT results, so don't have a handle on what percentage of games were tied after regulation. Following the elimination of regular season OT due to wartime travel restrictions right through 1983 all games were 60 minutes and a tie was a tie, splitting the (two) points. Roughly 18% of all games ended in ties.

After 1983 the 5-minute overtime started to prune the number of tie results down, even as the number of games tied after 60 rose to about 20% during the dead puck era. But in 1999, the Bettman point was introduced and the number of regulation ties surged to new highs. It has remained high ever since, with the last 9 seasons yielding the 9 highest percentages of the entire sample, with 22-26% of games tied through 60 minutes every season.

***

That extended rant aside, the rules are the rules, and the teams must play within them. How do they apply to the Oilers?

Recent results suggest that the Bettman Point (a.k.a. the “loser point”) has saved the Oilers from what could/should have been a major pratfall in the standings. 1-1-4 = 6 points is much less painful than 1-5, 2 points would be. Getting to overtime has saved our bacon.

It’s what we have done when we get there that is disturbing. The play-for-OT strategy only really works if you can win at least your share of overtime sessions and/or shootouts. I would argue that it’s the “winner point” that is the true Bettman Point, the two points for regulation having been split in the traditional manner of a tie and now only the third, free lunch point that’s up for grabs and awarded to the winner of the mini-game. It’s here where the Oilers have been an epic fail, playing under 11 minutes of overtime the last two weeks and being outscored 4-0. Four goals against in half a period. Yuck.

The Oilers have been outshot in each one of those overtimes and cumaltively by a 9-2 count, so clearly something is amiss. One can start with goaltending: 4 GA on 9 shots is just brutal. Makes one wonder if tired goalie syndrome is likely to manifest itself at the end of a long, tense night. This past week Roli posted a Sv% of .902 in regulation, but only .500 in OT over the three games which included two decidedly weak goals through the 5-hole. Ugh-ly. That said, a team which took two penalties in overtime and couldn't kill either one, allowed one clear breakaway in the dying seconds, and which failed to backcheck effectively (if at all) in their most recent defeat, can't just lay it all on the goaltender.

So the Oilers crawl up the standings, one painful point at a time. Across the league, teams earn on average something over 1.11 points per GP in the Second Bettman Point Era, an average which surged to 1.25 during this recent outbreak of OT affairs. So 1 point a night is the equivalent of hanging on by our fingernails but gradually sliding away. We gotta win some games.

Senators 4, Oilers 2 -- player gradings

2009-03-06T10:27:00.017-07:00

I have offered to assist in David Staples' latest project over at Cult of Hockey, namely to grade the Oilers' players on a game-by-game basis. This is a collective effort, I'm just one member of a team of markers.

The scoring system is as follows: 10, perfect game; 9, extraordinary game; 8, great game; 7, good game; 6, above average game; 5, average game; 4, below average game; 3, bad game; 2, terrible game; 1, trade this player or send him to the minors.
***

It's been my "pleasure" to grade both of the Ottawa games, two of the most disappointing losses of the season for Edmonton. Need I add, regulation losses. I left the building angry and disappointed after the Sens snapped their 12 game road losing streak at our expense in late December, and hoped the Oilers would be chomping at the bit for some revenge last night.

Not so much. The Oil started going backwards right off the opening faceoff, and somehow conspired to send Spezza in alone for an unassisted breakaway goal just a dozen seconds in. That constituted a Senators franchise record for fastest goal, but didn't even match the Oilers' seasonal mark of fastest GA. That one opened the 10-goal floodgate to Buffalo, and while last night didn't disintegrate to that degree, the Oilers never got back in this one either.

While Oilers are, in theory, a better team than Ottawa, there's no doubt which squad was the better on this night. These statistics don't lie:

Final Score: 4-2 OTT
Shots on goal: 32-26 OTT
Shots at goal: 57-43 OTT
Faceoffs: 28-23 OTT
TakeAways: 13-7 OTT
GiveAways: 12-4 EDM

Combining those last two, Ottawa's margin of 25-11 in the turnover battle speaks volumes about which team wanted the puck more, and which protected it better when they had it. Oilers played OK in the physical aspects of the game, matching Ottawa's 26 hits and blocking 15 shots. Ottawa's skill guys had a dominant game and our top guns came up short in a Power vs. Power match-up, while our 2-3-4 lines could only saw off against their underwhelming counterparts.
***

Ladislav Smid - 7: Ladi was the top Oiler to my eye. He's evolving into a commanding presence on the blue, increasingly calm and confident with the puck, and a punishing hitter as Shean Donovan can attest. 4 hits, 3 blocked shots, and contributed to both Oiler goals by drawing the penalty that led to Gagner's PP goal, and then assisting on Sam's second late in the third to extend his point streak to three games (0-4-4). Kept the sheet clean at the defensive end, and was full marks for his +1.

Shawn Horcoff - 3: Won the opening faceoff, and everything went downhill from there. Quickly. Didn't seem to have his hands going at all -- 6-10, 38% on the dot, both of his attempted shots missed the net, and his most creative pass whistled past Kotalik's stick a foot off the ice. Hard to fault him on Spezza's goal, but on Comrie's he 1) lost an offensive zone faceoff, 2) chased the puck for awhile, 3) took the (cheap) delayed penalty on Heatley which allowed Comrie to come off the bench for the 6v5, 4) didn't get the call when he touched the puck in the corner, and then 5) watched helplessly as his man Spezza fired a great feed that Comrie finished off. Later was on the receiving end of a huge collision between Stortini and Volchenkov and went off gingerly. The hard minutes are taking a toll.

Andrew Cogliano - 6: Had his skating legs going better than I've seen from him in awhile. Got a few chances for his efforts but couldn't finish a one of them, including a golden opportunity for a game-changing 3-2 goal off a nice Penner feed that he pretty much whiffed. A rare excellent game on the dot (7-2, 78%).

Patrick O'Sullivan - 5: Played OK on a line with Pouliot and (mostly) Gagner, holding his own in scoring chances (+6/-6) and shots (+10/-9). Unfortunately his first shift on the PK unit went badly, with O'Sullivan's giveaway on a poor clearing pass leading directly to Campoli's game-winner. I guess he fits right in with Oilers' PK.

Ales Kotalik - 4: Didn't stink, but his line got owned, as he was on the ice for all three even-strength goals against. Showed a little bit of chemistry with the other Ales, had 2 of his line's 3 shots, and a couple of hits.

J.F. Jacques - 6: I like what he's bringing, which last night was 9:49 of solid fourth-line grinding. 1 hit, 2 blocked shots, and Oilers outchanced the Sens 4-2 with JFJ on the ice.

Steve Staios - 7: A strong effort. Oilers outshot Ottawa 15-8 with Staios on the ice, outchanced them 10-6, and outscored them 1-0. Attempted 4 shots and blocked 2. Led the charge into the scrum in the final minute when Campoli took liberties with Cogliano, which is worth a point in my book.

Dustin Penner - 5: Not much working offensively just now (0 shots last night, 0 points in his last 8 games). Played a fairly physical game with 4 hits and lots of puck battles deep in Ottawa territory. His low-key personality doesn't translate well to the power game; even when he plays hard, he seems dispassionate.

Fernando Pisani - 6: Gradually returning to form. 3 hits, 2 shots, 1 block, and even at evens. Was on the ice for Ottawa's PP goal.

Dwayne Roloson - 5: Was not the reason Oilers lost the game. Unfortunately, we can't say he was the reason they won it either.

Denis Grebeshkov - 3: A terrible game, right from the brutal backwards pass he made that hopped on Gilbert and sent Spezza in alone. Things just went from bad to worse as he wound up the night outshot +3/-13 and had the whopping -3 to prove it. Made a nice pass to send Gagner in alone on the powerplay, but it was nowhere near enough to atone for his sins. Still hurting?

Jason Strudwick - 5: A decent effort. 2 hits, 1 shot, 1 block, 1 takeaway, 1 (brutal) giveaway. Not a difference-maker.

Sheldon Souray - 6: Solid outing with 4 shots, 1 hit, 1 takeway, and Oilers were rarely in trouble with the SS-SS pairing out there. His shots have an effect even when they don't go in: one softened up an opponent, while another led to the uncontrolled rebound that Gagner turned into an extended video review.

Zack Stortini - 5: What I love about Stortini is that he's just as willing to take a hit as give one. Many hitters like to take the long way to the puck so that they can arrive second and lay the body on the other guy, but Zack values possession of the puck first and foremost. One case in point occurred late in the first when Zack outraced Jason Smith to a loose puck in the corner, absorbed a very heavy hit while protecting the puck, then got back on his feet to crunch Jarkko Ruutu on the continuation, one of a team-leading 5 hits on the night for Zorg in a team-low 9:43 TOI. Did take a rare undisciplined penalty when suckered by Ruutu, although for the life of me why diving is unsportsmanlike and turtling isn't escapes me. I docked Zack one full point for this indiscretion.

Kyle Brodziak - 7: A solid game centring the two Coke machines on the fourth unit, a group which outchanced Ottawa 5-3 when Brodziak was on. 2 shots, 1 hit, 2 takeaways, 3 blocks, and an impressive 6-2, 75% in the circle.

Tom Gilbert - 3: A very tough night. Lined up with Grebeshkov in the shutdown role against Ottawa's first unit, and fared poorly indeed. Shots on goal were 14-2 Ottawa with Tom on the ice at evens, and his -3 was all-too-well-earned.

Marc Pouliot - 6: A very quiet night on the stat sheet (other than an unflattering 0-4, 0% on the dot), but I thought he played a solid, heady game on the right side with Gagner and O'Sullivan.

Ales Hemsky - 3: Didn't get the job done offensively or defensively. Was on the ice for all three even-strength goals against, and while he showed a few flashes offensively, the elite playmaker now has gone 8 games without an assist. Appeared to win a race to negate an icing only to have Heatley outbattle him and touch it up; 8 seconds after the subsequent faceoff, Heatley scored at the other end to seal the deal at 4-1.

Sam Gagner - 6: Tasted blood on his first shift when rocked by Gator, and it may have spurred him into one of his more proactive games as a pro. Scored both goals and appeared to be robbed of a third when he made an incredible shot from an almost impossible angle. Led the team with 5 shots. On the downside, had 2 giveaways, went only 2-5, 29% in the circle (including the draw that led to Heatley's goal), and was sitting in the box for the game winner after taking a dumb penalty 200 feet from his net. He argued the call, but he did grab and rather dangerously spill Bell into the end boards on an over-aggressive forecheck. Every ref in the league will make that call, and it cost us.

Craig MacTavish - 3: I watched a replay of Bruce Boudreau going ballistic on the Washington bench last night, and I thought to myself, where the heck is that on our team? Composure is important I guess, but so is passion, and too many nights our coach looks resigned to his fate. He didn't respond too well to the bad PvP match-up that Cory Clouston employed, didn't switch Grebs and Gilbert off that unit despite all the negative results, and didn't change up Horcoff for Gagner until far too late to have much effect. Sounded discouraged in the post-game scrum, and used the word "they" to describe the Oilers far too often for my liking.

Moving Patty O'Furniture

2009-03-05T13:18:00.029-07:00

When men on the chessboard
Get up and tell you where to go
And you've just had some kind of mushroom
And your mind is moving Lowe :)
Go ask Ales
I think he'll know

("White Rabbit", adapted with apologies to Jefferson Airplane)

Double puns in the header and song lyric to honour two incoming Oilers, Patty O'Sullivan and Ales Kotalik. Whether we're arranging the proverbial deck chairs or placing the chess pieces for the decisive gambit remains to be seen.

Overall I'm happy with the two moves we did make, although still wishing we'd done something on the dot and behind the blueline as well.

Last summer's white knight has turned into a rabbit and disappeared down his hole, with 2 newcomers and one longer-term contract taking his place. With the same second-round draft pick coming and going and otherwise only a fifth given up, essentially it was a 2-for-1. Of course, unless logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead, we can't put 7 guys on the ice or dress a 13th forward ... somebody else has to come out to make room for both. And Coach MacT has to spot them in there wisely.

The incoming guys between them adequately cover most of Cole's skill set. Here's a head-to-head-to-head statistical comparison (2008-09 only) drawn from NHL.com., Behindthenet.com, and Timeonice.com. In the right column I have projected which of the newcomers better addresses the hole left by Cole's loss, where "both" means each guy covers off Cole, and "combined" means it will take the efforts of both together to fill the void. Of particular concern are the categories marked "neither".

Player * Cole **** AK *** POS **
---------------------------------------
Age ****** 30 **** 30 **** 24 ** AK
Cap hit 4.000 * 2.500 * 2.925 ** Combined
Expires* 2009 ** 2009 ** 2011 ** AK

Height * 6'2 *** 6'1 *** 5'11 ** AK
Weight * 205 *** 227 **** 190 ** AK

TOI/GP* 17:04 * 15:14 * 19:25 ** POS
ES TOI* 13:15 * 12:14 * 14:03 ** POS
PP TOI** 2:31 ** 2:58 ** 3:07 ** Both
SH TOI** 1:18 ** 0:52 ** 2:15 ** POS

GP ***** 63 ***** 56 ***** 62 ** Both
G ****** 16 ***** 13 ***** 14 ** Both
A ****** 11 ***** 19 ***** 23 ** Both
Pts **** 27 ***** 32 ***** 37 ** Both
PPG ** 0.43 *** 0.57 *** 0.60 ** Both

ESP **** 20 ***** 14 ***** 28 ** POS
PPP ***** 7 ***** 18 ****** 8 ** AK
SHP ***** 0 ****** 0 ****** 1 ** POS

+- ***** -3 ***** -7 ***** +1 ** POS
PiM **** 63 ***** 28 ***** 16 ** Neither

Shots * 145 **** 153 **** 200 ** Both
MsS **** 53 ***** 39 **** 100 ** POS!
Sh% * 11.0% *** 8.5% *** 7.0% ** Neither

Hits ** 134 ***** 93 ***** 60 ** Combined
BkS **** 33 ***** 13 ***** 29 ** POS
GvA **** 34 ***** 21 ***** 59 ** POS!
TkA **** 41 ***** 17 ***** 31 ** Combined

QualComp +0.01 * -0.04 * -0.03 * Neither
QualTeam +0.09 * -0.07 * -0.11 * Both
ESG/60 ** 0.70 ** 0.48 ** 0.65 * POS
ESP/60 ** 1.32 ** 1.16 ** 1.87 * POS
GF ON/60* 2.18 ** 2.23 ** 2.66 * Both
GA ON/60* 2.33 ** 2.42 ** 2.45 * Both

Corsi/60* +0.8 ** -0.3 ** +9.9 * POS
Sv% ON ** .928 ** .912 ** .920 * Neither
Sh% ON ** 7.8% ** 7.7% ** 7.5% * Both
PDO # ** 1.006 ** .989 ** .995 * Neither

PPG/60 ** 2.01 ** 1.26 ** 0.64 * Neither
PPP/60 ** 2.82 ** 4.19 ** 2.23 * AK
PP+/60 ** 5.24 ** 5.87 ** 4.14 * AK

SH-/60 * -2.36 * (N/A) * -4.78 * Neither

Pen.Drawn * 32 ***** 8 **** 27 * POS
Pen.Taken * 12 ***** 8 ***** 5 * Neither

So it's Kotalik who is the best match for age, experience, size, and contract situation. Surprisingly, both newcomers have outscored Cole this season, and with his big ticket and impending UFA status I'm frankly amazed we got as much for Cole as we did. Clearly Carolina was a target market, as they knew what they had in Erik and realized he was more important to their squad than Justin Williams. I'll be surprised if he isn't re-upped well in advance of June 30, whereas the likelihood of that happening here was vanishly small. It is this aspect which makes this trade a potential "win" from all three perspectives. Oddly, though, unless Carolina chooses not to sign Cole, it is anything but a salary dump for any of the three: Cole is an established big ticket player still in his prime and won't come cheap to Carolina; LA will pay Williams over $2 MM more than they would have O'Sullivan over the next two years; and Edmonton is on the hook for almost $5 MM in salary and $6 MM in cap hit over the next two years instead of having salary walk out the door on July 1. Such is the risk of this deal from an Edmonton perspective, who have added to their young talent pool of Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson, Pouliot but on a much bigger ticket. Indeed, O'Sullivan's contract based on one year of solid boxcar numbers isn't that different from the one Joffrey Lupul signed here in the summer of '06. Such contracts can very easily become albatrosses.

Nobody has said anything about how O'Sullivan's contract was heavily top loaded -- reason?? -- and therefore his actual pay cheque will be well south of his cap hit during his time in Edmonton. Something which would be more attractive to a floor team vs. a ceiling team I would have thought. For all the talk about how Daryl Katz is prepared to eat salaries by burying guys in the minors and so forth, I have yet to see evidence that he's not a careful man with a buck. And to tell you the truth, I don't mind that.

"The Other Ales" is an intriguing wild card as well. Here is a guy with talent, a Big shot, and a reputation for indifference. Suddenly he is traded for the first time in his career, and arrives on his new team to find himself inserted on the first line, with a buddy/budding star with a reputation as a playmaker on the opposite flank. Moreover, he's got 19 games to make an impression, in a playoff drive, and perhaps most importantly, in the dwindling days of an expiring contract. If he can't rise above indifference in that situation and actually make a difference, than that's probably all we need to know about that, and at least have the option of letting him walk. My guess however, is that rather than coming up small, Ales will be ten feet tall. If we see his best and most inspired hockey it's a very possible outcome that Kotalik could be the Oilers' leading goal scorer the rest of the way. Even more importantly, that his arrival might spark Hemsky to find the missing jump in his step. It's the first Ales we need to lead us through the looking glass and into the post season.

The double-edged sword of course is that if Kotalik puts together a Glencross-esque stretch drive, his cost goes up, and Oilers will have to pay him and hope like hell he doesn't lapse into old habits, or let him walk and risk the wrath of the faithful.

Where Cole will be most difficult to replace would appear to be on the defensive side of the puck, especially physically. Erik is well above both new guys in Hits and Blocked Shots, has a fine Takeaway/Giveaway ratio, and some truly excellent numbers in limited ice time on the penalty kill. Then there's the matter of QualComp, where Erik has played both with and against the top half of the roster, whereas both Kotalik and O'Sullivan appear to have been getting the soft. We haven't got two places to hide them, so it'll be interesting to see how MacT copes, and how the newcomers themselves fare under the microscope.

Starting tonight.

*singing* Let's go, Pat-i-o. You too, Ales2.

Post-Lubo goal scoring: a new paradigm? :)

2009-02-19T03:38:00.021-07:00

Of all the numbers that seep into my life, from recreational mathematics to classical astronomy to baseball and hockey statistics, one of my favourite diversions is the field of small number statistics. One can find all sorts of interesting and extreme examples and draw all sorts of bizarre conclusions just for the fun of it. The key is not only sample size, but choosing exactly where to constrain that sample.

Here's an example that is entirely current and factually correct. There are even some grains of meaning to be found therein.

The Oilers have had to change their game since the unfortunate loss of their slick puckmoving defencemen, first Lubomir Visnovsky followed all too quickly by Denis Grebeshkov. Suddenly a defence crew that provided four of the club's top eight scorers was a double amputee in the manner of the Black Knight. Just as suddenly, the onus fell much more squarely on the shoulders of the forwards to light the lamp.

The Oilers have played 7 games since Lubo went down, 6 of them on the road, and have posted an impressive 4-2-1 W-L-L record. The club has scored a creditable 20 goals in those games, even without counting a pair of ersatz shootout "goals". Here is the distribution of goal scorers over that span:

Stortini 3
Souray 3
Penner 3
Hemsky 2
Horcoff 2
Gagner 2
Cole 1
Pouliot 1
Cogliano 1
Brodziak 1
Reddox 1
Nilsson 0
Moreau 0
All D but SS 0

For the love of mike, there's Zack Stortini leading the Oilers in goal scoring. Who knew?

I care more about how the lines are faring as a group, not as much about who is finishing the job. The forward lines have been pretty stable over that period of games, even as the defence has been shuffled. Here's the goal scoring line by line:

1. Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky - 7 goals

2. Nilsson-Gagner-Cole - 3 goals

3. Moreau-Cogliano-Pouliot - 2 goals

4. Reddox-Brodziak-Stortini - 5 goals

So our so-called fourth line has equalled the offensive production of the second and third units combined over this two-week stretch. Moreover, the first of Penner's goals was scored when Dustin was demoted to the fourth line -- assisted by Zack Stortini, come to think of it -- suggesting that over this 4-2-1 stretch the fourth line has equalled the output of the First line, in a helluva lot less ice time.

The underlying numbers -- shots and Corsi data -- don't paint such a rosy picture of the grinders' performance, but shots don't tell the whole tale either. Last year much was made of the "unsustainable" shooting percentages that the Crosstiniaks maintained. Yet this year I look at the same data and there is Zack Stortini leading all non-Schremps with a team Sh% of 12.0% when he's on the ice, and leading all the non-SMacs in individual Sh% at an astonishing 28.6%. 4 goals in 14 shots, but still. As a unit those guys plainly don't waste a lot of shots, they try to bull it to the front of the net and when they succeed in getting it there a one-foot shot has a better than average chance of going in. Or so the small number statistics suggest. :)

Oilers 3, Coyotes 1 -- player ratings

2009-02-17T12:22:00.014-07:00

***
I have offered to assist in David Staples' latest project over at Cult of Hockey, namely to grade the Oilers' players on a game-by-game basis. This is a collective effort, I'm just one member of a team of markers.
The scoring system is as follows: 10, perfect game; 9, extraordinary game; 8, great game; 7, good game; 6, above average game; 5, average game; 4, below average game; 3, bad game; 2, terrible game; 1, trade this player or send him to the minors.

***

Last night scared me as the sort of game the Oilers might be expected to win, and let get away on them. That has happened far too often this season, albeit mostly at home. In Arizona the Oil were up to the task, turning two powerplay goals and some staunch defending into a well-deserved 3-1 victory over the hungry Coyotes. The depleted defence, which had allowed 38+ shots in their previous three games, came up with a solid effort from top to bottom, holding the Desert Dogs to 29 shots including virtually nothing of the second shot variety. Dwayne Roloson, who somehow had delivered 5 standings points in those previous three games by stopping 113 of 118 shots, was again up to the task, stopping every shot but one.

Ladislav Smid - 6: I saw Ladi good in this one. He lugged the puck all night long and seems to quickly have found a chemistry with Gilbert, who can find Smid with an actual pass in his own zone rather than a suicide ring-around. Dennis had the scoring chances at +3/-8 during Ladi's 15 minutes of even-strength ice, but the shot clock was just at +6/-7 and I didn't notice the ice tilting the wrong way when the pair was out there. 1 shot, 1 hit, 2 blocks and nothing negative on the scoresheet. Took another tremendous wallop when clearing the puck from danger late in the third.

Shawn Horcoff - 8: Another quietly excellent game from our #1 centre. His 23:00 TOI led all forwards by over five minutes, finished the night 1-1-2, +1 with 2 shots, 2 takeaways, and 1 block. Split his game-high 26 face-offs 50/50, and actually won the draw very late in the second that ultimately resulted in Phoenix's lone goal. Was also on the ice for all three Oiler goals.

Robert Nilsson - 6: A strong game marred by a bad penalty and his inability to finish. Row-bert has his skating legs again, and his hands and head seem to be coming up to speed right along with them.

Andrew Cogliano - 5: Another nondescript game from the young speedster, who to my eye has his the doldrums the past little while. An uneventful 12:41 with no shots on goal, 2 misses, 1 hit, and an acceptable 4-4, 50% in the circle. Not a difference-maker either way.

Ethan Moreau - 4: A typical high-energy game with 6 attempted shots, 3 shots, 2 hits, and 2 more bonehead penalties 200 feet from Oilers' net. Particularly egregious was the first, an absolutely needless reach-in hook after turning the puck over on a 1-on-5 rush. The hook accomplished nothing, Moreau was headed for a change, but a hook it was, putting the Oilers 2 men down for a harrowing 85 seconds. Credit his teammates for killing it off, but Moreau's dumb play "should" have cost us a goal. Minutes later he was back in the box for a debatable running the goalie penalty, and this time the Coyotes struck for their only goal.

Steve Staios - 7: Has really stepped up into the big minutes role in the absence of Visnovsky and Grebeshkov. His 25:57 last night was second on either team, trailing only his partner Souray. Was on the ice for a team high 11 even-strength scopring chances, just 3 against, and also posted a respectable +3/-0 in just 1:25 of 2nd powerplay unit duty. 1 shot, 1 hit, and 2 blocked shots don't do numerical justice to a hard night in the trenches.

Erik Cole - 6: Played his best game in some time with 4 shots, a hit, 2 takeaways, and some some inspired penalty-killing. Also drew the penalty that resulted in the game-winning PPG. Nonetheless is mired in another extended scoring drought, just 1-1-2 in 14 games since his hat trick in Washington, and pointless in the last 9 outings.

Dustin Penner - 7: This guy is coming a lot closer to earning his $4 MM stipend in my view. Had another strong game with 3 shots, 2 hits, 1 block, led all forwards in scoring chances with +8/-3 at evens. Played a key role on both powerplay goals, bulling to the net to create a rebound for the first and then providing his usual heavy shade for Souray's point blast. I docked him a point for a bad penalty in the third, although I note it was actually in our zone while the other guys had the puck, which is more than we can say about Moreau's infractions.

Dwayne Roloson - 7: A solid night's work, marred only by a weak goal in the dying seconds of the second. Came up big in the first and third, especially with a big-time stop off of Lindstrom in the late going that helped seal the win. Had a strong night handling the puck and, it appeared, communicating with his defence.

Jason Strudwick - 7: His best game as an Oiler, at least as a blueliner. Oilers outchanced the Coyotes 6-4 with Struds on the ice at evens, 2-0 in a brief surprise stint on the powerplay, while holding Phoenix without a chance during 2:25 that Strudwick served on the PK unit. 1 shot on net, 4 hits, and 4 blocks testify to a hard night's work.

Sheldon Souray - 8: Had a great game, leading both teams with 26:35 including, it seemed, all the big minutes. With Horcoff, Staios, and Roli, killed the entire 85-second 3-on-5, much later played a 2:09 shift between Gilbert's penalty and Horcoff's empty netter. In between times, of course, he scored the game-winner on a trademark powerplay rocket that Tellqvist knew nothing about until he heard it hit the chain that connects the netting to the goalpost at a hundred miles an hour. Was physical from the game's first shift, where he roughed up Mueller, to the end where he twice showed Ed Jovanovski who was boss on this night. The only things that kept him from a 9 was a penalty, his inability to clear the puck under very heavy pressure late in the second (it would have been a great play if he had), and coming up empty in his three-for-a-dollar chances to hit the empty net.

Zack Stortini - 6: A solid night's work from Zorg in limited minutes, with 3 official hits in 5:32 and at least one crunching check that was missed by the scorers. Had a brief but successful bout with old rival Todd Fedoruk in which Zack held the upper fist, and to his credit, held it back. Crashed the net hard to create one decent scoring chance.

Theo Peckham - 6: Finished his own bout with my neighbour's buddy Steven Goertzen in a similar manner, in a position to hit a fallen opponent but not actually doing so. I liked how he went to bat for his goaltender there, and how fiercely he defended him generally (2 hits, 1 block), with a surprising +5/-4 on the scoring chance metric. Overcommitted a couple of times but was able to make the play in the prone position at least once. Lots of rough edges in this kid, and lots to like.

Kyle Brodziak - 6: Had a big night in the faceoff circle (11-5, 69%) including the critical last-minute 4v6 draw that ultimately led to Horcoff's empty netter. Strong game on the PK unit, but next to no offence.

Tom Gilbert - 7: A solid night with two assists, an unofficial helper on the third, and a great steal and pass that sent Nilsson in alone in the first. He like Smid was outchanced at evens (+4/-8) but I don't recall too many Grade A chances among those. Defied the law of physics by shooting a puck that was touching the boards directly over the glass for what could have been a killer penalty very late, but stepped out of the box to cause the turnover that led to the empty-netter.

Marc Pouliot - 5: Did he even play? Barely noticed the guy ... again. To be a little more fair, when he's on his game Poo tends to disappear out there, largely by doing a lot of little things right. But it's not a free smorg, he needs to bring a homemade dish to the pot luck. Whatever that is, it's heavily flavoured with vanilla.

Ales Hemsky - 7: Created at evens (+7/-3) and produced on the powerplay with a goal and a primary assist. Seems to be skating better after a poor stretch of games after the All-Star Break. Didn't particularly notice him on the defensive side of the puck, which is probably a good thing. Played just 16:04.

Liam Reddox - 6: Earned a bonus point for one third-period shift in which he nearly scored on a nice rush, then came back with a big shot block. 3 hits in just 7:50, and a solid effort thoughout.

Sam Gagner - 6: A solid night's work with 2 shots, 2 hits, 1 block, and 5-4, 56% on the dot. His line held their own at evens (+5/-3 scoring chances) and created on the PP (+5/-0) in just 2:12).

Attention: Doogie2K

2009-02-13T17:27:00.010-07:00

Overheard on TSN's "That's Hockey": the eloquent and passionate Ray Ferraro's comment on the Plekanec "hit", and the seeming agreement from the vacuous host until the stunning non sequitur at the end which prompted me to actually transcribe and post this. I love PVRs, cuz when you can't believe your ears sometimes, you can go back and listen again and again until you do believe 'em. :D
***

Gino Reda: ... Tomas Plekanec got a two game suspension for what he did to Denis Grebshkov when he brought him down with that slewfoot. You've got to crack down on that kind of stuff.

Ray Ferraro: Two games is not enough for this play. This is a malicious play by Plekanec here. He's below the goal line, there's only one place that Grebeshkov is going to go. If Plekanenc wants to get in on the forecheck, go make body contact! He kicks his feet out, it's a dangerous play, this suspension should be more harsh in my opinion. Grebeshkov has a high ankle sprain, they're saying two weeks which would be very fortunate for the Oilers if he's back that quickly. That to me is a malicious play. Guy Carbonneau called it a hockey hit; do you think he would call it a hockey hit if that was Mike Komisarek going in like that? I don't think so.

Gino: There's nothing hockey hit about a slewfoot.

Ray: It's one of the game's most dirty plays.

Gino: It's a great exciting play, you just gotta make it a little safer.

(Ferraro does a double take, keeps his cool and grins weirdly at the camera, Gino doesn't even notice anything out of the ordinary. Fade to commercial.)

Red Wings 8, Oilers 3 -- player gradings

2009-02-07T20:40:00.004-07:00

No, Craig, they didn't get 10 this time. Then again, neither did you.

***

This was one of those games where I looked at the schedule and pretty much got out my pen to write in “Loss”. The schedule maker has once again done the Oilers no favours, with not just another three-in-four-days run, but the most compressed possible version of that: Thursday night - Saturday afternoon - Sunday afternoon. Detroit won their last to end a 5-game losing streak, and weren’t about to let their foot off the gas against a tired, hurting, and frankly inferior opponent.

That said it would have been nice if the Oilers had showed up for the first period.

Ladislav Smid – 3: Was floating around as if he was lost out there at times, which he probably was given Craig MacTavish had him playing with Jason Strudwick at times, Theo Peckham at times, and a couple of shifts on LW just for auld lang syne. I thought MacT had learned that lesson. Did record a rare assist but still ended up -2 on the day.

Robert Nilsson – 5: Made one great rush to set up Pouliot’s goal that temporarily closed the gap to 6-3, otherwise didn’t get much done.

Andrew Cogliano – 5: Wasn’t on the ice for any goals, either for or against. Not much of anything happened with Cogs out there in fact, just 1 scoring opportunity for the Oilers in 16 minutes work including 2:48 on the PP.

Ethan Moreau – 6: Same as his linemate Cogs, scoreless hockey in almost a full period’s work (19:40), including a clean sheet in over 4:00 on the PK. 3 shots, 2 hits, and made Zetterberg pay for a late whack at Roli. One of the few Oilers who wanted to compete.

Steve Staios – 5: No worries about Steve’s compete level. 4 blocked shots.

Erik Cole – 4: Fought the puck all afternoon. Had a shift on LW early (with Pouliot and Stortini) and sure enough the puck wound up in our net. I thought MacT had learned that lesson early in the season.

Dustin Penner – 5: A goal, 3 shots, and +6/-5 in even strength scoring chances. A decent effort.

Dwayne Roloson – 2: I was shocked he got the start, given the tight schedule and the fact that tomorrow’s game against a divisional/playoff race rival seems both more winnable and more important. Roli had a terrible time, taking a selfish penalty in the first minute and then was unable to come up with the save that would kill it off. Never came up with any saves in fact. In last two starts against Detroit has been torched for 8 goals against in just 30 minutes work.

Denis Grebeshkov – 6: The best of a bad lot of Oilers defencemen. Had a fine third period (+3) which negated some of the bad stuff that happened earlier (2 EV GA, 2 PP GA). Was soft on Datsyuk on the 5-0 goal, but also made some good defensive plays. +10/-8 in EV scoring chances, leading the team in both categories. High event game.

Jeff Deslauriers – 5: Looked great compared to Roli, but at the end of the day allowed 3 goals on 19 shots over 40 minutes. That’s 4.50, .842 for those keeping score at home. Still, looked aggressive and confident, a nice bounce back from the debacle against Buffalo. Gives MacT something to think about for tomorrow.

Jason Strudwick – 3: A tough afternoon. +1/-6 in EV scoring chances, -2 on the scoreboard, no hits or blocked shots. Seemed a step behind. Had the worst Corsi rating on the team at -10.

Sheldon Souray – 5: A team-leading 22:28 including over 9 minutes on special teams, and was only on for Leino’s 8-3 goal in garbage time. 3 shots, 3 hits. Oilers only generated 1 chance on 3 powerplays though.

Zack Stortini – 6: A rare high-event game, with 1-1-2, but on the ice for 3 goals against. Was only slightly culpable on Lebda’s goal when he let Lebda go to Pouliot and picked up the trailer, and truly unlucky when he came on on a line change while Samuelsson was already on his breakaway that made it 7-3. Co-led the team with 3 hits and impressed with a diving shot block followed by a second dive to clear the zone with the score 8-3. Doesn’t know the meaning of quit, which kind of stood out today.

Theo Peckham – 2: Didn’t look like an NHL defenceman. Was badly burned on Cleary’s goal when he got sucked into chasing Zetterberg off the draw and abandoned his post for Cleary to walk into. Why Peckham was on for a defensive zone faceoff against Datsyuk and Zetterberg is anybody’s guess. -2 in just 7:25, now is -4 on the season in under 20 minutes work. If this is our most NHL-ready blueliner on the farm, uh oh.

Kyle Brodziak – 4: Weird game. 3 shots, 3 blocks, but lost the draw on Cleary’s goal, lost his position on Hossa’s PP marker, and lost the puck on Datsyuk’s marker when he froze in the neutral zone allowing Zetterberg to pick his pocket. Just 7-10, 41% in the circle on a day the Oil got burned on faceoffs, with Detroit scoring soon after draws in the offensive zone, defensive zone, and centre ice.

Tom Gilbert – 6: Decent performance, esp. given the bad back. +9/-5 by the scoring chance metric, best on the squad, although not nearly so successful on the PK. 3 hits.

Marc Pouliot – 5: A high event game, despite playing 3 minutes less than any other forward. Played just 2:20 in the third but posted 1-1-2 and an even rating, as he was also on for 2 goals against in that brief time. Scored on his only shot, a very nice shelf job on Nilsson’s feed, but didn’t really stand out with skating or physical play. Was badly burned by Lebda on the 2-0 goal. His grip on an NHL job may be slipping.

Ales Hemsky – 3: A third consecutive poor game for Ales, who was outchanced badly again, +3/-8 (+7/-24 this week). Got nothing going offensively including “his” powerplay which sputtered badly. Had a well deserved -2 for his efforts.

Liam Reddox – 3: Got burned on both Detroit PP goals, allowing Rafalski to walk off the point for the opening goal and was also out of position for Hossa’s game winner. Finished the night with a terrible clearing pass that led to Leino’s 8-3 goal.

Sam Gagner – 4: Led Oilers forwards in TOI for the second time this week but didn’t have anything to show for it with just 1 shot. Was Oilers’ best in the faceoff circle at a modest 9-8, 53%. Docked a full mark for his absolutely brutal giveaway to Samuelsson that led directly to the unassisted 7-3 goal. Oilers were making a line change at the time, and the cross-ice pass was a poor decision, poorly executed.

Craig MacTavish – 1: Likely the coach’s worst game of the season. Questionable decisions abounded – Roloson starting, Peckham out for a D-zone draw against Datsyuk and Zetterberg, Smid on LW, Cole on LW. His team wasn’t ready to play, but given these examples all occurred in the first period, one could argue MacT wasn’t ready either.

Black Hawks 3, Oilers 1 -- player gradings

2009-02-04T15:16:00.011-07:00

***

I had the pleasure of attending the game last night, courtesy a good friend who was unable to go. Unfortunately I got a little lost trying to find his place way the heck and gone in Outer Riverbend (Beyond the ‘Bend?). Some genius has seen fit to name all the streets in the neighbourhood with the same letter, so that all the signs look the same (“Hxxxxx", except in smaller font). It seems I missed the intersection of Hell and Handbasket and proceeded down a logarithmic spiral to Howthehelldidiwinduphere Close.

End result was we missed the first two or three minutes, including The goal. We arrived just in time to stand behind the Zamboni section to see the massive Zack Stortini hit on Brian Campbell and subsequent scrap with Matt Walker. But we only heard the roar for Moreau’s fluke goal just 10 seconds later as we wound our way up to Row 34. Very nice seats in the corner of the Oilers’ “offensive” zone – the Hawks had more shots (18) in their one period coming my way than the Oil did in two (7 +8).

The Chicagos were who we thought they were. They out skated and out skilled the Oilers for 50 minutes, by which time the scoreboard stood at 3-1 and the shot clock at 40-16. Hawks laid back a little in the last 10 as Oilers attempted to come on, but Cristobal Huet was more than up to the task. Certainly the outcome was only in doubt during the 18 minutes that the Oilers somehow held the lead against the torrent of play.

In a typically astute comment Craig MacTavish mentioned the speed of the Hawks checkers, who were all over the Oilers, especially in our zone. In this way this game resembled the 4-0 loss in Detroit, the miraculous 3-2 win in San Jose, and indeed the early-season 3-0 whitewash in Chicago. The Hawks are capable of puck pressure of the same quality as the elite squads of the Western Conference. The Oilers are nowhere close.
***

Let's turn our attention to individual player gradings, which as usual are cobbled together from sporadic observations and statistical bric-a-brac:

Ladislav Smid – 5: Solid, unspectacular. I loved the way he challenged Adam Burish, then Colin Fraser, then Burish again in the aftermath of a Burish whack to Roli’s glove.

Shawn Horcoff – 4: A very tough night for our #1 C, along with his entire unit of Hemsky, Nilsson, Grebeshkov and Visnovsky. (Especially Visnovsky … sigh) The unit collectively had 5 shots and 10 giveaways, having a great deal of difficulty getting the puck out of their own end, and some of that goes on the centre. Did post a credible 14-8, 64% in the circle, but that didn’t convert into actual puck possession (at least, not for long). Forced two of Cristobal Huet’s best saves in a night’s work that was tougher than 21 shots suggest. After being stoned on his breakaway, made a great recovery and centring pass for a second chance that Hemsky couldn’t convert. Was himself surprised by Gilbert’s great behind-the-back pass that slid harmlessly through his feet with the yawning four by six beckoning. Definitely is fighting the puck.

Robert Nilsson – 3: Virtually invisible. His only official stats for the night were 13:58 TOI, 3 giveaways, and 1 lost faceoff. No anecdotes of his play that I remember, but this MacT quote applies to Row-bert as well as anybody: “What we needed to do was pound the puck out. We kept trying to overhandle it and ended up turning it over at the contact point. It’s tough to exhibit intensity in the defensive zone and we spent a period of time there. [Ed: that would be the second period. And most of the first.] Offensively we were small and slow.”

Andrew Cogliano – 4: Another guy who is fighting the puck. Didn’t have a single shot on net, and passed up a couple of shooting lanes for ill-advised passes. Went 0-8, 0% in the faceoff circle, which is a bad night even for Andrew. His linemate Marc Pouliot went 2-0, but MacT seems to prefer Cogliano for whatever reason, even choosing Andrew for a defensive RW zone draw which theoretically was Poo’s strong side. Predictably -– and I did predict it -- Cogs lost the draw.

Ethan Moreau – 4: I saw the replay later of the incredibly flukey goal he scored, in which the puck bounced off the heads of two different Hawks and into the net. Like Horcoff and others, I’m probably giving him one higher grade than his game deserves just for his hustle, but as is usual with Ethan that “bull in a china shop” energy is counterproductive as often as not. Took a rockhead interference penalty at the far end that resulted in the Hawks’ only powerplay of the night, and ultimately the tying goal. Then was directly responsible -– what David Staples calls the Primary Error -- for the winner when his mistimed block turned into a fadeaway slide as Bolland stepped past him and let fire unimpeded from the slot. That’s the second time that’s happened to Moreau in a couple of weeks, and both times I thought his execution was technically incompetent in that he was sliding away from the direction the shooter was moving, thus taking himself completely out of the play. We used to teach this in Pee Wee (Tier 5).

Ryan Potulny – 6: A passing grade. His line with Cole and Gagner generated a few dangerous opportunities. I liked his play away from the puck, esp. his change of pace. Potulny got himself wide open at the edge of the crease for a pass from Cole that came about a second and a half too late; another time got himself loose in the high slot for another pass that never came. Made a fine one-handed pass out to Gagner for a gold-plated opportunity early in the second. 2 shots, a team-leading 2 takeaways.

Steve Staios – 4: Another guy awarded a point for effort, but that did not translate into results. 4 shots at net, but the best opportunity, set up by a fine Cogliano dangle, fluttered harmlessly high and wide before bellyflopping into the end boards with a barely-audible splat. Was unable to clear the crease on either of Chicago’s first two goals, one on the PP and one at even strength. On Bolland’s game winner he and his check formed a perfect screen of Roli even as his doppelganger Moreau took absolutely nothing of the shooter. 3 hits, all kinds of try, but even more come-up-short.

Erik Cole – 6: 4 hits on a night Oilers outhit their opponent 27-17. Erik’s shot off the post was probably the best of several Oiler chances to open up a 2-0 lead, which would have been huge. Likes to carry the puck, isn’t always aware of his linemates, and gets ahead of the play at times, all of which point to why he wasn’t a good fit with Hemsky.

Dustin Penner – 6: A fairly solid game from the big man in an unfamiliar position, playing with the slugs. Took awhile to adapt to the strictly N-S game his linemates prefer, in the early stages making a low-percentage cross-ice pass through the neutral zone when the dump-in was the play. In the zone though, all three like to simply bull the puck towards the net, which they did frequently and effectively. Got stronger as the night went on.

Dwayne Roloson – 7: Let’s start with the negatives: didn’t cover enough net on two long screened shots, let in a flat-out weak third goal (the other Primary Error in my books), had trouble with rebound control, and suffered another puckhandling miscommunication with Gilbert that led to a minute of extended pressure. Fact is Roli was under pressure from the drop of the puck right through that third goal which sealed the deal midway in the third. He battled hard, and won more than his share of them with some fine stops. Was not the reason Oilers lost this game, was the reason the score stayed respectable. Could have stolen a point or even two if his counterpart wasn’t equally sharp.

Denis Grebeshkov – 5: Let’s start with the positives this time: Grebs is a beautiful skater, especially laterally where his fluid movements summon images of Paul Coffey or Nicklas Lidstrom. Unfortunately last night required more backward skating than forward as his unit was constantly flummoxed in its own zone. Grebeshkov actually had the best Corsi number of the group, an embarrassing -13. Made one outstanding give-and-go rush on a third period PP that could easily have resulted in the tying goal.

Sheldon Souray – 6: A solid night’s work with a few mistakes sprinkled in, pretty typical for this proactive defender. 7 attempted shots, 3 giveaways, a takeaway, a blocked shot, and 2 hits, including one beauty where he stepped up and rocked Bolland seconds after Wisniewski had leveled Gagner with a hard shot. A team doesn’t always need to be initiating the physical stuff, but it sure in heck better be ready to respond, and Souray picked his spot perfectly on this occasion.

Zack Stortini – 7: Am tempted to give him even more, as he played his role almost to perfection. It is a limited role, however, where “perfect” is maybe only worth 8 points unless there’s bonus goals being scored. I know I’ll take grief for this, but to my eye Zorg was Oilers’ best skater (don’t read that literally) on this night. His line was by far the Oilers best, consistently jamming up the Hawks deep in their own zone and bringing their bodies with them. With the puck Zack is not so much a N-S player as a N player, always moving the biscuit ever deeper into opposing territory and to the end boards. Did make two fine centring passes, one of which resulted in a good shot by Penner. By Dennis’s scoring chance metric the Oilers had 6 chances to score when Zorg was on the ice, and 0 (zero) against. Played 10:45, least of the 18 skaters by a narrower margin than usual, and led the team with 5 hits, including one wallop of Campbell that led to a subsequent dust-up with Walker. Was on the receiving end of one big hit and had the discipline not to retaliate, but after a Chicago penalty on the continuation waded into the post-whistle scrum chin-first. Said chin was wagging you may be sure, giving the Hawks every opportunity to take a second minor without any fear of a bad one on the Oil. If only Ethan Moreau could learn stuff like this.

Kyle Brodziak – 6: Unlucky to post a -1 on a night when the scoring chances with Kyle on the ice were 7 for and 1 against. His line had the only three positive Corsi numbers on the entire team, with Brodziak and Stortini leading the way at +4. Took the puck to the net with 6 attempted shots. Was also on the ice for Chicago’s PP goal, so the results did not match the performance for the most part.

Lubomir Visnovsky – 4: Oilers needed his slick puck movement on this night, but really had trouble getting going, and when he did was still likely to make the dreaded drop pass to nobody. Lost a few battles along the boards, including the unfortunate contact with Bolland that will put Lubo on the shelf for a few weeks. The Oilers will be very hard-pressed to replace a guy who has had many more good nights than bad.

Tom Gilbert – 5: I thought he was getting owned physically for a substantial part of the game, though he did bring some nice skill plays and was on the ice for a team high 10 scoring chances for, just 7 against. Showed his lack of experience when he pulled up and didn’t take the net off on a second-period tumble into his own crease where a whistle would have been both helpful and unpenalized.

Marc Pouliot – 4: Has those moments where the talent shines through, like the second period manoeuvre where he turned sharply and against the flow into open ice to shake some heavy forechecking pressure, then air-mailed a perfect breakout pass onto Cogliano’s tape. Effortless, first-round talent. But didn’t show it often enough on this, as many nights. In just 12:45 co-led the team with 3 GV, with none of his three attempted shots actually getting through to the goalies. Oilers were outchanced 5-2 and outshot 9-2 with Poo on the ice.

Ales Hemsky – 4: Probably a generous marking giving respect for the nights Ales has led the way in a positive sense. On this night his arrows were all pointing in the wrong direction, as he had a team worst +3/-12 scoring chances and dreadful Corsi of -21 (tied with Horcoff in both cases). Was on the ice and partly responsible for Havlat’s backbreaking 3-1 goal. Ales did dangle effectively at times, threading a great pass through to Horcoff for one breakaway and then somehow disappearing behind a sleep-walking Hawks unit for another. Not often one sees the trailing team get a breakaway with the goalie on the bench. Alas, Ales missed the net, and generally missed the mark all night. Getting cranked by Keith and especially Byfuglien early in the game did not help.

Sam Gagner – 6: A decent first game back, in which his line didn’t carry the play but generated their share of chances (+6/-3 with Gags on the ice). Had one pointblank shot but couldn’t solve Huet, and made a couple of slick passes for others. Decent in the circle at 5-2, 71%. Surprisingly, led all Oiler forwards in TOI with 19:45.

Hawks at Oilers backstory

2009-02-03T17:32:00.006-07:00

Am going to the game tonight, yahoo! Looking forward to seeing the Hawks, who rank up there with fellow Original Six revival act Boston and Washington as my favourite teams to watch. They also have the best unis in the league, be they the white, the red or the alternate black. Classic.

The Hawks are an extremely good even strength team. The club has 15 regulars with a Corsi/60 rating of +8 or higher (Oilers have 2, Hemsky and Penner). They have outshot their opposition by 132, and have done so with excellent efficiency numbers: a team Sh% of 8.2% and a Sv% of .931 for an excellent “PDO number” of 1.013. That’s quality and quantity, resulting in an outscoring machine (97-73 at even strength).

I knew this was a young club, but I didn’t realize how young until having a good look at their stats this morning. They have all kinds of experience between the pipes, but among the club’s 17 scorers just Brian Campbell (29), Martin Havlat and Patrick Sharp (both 27) are older than 25. The Hawks' young blueline is something to behold: the pairing of Duncan Keith (pictured; already +26 on top of last year’s +30) and Brent Seabrook (+15) is solid enough to warrant serious consideration as a tandem for the Vancouver Olympic team. Campbell and Cam Barker bring skating and skill, most often deployed with the Kane-Toews-Sharp trio. They have an embarrassment of riches of depth guys that currently sees 25-year-old Aaron Johnson in the pressbox, sitting on his 172 NHL GP, not to mention his +18 in just 26 GP with this talented Hawks squad.

Hawks also have a depth of young forwards far beyond the hyped Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, who have been living up to said hype by being, at age 20, the top two scorers on the club. This year they have another Calder candidate, Kris Versteeg, as well as developing youngsters David Bolland, Andrew Ladd, Troy Brouwer, and Dustin “Joe Bftsplk” Byfuglien, all of whom look mighty fine from this distance. I’m looking forward to seeing them up close.

Also looking forward to seeing the Oilers. I hope.

More after the game, I’m grading it for David Staples’ project. For now I’m running out the door to collect my tickets in the far corner of town.

To be continued?

2009-01-30T15:56:00.009-07:00

A few discussion points on tonight's Wild soiree:

Can't help but wonder if Derek Boogaard might have Sheldon Souray in his sights. Last time out Sheldon decked Craig Weller with a very solid left -- too solid, according to some who noticed Souray was wearing a hard plastic wrist guard. He wears it legitimately to protect his bionic wrist, but it should be off limits as a weapon. Watched the incident a few times and never did draw a conclusion whether it was used as such. Weller is still out with concussion. Look at the shocked expressions of the Oilers on the bench surveying the aftermath of that beatdown.

Haven't heard of any stupid Bertuzzi-like comments emanating from the Wild, but I wouldn't be too surprised if the Boogey Man came calling. I don't doubt Souray might answer Boogaard's call, and he might have as good a chance against the monster as anybody; he's as tough a player as has worn Oiler silks in quite some time. I don't like the potential trade-off, or consequences, but there are times when the tough ones need to account for themselves, or be taken into account. I attended and remember well the "Bryan Marchment Game" where the former Oilers' hardrock defenceman, now a Shark, accepted the challenge of "Big Zhawrzh" Laraque after he took out Doug Weight's knee in a previous game. Marchment lost the fight (a little too quickly, I thought), but he gained the respect of the Oilers and even of this observer for answering the bell. Didn't hurt his teammates morale any, either. Cheap shot artist he was, but Matt Cooke he wasn't.
***

In a not-unrelated development, it sounds like Steve MacIntyre is in tonight, and Zack Stortini out. Neither has dropped the gloves since their return from injury, which is somewhat significant in that both injuries came during fights. Tough break for Zorg who was one of approximately 20 Oilers who struggled against Buffalo. In his first game back from a leg injury, he didn't exactly have the wheels going and showed a little rust by making a couple of rare bad decisions. And like the team as a whole, every mistake wound up in the net.
***

Craig MacTavish's proposed experiment with Tom Gilbert up front on the PP is a little different. It's not often one sees three full-fledged defencemen on the PP; I know Jacques Martin used to fool around with Zdeno Chara in the low slot from time to time, but I believe Alfie played the point so they were just kind of switching positions. Other teams have tried a similar tactic but not for long. Last team I remember who used three D on a regular basis, and about the only one who used the swing man in a skill role was the Winnipeg Jets in the early 90s. They had traded Dale Hawerchuk for Phil Housley, and with a surfeit of offensive blueliners (Fredrik Olausson, Teppo Numminen, Randy Carlyle, Moe Mantha) to man the points, Housley was regularly deployed up front, where he scored 12 and 11 ppg his first two seasons. A precocious offensive talent, Housley had played some centre early in his career in Buffalo (which also shows up in his powerplay goals) before maturing into a full-time blueliner. But for the Jets he went up front on the PP.

It worked in that the Jets had an above-average powerplay those two seasons, but it didn't in that their back-heavy talent distribution resulted in an unbalanced team with a losing record.
***

Peculiar comments from MacT in today's Edmonton Journal about Marc Pouliot:

"I don't like Pouliot at centre. Faceoffs are an issue, the added positional responsibility can be an issue. (Potulny) is an average skater, but he's got good hands and a real head for the game, from what I've seen."

It's hard not to read part of that as a thinly-veiled criticism of Pouliot's head for the game. But in response to the specific criticism, I would point out that Pouliot's faceoff percentage of 47.6 is less than great, it's fully 10 percentage points better than that of Andrew Cogliano (37.5). So Cogs must have a big edge in "positional responsibility". I do know Pouliot has a pretty good record as a low event player regardless of whether he's playing centre or wing, currently ranking fourth among Oiler forwards at 2.30 GA ON/60, while Cogliano is well down the charts at 2.73. As for Potulny, I guess we'll find out.

Two things I'm pretty sure about are that Coach MacTavish has a v-e-r-y good understanding of what a 3C's positional responsibility is; and that he's pretty ticked to not have a veteran to deploy in that important role.
***

Big game tonight against a divisional rival that is exactly tied in the standings. GOILERS!

A Not-So-Perfect 10

2009-01-28T16:29:00.018-07:00

Like this photoshopped image of Bo Derek, the starlet of the 1979 movie "10" who has apparently made a few enemies during her Bush-loving years, it wasn't pretty. The shutout was gone in 10 seconds, the starting goalie gone after 10 minutes, and any shred of dignity long gone by the time Thomas Vanek and the Buffalo Sabres posted their 10th goal on a game-ending Oiler "powerplay".

The Sportsnet guys told us it was the most goals the Oilers had given up in a home game since allowing 9 to Chicago last month. Consulting my Grade One arithmetic text, I discovered that 10 is actually more than 9. It even looks bigger, having twice as many digits, which seems, uh, significant. I suspect I wasn't the only Oiler fan who wondered when was the last time the Oil got lit up for double digits in their own barn.

Later on somebody mentioned it was just the second time in the three decades since Bo Derek enjoyed her 10 minutes of fame and the Oilers entered the NHL that they've been double-digitized on home ice. I remember the game the record was set. It occurred on February 8, 1981, a 10-4 shellacking by the Calgary Flames in the second ever meeting of the Battle of Alberta rivals here in the capital. Here are the gory details: note the 10th goal was scored even later than last night's, and the fact that Oilers actually outshot the Flames 46-22, with both Oiler goalies -- including Ed Mio, pictured above -- getting shelled. That must have been the night we started referring to Gary Edwards' 5-hole as the 10-hole.

Then there was the 10-8 loss to the Kings in Game 1 in 1982, which may have been overlooked cuz it was a playoff game. That one was a lot harder to swallow than the other two, I can tell you; the tenth goal was an empty netter for goodness sake. How can you get 8 goals and lose? Whereas last night there was no question we were going to lose after about 10 seconds.

It's axiomatic in baseball that every season before a pitch is thrown in anger you can write in 54 wins and 54 losses, and it's how you do in the other 54 that tell the tale. Last night was one of those 54 losses; the Oilers didn't merely write it in, they mailed it in. The other pitcher brought his best stuff, ours didn't, our bullpen got laid to waste while our fielders kicked the ball all over the yard. It was a Loss, but one so resoundingly well earned I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.

As MacT and others have pointed out, it's how the team responds that is important. Within the game, they responded horribly, even uncompetitively, as can be seen in a hit count that went from 8 in the first period to 2 to 1. So now it's put up or shut up time, just at the right time to take on the Wild. If Oilers put up another passive effort on Friday, then I'm officially Worried.

It was also reported that last night's 8-goal defeat was The Worst home loss in franchise history. Not quite true, since the franchise extends back to the World Hockey Association whether its current stewards want to admit that Fact or not.

I remember that one too (or at least, one of them). I bought a walk-up seat one February night in 1977 to watch the delightful line of Anders Hedberg, Ulf Nilsson and Bobby Hull absolutely tear the Oilers limb from limb, with Hedberg connecting for four goals in an 11-1 Jets throttling. Some defenceman named Perry Miller also scored four that night, a WHA record. By fluke it was the exact same night that Ian Turnbull set the NHL record for defencemen by scoring five goals for Toronto. Not that that made Oiler fans feel any better.

Then there was the time in 1978-79 where the loss wasn't quite so severe on the scoreboard, but was as bad as could be otherwise. The New England Whalers came in for one of the Rebel League's trademark two-game series, and my friend and season ticket mate bet an arch enemy of his $100 (which was real money back then) that the Oilers would score more goals in the two games. Well on Friday the Oil had their way with the visitors, with Gretzky & Co. running to an 8-2 laugher. On Saturday my friend couldn't leave well enough alone, phoned his buddy and really rubbed it in, piled it on big time. So on Sunday I get extra tickets and take my dad to the rematch, saying "you've got to see this Wayne Gretzky, he's unreal". Well wouldn't you know but the Oil got blown out 7-0. Just a brutal game, from Gretzky right through the water boy. The WHAlers called off the dogs in the third with the score 6-0, but just before the game wound to its inevitable shutout conclusion, some fourth-liner got a cheap one from a bad angle to win the total-goal series that nobody even realized was happening. Must have been 250 fans left in the building, including my dad and me and the other diehards who never leave no matter what. I looked over at my poor friend sitting a few sections away, and he was simultaneously shaking his head and holding it in his hands, in absolute despair.

Conclusion: Some blowout losses are tougher to take than others. Let's just take this one with a giggle and move on.

WorkHorc

2009-01-27T14:50:00.007-07:00

Break time is over, for the NHL and for me. Been a little quiet here on Oil Droppings the last couple of weeks, I went out of town for a few days and hit the doldrums on my return. I have been writing some, just not here. In particular, I've been helping out with Dennis's Scoring Chance project, on which I wrote a series of guest pieces over at MC79hockey. Lots of interesting stuff for Oiler fans in there; Dennis, with help from Vic and Scott, has compiled a ton of raw data on Our Heroes. My contribution was to parse by the familiar per-60 metric to provide another shade of context, and draw a few preliminary conclusions.

One of those conclusions was inescapable: Shawn Horcoff is an absolute horse. Horcoff is my favourite Oiler, but I don't write about him often because most (not all) in the part of the Oilogosphere I inhabit, appreciate him for the horse that he is. Still, the "new statistics" allow us to take the measure of a man in a much broader sense than was possible in the past. And the measure of Shawn Horcoff is that he is one hell of a hockey player.

My favourite not-that-new statistic is time on ice, something I clamoured for in vain throughout the 1980s. It was and remains a very good measure of a player's worth to his coach, to his team, and within the NHL, more reliable in its way than any production statistic or salary valuation. As a comparable it needs be applied with only the broadest brush, F v F, D v D, G v G. Accordingly all of the following is a discussion of forwards only.

Let's start with TOI for the top 6 Oiler forwards as at the break, expressed as a gross number and per game:

---------- T.O.I. - ---------- TOI/G

Horcoff ** 995:23 * Horcoff ** 21:38
Cole ***** 773:41 * Hemsky *** 18:43
Penner *** 726:41 * Cole ***** 16:49
Gagner *** 711:34 * Gagner *** 16:32
Moreau *** 708:51 * Penner *** 16:30
Cogliano * 706:53 * Moreau *** 15:45

It is a very high workload indeed: Horc currently ranks 9th among NHL forwards in TOI; 8th in TOI/G. That left-hand column is astonishing: Horc has played over 200 minutes more than any teammate, the largest such margin anywhere in the league. Neither Kovalchuk nor Iginla nor Koivu nor Ovechkin can boast such a spread. (Not that Shawn is one to boast.)

On a per-game basis, Hemsky enters the picture, his 10 lost games ameliorated. Ales plays nearly as much time at evens, almost half a minute more on the PP, but doesn't kill penalties at all. Whereas Horcoff eats up major minutes on all three units:

---------- EV TOI + ---------- PP TOI + ---------- SH TOI

Horcoff ** 656:02 * Horcoff ** 186:40 * Horcoff ** 152:41
Cole ***** 602:19 * Hemsky *** 160:23 * Brodziak * 125:03
Moreau *** 582:44 * Gagner *** 128:16 * Moreau *** 117:52
Gagner *** 566:24 * Penner *** 128:06 * Cole ****** 47:28
Cogliano * 557:50 * Cole ***** 123:54 * Cogliano ** 44:40
Penner *** 556:49 * Cogliano * 104:23 * Penner **** 41:46

Only one other forward in the league, Mikko Koivu, leads his team in ice time in all three manpower situations (although one of tonight's opponents, Buffalo's Derek Roy, comes close).

Questions have been raised as to whether Horcoff should be handling such a load on both special teams as well as the Power-vs-Power role as the first line centre, especially as he struggles with an aching back (from carrying the team?). Make no mistake, that load is exceptional:

Player --- SH/G + PP/G = ST/G
-----------------------------
Horcoff ** 3:19 + 4:03 = 7:22
Ovechkin * 1:23 + 5:39 = 7:02
Malkin *** 1:22 + 5:39 = 7:01
Morrow *** 1:55 + 4:57 = 6:52
M.Koivu*** 2:47 + 3:59 = 6:46
D.Roy **** 2:39 + 4:02 = 6:41
Stastny ** 2:22 + 4:18 = 6:40
Pominville 2:42 + 3:56 = 6:38
M.Richards 3:23 + 3:13 = 6:36
Alfredsson 2:09 + 4:25 = 6:34
J.Staal ** 3:37 + 2:51 = 6:28
Marleau ** 2:23 + 4:00 = 6:23
B.Richards 2:09 + 4:13 = 6:22
Semin **** 1:58 + 4:23 = 6:21
Crosby *** 0:59 + 5:21 = 6:20
St.Louis * 1:44 + 4:33 = 6:17
Drury **** 2:39 + 3:33 = 6:12
Modano *** 1:57 + 4:10 = 6:07
Nash ***** 2:13 + 3:50 = 6:07
Kovalev ** 1:45 + 4:17 = 6:02

I included the entire list of 20 guys in the league (I think I found them all) who log as many as 6 ST minutes a game, because it's quite a group of comparables. Who do their coaches rely on most? Guys one would expect for the most part, with a couple of surprises (to me) like Pominville, Semin, and Staal the Youngest. But there's no bigger surprise than to see Shawn Horcoff leading the pack by a substantial 0:20 per game. Wow.

Horcoff is the only veteran centre on a club with four pivots under the age of 25 who have yet to figure out which of them is playing wing, let alone fully step into a tough minutes role. Pouliot, Cogliano and Gagner, first rounders all, are certainly developing, but they are a long ways from catching the 99th-overall selection (in '98!) who at 30 continues to grow and mature his game.

Some have questioned whether Horcoff might be overworked on special teams, and should be saved for even strength situations, where there can be no question about his ability to handle the load. Of the dozen Oiler forwards who have suited up for 20+ GP, Horcoff ranks first in QualComp at +0.07, third (behind Penner and Hemsky) in GF ON/60 at 2.87 and third, barely behind Pouliot and Gagner, in GA/60 at 2.14. The former probably speaks to extra duties such as own-zone faceoffs that he garners while Hemsky and Penner stay on the bench; whereas the latter is a very promising sign that the young guys in the protected minutes are learning their lessons well. Make no mistake, they are learning from a master of the two-way art.

The net result of quality play and quantity ice time is that Horcoff leads the Oil at +8. He also has the highest shot differential on the team at +341/-296 = +45, and the biggest scoring chance differential at +195/-169 = +26. This despite the fact that he started in his own zone a staggering 246 times, fully 45% of the team's defensive zone faceoffs, compared to "just" 184 times in the offensive zone. Enough good things happen during his shifts that by the time Horc leaves the ice the puck is more likely than not to be in the offensive zone (+177/-156 = +21) Using Vic Ferrari's measure he calls ZoneShift -- and I should use Vic's measure since I'm using his stats -- that puts Horcoff at an astonishing +83. I haven't checked but surely that is one of the best such ratings in the loop.

It's not just PvP either, cuz Hemsky has started 14 more faceoffs in the offensive zone than the defensive. To recap, that's Horcoff +62, Hemsky -14.

That Horcoff has been doing double duty in the faceoff circle can be seen in this stat:

Player *Faceoffs FO%

Horcoff * 1008 * 52.2%
M.Richards 999 * 50.0
Pahlsson * 992 * 53.2
Crosby *** 989 * 49.6
BrindAmour 983 * 62.6
Carter *** 965 * 47.0
M.Koivu ** 960 * 54.3
E.Staal ** 901 * 44.8
D.Roy **** 889 * 50.3
Lecavalier 840 * 49.8

So here's another stat specific to his position: in faceoffs taken, Shawn Horcoff is the #1 C (pronounced: "Number One Centre") in the NHfreakingL. Horc's no Brind'Amour on the dot, but his percentage stacks up pretty darn well against the heavy-workload group. More importantly, his GA record suggests that even when he loses the draw he's hardly out of the play, and eventually the puck will start moving to the good end. The man makes a gigantic and still-understated contribution to his team.

Another great one honoured

2009-01-18T18:00:00.017-07:00

Although we have been in the same room over 500 times I have never really met Glenn Anderson. He came to my wife's class at Glenrose School Hospital with Ken Linseman and Don Jackson; and we once passed him at Pharos Pizza after a routine Oilers' win in which the conversation consisted of "Great game, Mr. Anderson!" from my wife, a smile and a nod from the man himself, and tongue-tied-ness from me. Around 1986 a thoughtful co-worker ran into him at some function and, knowing I was a huge fan, got him to sign the above poster which has adorned my basement wall ever since. The inset picture of Anderson with the little girl from Cross Cancer Institute sitting in the Stanley Cup was typical of an Oiler team that did great work in the community; that part of his fame Anderson took seriously, even as he danced to his own tune in many other respects. He and the media were never a mutual admiration society, let's put it that way.

I was an Anderson fan from the get-go, having seen him good during two cameo appearances at Varsity Arena during his amateur days. By the time he burst on the NHL scene at the advanced age of 20, he had developed an impressive array of skills to complement his blinding speed. The year on Clare Drake's Olympic team had done him a world of good.

In The Game of Our Lives, the must-read book on the developing dynasty that was the 1980-81 Edmonton Oilers, Peter Gzowski described Anderson at the beginning of that season:

"Number 9 is Glenn Anderson, still another vaunted rookie - perhaps too vaunted. At Lake Placid last year, Anderson was the most exciting player on the Canadian Olympic team, and when the Oilers signed him to a professional contract this summer, the scout who'd followed him made a flattering comparison between his speed and that of Guy Lafleur. Sather reacted vehemently, but the comparison had already been published. Still, if anyone can handle the pressure that kind of comparison entails, it is Anderson. He is fey. He comes either from Vancouver, as his birth records show, or from another planet; he seems incapable of giving a straight interview - he doesn't take the process seriously enough. He told the Oilers publicity department that his childhood idol was Wayne Gretzky, who is younger than he is. He has told other reporters that he dropped out of boyhood hockey because his feet got cold. Anderson bears an uncanny resemblance to television comedian Robin Williams, and since he does not appreciate being called Mork, he is in the process of growing a beard."

It took most of that first season for Anderson's head and hands to catch up with his feet, and for a brief time he was known for creating scoring chances that he couldn't finish. After a mid-season knee injury he returned stronger than ever, and during the team's remarkable late-season surge to the playoffs, he scored 9 goals in 7 games to reach the 30-goal plateau.

As those playoffs began, Gzowski did a similar review of the Oilers' starting lineup, including these words on Anderson:

Number 9, Glenn Anderson, is Andy now and not Mork, and he is close to fulfilling the potential the scouts saw when they signed him. As he went on his late-season scoring spree, he was named the Hockey News player of the week, an honour that among the Oilers had heretofore been reserved for Gretzky, who was so named an unprecedented four times. One of the newspapermen here, Tim Burke of the Gazette, is convinced that Anderson is cut from the mould of Maurice Richard - like Richard, he shoots left-handed and plays right wing - and Sather is concerned with that comparison as he was in the fall with the comparison between Anderson's skating abilities and those of Lafleur.

Hardly intimidated by such heady praise, Andy stayed hot right through the postseason, scoring the first goal in the Montreal Forum that kick started the Oilers shocking three-game blowout of Lafleur's Habs, and posting an impressive 5-7-12 in just 9 GP, all of them against either the Vezina trophy winning Habs or Stanley Cup champion Islanders. He was a great playoff performer right from the outset.

The next season the young Oilers blossomed into a fearsome offensive machine, with their first of five consecutive 400-goal seasons, a feat which has never been accomplished even once by any other NHL team. Anderson emerged as a 100-point scorer, setting a still-extant franchise record for assists by a winger (67). It set a standard even Mark Messier or Jari Kurri couldn't topple during their seasons on the First All-Star Team. His frequent linemate Messier achieved his career high 50 goals that 1981-82 season; in subsequent years Messier became more the playmaker and Anderson the finisher, although each was v-e-r-y comfortable in either role. Anderson potted 54 goals on two occasions during that run, sniping 198 goals in the four seasons 1982-86. He also recorded two more 100-point seasons, and another of 99 in 1983-84 in which a scorekeeper's error in Montreal cost Andy and the Oilers their best chance of having five 100-point scorers on the same squad.

For all his regular season success, Glenn Anderson lived for the playoffs, and always seemed to raise his game when the stakes were highest. A cursory look at his career stats indicates he kept his production near the same level: 0.97 points per game in the regular season, 0.95 in the playoffs. This is, however, tempered by the fact that Glenn played a disporportionate number of playoff games at the tail end of his career when his scoring rates were down. From the time the Rangers acquired him 'til the end, he played just 80 regular season games (just 7% of his career games), and 40 in the playoffs (18%). So it's hard to compare Anderson to say, Mark Messier, who played 484 regular season games after his last playoff game, thus dragging down just his regular season per-diems and effectively inflating his playoff numbers in comparison.

It's more germane to compare the performance of the Big Five during their time with the Oilers, where all played similar numbers of regular and post-season games at the same stages of their respective careers. First off, the Oilers themselves saw their per-game production decline slightly in the post-season. During Andy's career here 1980-91, their G/G rates dropped 4.65 to 4.36, a decline of 6.2%. This is pretty typical of the post-season generally. However, looking at the individual performances is instructive to say the least:

Player PPG ** R.S. / P.S. = difference
------------------------------------
Anderson **** 1.07 / 1.22 = +13.3%
Messier ***** 1.22 / 1.30 = +6.6%
Kurri ******* 1.38 / 1.38 = +0.0%
Gretzky ***** 2.40 / 2.10 = -12.4%
Coffey ****** 1.26 / 1.10 = -12.9%

While opposition teams ratcheted up the defensive pressure on the Great One, the Mess-Andy duo would pump up the volume and provide a much greater percentage of the scoring from the second line. In particular, Anderson's +13.3% is off the charts.

***
Edit January 31: In an ongoing discussion over at MC79hockey I have discovered I made an error in calculating the foregoing. Anderson's PPG rate in the playoffs in Edmonton was 1.12, not 1.22. That figure is not quite "off the charts" but is nonetheless exceptional. For details see my comment #19 on MC's site.
***

More evidence of Anderson's post-season focus can be found in shooting percentage. In his NHL career he exceeded 20% in just one regular season, 1985-86. Compare that to these post-season numbers:

1984-85 - 21.3%
1985-86 - 21.1%
1986-87 - 22.6%
1987-88 - 20.9%
1988-89 - 6.3% (7 games)
1989-90 - 21.7%

Anderson admits to losing focus after the Gretzky trade and the death of his friend George Varvis, scoring just 16 goals that 1988-89 season and just 1 in the Kings series; otherwise he was a monster in the post-season every year.

Of course stats don't, and shouldn't, tell the whole story. Fortunately, there's lots of us old-timers around with anecdotal evidence. One stunning example that I witnessed with my own eyes was Glenn scoring the game winner in three consecutive Oiler playoff overtime games (1985-87), an extraordinary "natural hat trick" after just 46, 64 and 36 seconds respectively. Boys, it's beer time. And you're buying.

Anderson could beat you with a move, a pass, or a shot. If you don't believe me, ask Doug Crossman, the Philadelphia blueliner who was a common victim of three memorable Andy plays in the wonderful series that was 1987 Stanley Cup Finals. All were scored in the east end of Northlands Coliseum so I had an identical view as each play unfolded with Anderson bursting over the right side of the Flyers' line. In Game 2 -- the greatest live hockey game I have ever seen -- Anderson scored the third period tying goal on a brilliant solo effort, freezing Crossman with a great move before blazing past him and picking the corner on Ron Hextall, sending the game to overtime and ultimately a 3-2 Oiler victory. In Game 7, with everything on the line, Anderson played perhaps the greatest game of his career. He set up the tying goal with another great effort, taking a lead pass right at the centre line, beating the first defender one-on-one before again freezing Crossman with a fake slapshot, this time slipping a pass through to Kent Nilsson who fed Mark Messier at the doorstep. Then late in the third, with the Oilers clinging to a 2-1 lead against the comeback-happy Flyers, Anderson again cruised over the blueline at speed, once again bearing down on Crossman and winding up for a slapshot. This time it was no fake, as he absolutely boomed a wicked drive right through Ron Hextall, a goal that finally nailed shut the coffin of the never-quit Flyers, even as it nearly tore the roof off of Northlands Coliseum. A moment I shall never forget.

Like Tim Burke I saw quite a bit of the Rocket in Anderson, from his blazing speed to his ability to rise to the occasion. On the attack he would cut hard to the net from either wing, most often the right side, protecting the puck with an out-thrust leg and shoulder, often handling the puck with one hand on the stick or even just one skate on the ice, driving straight at the goaltender, daring the defenceman to pull him down so he, puck and all, could crash right into the goalie and on into the net if need be. He drew a metric tonne of penalties -- only Gretzky was close -- as he drove through checks, kept his legs moving, didn't do the swan drive but crashed hard (and convincingly) to the ice, occasionally with his own stick flying up and "accidentally" clipping the defender. More than once a bewildered opponent needed a towel in the penalty box. Again like the Rocket, he was a hard, occasionally vicious competitor.

Andy was committed to Hockey Canada's national program, playing no fewer than 119 games for the Red Maple Leaf over parts of three seasons, as well as participating in the Olympic games, two Canada Cups, and two World Championships. He also represented the NHL's best in Rendezvous '87 against a Russian squad that he always admired.

One of seven Oilers who won all five Stanley Cups, Anderson later joined Kevin Lowe and Mark Messier in New York, where the first three draft picks in Oiler history won their sixth Cup together. Still in his young 30s, Andy became an international hockey nomad, playing in four different European leagues, as well as Team Canada and a couple of cameos in the NHL, including a late return to the Oilers. His priorities -- seeing the world, having fun, and winning -- took precedence over statistical objectives like 500 goals, a number he came up two short. Some Hall of Fame voters held this "shortcoming" against him, as well as some personal animosities which built up through Anderson's unwillingness to play the media game, delaying his admission into the Hall for a number of years. But Andy's spectacular record of accomplishment couldn't be denied forever, as voices from Wayne Gretzky to Mark Messier to Scott Bowman to lowly fans like me made the overwhelming case on his behalf.

After his Hall of Fame induction in November, tonight comes the cherry on top, as Andy's #9 is being raised to the ceiling in the building he called home for the greatest of his playing days. Congratulations, Andy, you deserve this.

Oilers 5, Capitals 2 -- Player gradings

2009-01-13T23:26:00.020-07:00

The Zorg Element

2009-01-02T00:30:00.022-07:00

This is Zorg Stortini, hired gun of the Edmonton Oilers. He's a funny looking fellow whose contribution is often misunderstood and frequently underappreciated.

Zorg bleeds Oiler blue, yet is often badmouthed by fans of his own team. Just the other day, Oilogosphere stalwart Andy Grabia made the following drive-by analysis:

I can't take any team with Zach Stortini on it seriously. Or any organization that considers him a Top 12 forward. I just can't.

A while back, the esteemed Lowetide made the following comments in his early season report card:

30%: Zack Stortini- Well, we knew he wasn't going to have a season like last year but I thought he'd be more than Wilfredo Tejada. I don't think it's his fault, really. Giving Stortini at-bats when he clearly doesn't give you offense is like playing Bob Natal at first base: he can do it, but does it help you? You'd have to write a 4,000 word essay on how being purely physical overwhelms putting up even a dribble of offense with the minutes Zack is getting.

Now it's not like I'm going to write a 4,000 word essay -- right??? -- but at the time I defended Zorg with these words:

I think "incomplete" would be a much fairer mark than 30 frickin percent for a guy who has only received 70 minutes TOI. Hard to deliver
offence from the pressbox or the bench. ... Zack's track record is that the more regularly he plays, the better he plays. Instead, MacT screwed around with the Pisani at centre experiment at the expense of young players including Brodziak, Pouliot, and Stortini.

Zorg's season continued in fits and spurts until he was inserted into the line-up on Dec. 13 against Vancouver, a team he has driven crazy his whole career. Since then he has played 9 games in a row, with a total ice time of 64:30, or slightly over 7 minutes per. All but 7 seconds of that was at even strength.

Zorg is an interesting player to track in that any line he's on is by definition the fourth line. Just as the Hemsky Line is the first regardless of who the other guys on it may be, the same may be said about the Stortini Line at the other end of the roster. Not that there's anything wrong with that; a healthy fourth line is critical to a team's success in my view.

Right now the canary in the coal mine is alive and well. Check out these numbers for those 9 games:

1G + 1A = 2P (1.86 P/60)

+3/-1 = +2

+2.79/-0.93 = +1.86/60

25 SoGF ON / 26 SoGA ON = -1 differential

16 hits

0 giveaways

1 takeaway

2 blocked shots

2-0 = 100% faceoffs

The usual caveat about small number statistics applies, but this looks like a typical 9-game stretch from last year's second half when even his many detractors had to admit Zorg was helping the club. The only large numbers in Zorg's stats apply to the physical side of the game: height, weight, hits, penalties, and fights. These are elements otherwise in very short supply on this team, that Zorg brings in spades.

For example, in those 9 games the Oilers landed a total of 128 hits. Stortini delivered fully 12.5% of those, in roughly 2.5% of the total individual ice time.

Let's look at that aspect of the game over the course of the season to date:

Hits/60 (20+ GP)

----------------

13.3 Stortini

6.8 Smid

6.4 Cole

6.2 Moreau

5.2 Strudwick

3.7 Staios

3.6 Pouliot

3.5 Penner

2.8 Brodziak

2.7 Cogliano

2.5 Nilsson

2.2 Souray
1.9 Grebsehkov

1.6 Gilbert

1.5 Visnovsky
1.2 Horcoff

0.9 Gagner

0.8 Hemsky

... meaning Zorg's hit rate is equal to the NEXT TWO highest regular Oilers. A few of those hits have been beauties, such as those on Shane O'Brien and Todd Fedoruk to name two.

Some of the small-number statistics are impressive by their very smallness. For example, giveaways. Zorg had none during that 9-game stretch; in fact he has had none to date in the entire season. Of the other 20-game Oilers, Strudwick has 7, Pouliot 8, everybody else at least 14. Zorg has Zero.

Then there's this one. A while back BCB made an insightful post in his blog Bringing Back the Glory about "aggressive" vs. "lazy" penalties. Accepting his definitions of what constitues each category (and there are some acknowledged gray areas), the Oilers as a team take about 2 lazy penalties for each aggressive one.

So far this season, Zorg leads the club with 87 PiM as befits his position description. In total he has taken 19 penalties, with the following breakdown: 19 aggressive penalties, 0 lazy penalties.

I would conclude here is a guy who understands what his job is. The vast majority of his penalties are coincidental of course, but the remainder are of the charging and roughing type, establishing a physical presence, standing up for teammates. Not a single obstruction foul for the entire season. It's kind of amazing when you think about it.

Heaven knows the Oilers, like all teams, need a physical presence. Indeed, Oilers have been branded a small, soft team. Zorg Stortini addresses a very major need on this club, and he does so while holding his own on the ice, by contributing a little bit and by giving away absolutely nothing. He can play in my Top 12 any day.

Flames 6, Oilers 4 -- player gradings

2009-01-01T16:58:00.006-07:00

I have offered to assist in David Staples' latest project over at Cult of Hockey, namely to grade the Oilers' players on a game-by-game basis. This is a collective effort, I'm just one member of a team of markers.

The scoring system is as follows: 10, perfect game; 9, extraordinary game; 8, great game; 7, good game; 6, above average game; 5, average game; 4, below average game; 3, bad game; 2, terrible game; 1, trade this player or send him to the minors.
***

This game was different from the Ottawa game and yet in many ways it was the same. Unlike the home contest against the sad sack Sens playing their third game in four nights on a western road trip, this time it was the Oilers who were the tired road team against a rested home favourite. And whereas the Oilers couldn't get the lead against Ottawa, against the Flames they couldn't hold the lead.

However, both games were tied after both the first and second periods, and both games were lost in the third. Both times the Oilers took one penalty in the third, and both times they didn't even come close to killing it. Instead, it killed them.

Having watched the PK unit fritter away two more games with a dreadful 4-for-8 record, I am running out of patience with a group of players who can't kill penalties (or avoid taking unnecessary ones), with a coaching staff that can't seem to teach the skill or the system, and with a management team which continues to sit on its hands while a gaping flaw seriously damages any playoff hopes this squad might have. The Oilers have allowed a league worst 1.17 PPGA/G; 28 clubs are at 1.00 or better, with only defensive lightweight Atlanta even in the same area code in terms of ineptitude. Attention: Management, this is a serious problem.

A not unrelated problem concerns faceoffs, where Oilers rank 27th in the NHL. For the second straight night the Oilers won just 38% of their draws and began far too many plays, including both special teams, without the puck. Again it's a puzzle that this skill is neither being successfully taught or addressed by way of player acquisition.

With that off my chest, on to the player ratings of another New Year's Eve loss in Calgary, an uneven performance in which two lines played well and two did not:
***

Ladislav Smid - 5: A solid, safe night with 0 GA in 16 minutes of action. Corsi number of -10 suggests play was in the bad end a little too often. Nice to hear Ray Ferraro confirm my observation of Smid's emerging confidence, especially in the area of breakout passes.

Shawn Horcoff - 3: A grisly night for my favourite Oiler. Was officially -3 in 14:07 at EV, was on for 2 more GA in 3:41 SH, while generating 0 GF in 5:20 on the PP. Bottom line, Oilers were outscored 5-0 in the 23 minutes Horcoff was on the ice. A lot of that was against Iginla's line, sure; Jarome himself schooled Horcoff by a similar 5-0 count in the faceoff circle, including all three faceoffs that immediately preceded the three Flames' powerplay goals. Horc finished the night just 8-16, 33% in the circle. His 3 shots on goal all came late with the Oilers down by 2 and shooting from everywhere; he had none with the game on the line. ES Corsi was -8. Had a hit, a takeaway and 2 blocks so was trying hard on the defensive side of the puck, but didn't get it done.

Robert Nilsson - 7: Was the polar opposite of Horcoff, as the Oilers outscored Calgary 4-0 in the 16:24 Nilsson was on the ice. Scored a powerplay goal, otherwise not involved in the scoring other than contributing to the flow of an effective line. Decent night defensively as well. Always seems to play well in his home town. Wish I could say the same of a more of his teammates.

Andrew Cogliano - 4: 2 shots, 2 blocks, 3 hits = a decent effort. Struggled in the circle yet again (2-8, 20%), and his line was badly outshot against medium opposition.

Ethan Moreau - 3: Compiled a spectacularly bad Corsi number of -17 in just 11:20 of EV play, as Calgary attempted 24 shots in that time, Oilers just 7. Was also burned on the decisive PPGA when Iginla outmuscled both him and Cole at the Oiler blueline. Was the second best captain on the ice by a very wide margin.

Steve Staios - 3: -1 in 14:26 at EV, and on for all 3 Calgary PPG in just 4:55 SH. Has struggled badly on the PK all year, both to my eye and statistically.

Erik Cole - 6: Has been Oilers' best player of late. 1-1-2, +2, with a team-leading 6 shots and 3 hits. Alas, like many Oilers, had a tough night on special teams, getting burned for the critical GA in just 1:27 SH TOI, and producing nothing in 5:11 on the PP.

Dustin Penner - 4: Played a much stronger and more involved game than against Ottawa, but didn't get it done. -2.

Dwayne Roloson - 4: Had enough offensive support to at least earn one standings point but didn't get it done. Aucoin's tying goal through his legs was a bit weak, and Boyd's 5-3 goal off a sloppy rebound killed any hope, and eventually stood up as the game winner. Hard to blame him on Iginla's darts, but didn't make the Big save either.

Denis Grebeshkov - 7: High event game to put it mildly. "Gretzbeshkov" was in on every Oiler goal (1-3-4), but was on for one EV GA, one PP GA, and was himself in the box for the game-turning 4-3 goal early in the third. Oilers outshot Calgary 17-10 at EV with Grebs on the ice.

Jason Strudwick - 7: The fourth line was the least of Oilers worries on this night. Oilers outshot Calgary 4-0 with Strudwick on the ice. Had a hit, a takeaway, and absolutely no negative events.

Sheldon Souray - 3: Similar night to Horcoff. -2 at EV, 2 GA in 3:43 SH TOI, and 0 GF in 7:04 on the PP. Moreover, was sitting in the box himself for Aucoin's tying goal after taking a silly delay of game penalty with a 150-foot slapshot over the glass. Ugly night all the way around.

Zack Stortini - 7: Like Strudwick had a very solid, safe game on the fourth line. On a night the team Corsi number was -10, Stortini posted a team leading +7 in his 8 minutes, allowing just 1 attempted shot to the Flames against 8 for the good guys. A shot, a couple of hits, and no negative events and no worries. Moved the puck sharply and in the right direction all night.

Kyle Brodziak - 7: Centred that effective fourth line, posting 3 shots, 3 hits, and 3 blocks. His Corsi of +1 indicates he did less well in spot duty on other lines. At 9-9, 50% was the best of the Oilers in the faceoff circle, and was one of the few PKers who didn't get burned for a GA.
Gilbert Brule - 3: Posted an unflattering Corsi of -13 in just 8:45, and took a rockhead tripping penalty off a lost offensive zone faceoff which led to the 2-2 goal. Didn't have much jump, perhaps due to a late-night call-up and all-day flight.

Lubomir Visnovsky - 6: Decent night at EV, scored a goal, a couple of shots, 4 blocks. But like everybody on the first PP unit, didn't get anything done in 6:55.

Tom Gilbert - 6: Had a far more effective game than his regular partner Souray, contributing an assist on a second-unit powerplay goal and another on Cole's meaningless late tally. Wasn't on for a Calgary goal in his 17:21.

Liam Reddox - 3: Tried hard (3 hits), but was outclassed in a match-up against Cammalleri. Oilers were outshot 7-2 with Reddox on the ice, and outscored 2-0. Brutal night for the rejigged "first" line on a night the Oilers badly missed Ales Hemsky.

Sam Gagner - 7: Centred the club's strongest line, posting 0-2-2, +2. Was on the ice for all 4 Oiler goals and just the empty net GA. Took another in a troublesome series of penalties, which happened to be one of the two penalties the Oil actually killed off. This is one team that can't afford bad penalties, though, and Sam needs to nip this trend in the bud.

Senators 3, Oilers 2 -- player gradings

2009-01-01T16:55:00.011-07:00

I have offered to assist in David Staples' latest project over at Cult of Hockey, namely to grade the Oilers' players on a game-by-game basis. This is a collective effort, I'm just one member of a team of markers.

The scoring system is as follows: 10, perfect game; 9, extraordinary game; 8, great game; 7, good game; 6, above average game; 5, average game; 4, below average game; 3, bad game; 2, terrible game; 1, trade this player or send him to the minors.
***

I had the opportunity to attend the game Tuesday night and found it frustrating in the extreme as the Oilers found a way to lose, in regulation, to a team that hadn't won a road game in two months. This continues a frustrating pattern of regulation home losses to (other?) non-playoff teams -- Toronto, L.A., Florida, now Ottawa. The Oilers need to be making hay in such games, and their lack of offence in the friendly confines is hard to fathom, and their seeming unwillingness to work as hard as the other guys unacceptable. Last night Ottawa played with far more determination and desperation, and deserved the two points. Oilers needed a couple of guys to step up in the absence of Hemsky, and instead played uninspired hockey for the most part, mustering just 7 shots in the first 33 minutes. Oilers did generate a number of scoring chances, but far too often shot wide, fanned on the puck, or didn't get the bounce. The squad lost too many puck battles, starting in the faceoff circle where they collectively went 17-28, 38%, including one that led directly to a GA and none that resulted in any offensive chances.
***

Ladislav Smid - 5: Looking comfortable, competent and at times commanding in the third pairing. Night's work was undone by a poor read on Ottawa's first goal in which Smid drifted into the low slot to cover Heatley (who was briefly open and calling for a pass) while neglecting Spezza who slipped in behind him to tap in Alfredsson's perfectly timed pass.

Shawn Horcoff - 7: Battled Ottawa's top guns to a standstill (+2/-2) and generated some decent chemistry with Reddox. Tough night in the circle, where he fared well in the neutral zone (4-2, 67%) but poorly where it mattered (3-7, 30%). Cleanly lost the faceoff to Spezza and didn't obstruct the big man from driving to the net where he ultimately scored the game's first goal.

Robert Nilsson - 5: Had a fine game without the puck, but did absolutely nothing with it. Row-bert just isn't feeling it these days. 3 hits, 0 shots.

Andrew Cogliano - 4: Always impresses with his speed through the neutral zone but his line too delivered not much in the offensive zone. His continued poor performance in the faceoff circle (1-5, 17%) hamstrings his line, which didn't start once from an own-zone draw. Got sucked out of position on the powerplay GA that decided the game in Ottawa's favour.

Ethan Moreau - 5: Also got burned on the GWG when the Oilers PK lost its shape yet again, allowing a free shot from the slot. Skated hard, was rewarded with a goal and very nearly another. 0 hits.

Steve Staios - 5: No problems with effort as usual, but coverage problems in the defensive zone persist. Was victimized by Alfredsson on Ottawa's first goal.

Erik Cole - 6: Skated miles, worked hard. Led the Oilers forwards in TOI (21:23) and all Oilers in hits (4) and attempted shots (8). Hit the crossbar on a weird breakaway from the corner, increasing what must surely be his league lead in goalposts hit. His iron-to-net ratio is out of this world. Still, Cole seems to be a one-man show out there at times, and for all his effort his line didn't really click.

Dustin Penner - 3: Seemed to have gotten out of the wrong side of bed. It was one of those days when his big body was uncoordinated, as pass after pass seemed to go right through his stick. Normally a master of body positioning, Penner was a day late and a dollar short to far too many puck battles, losing far more than his share. Most irksome of all was his unwillingness to compensate by throwing his big body around a little bit. Had a nice deflection which led to Reddox's goal, but Oilers needed way more from the big man. 3 missed shots, 4 giveaways, -1.

Mathieu Garon - 6: A solid night's work for the most part, although 3 GA on 25 shots is nothing special. Did make a number of fine stops, including a dazzling paddle save off of Spezza in the first. Trouble handling the puck

Denis Grebeshkov - 6: Solid, mostly uneventful night. He makes a lot of plays with his tremendous skating ability, especially laterally.

Jason Strudwick - 5: I'm liking Strudwick as a forward more than I thought I would, which is to say MUCH more than I do as a defenceman. His lack of speed is a detriment but he played a strong game along the wall, moving the puck safely and taking the body. Safe, but limited.

Sheldon Souray - 6: Didn't get much chance to strut his stuff on the powerplay, as the zebras pocketed their whistles for the most part. When they finally remembered where they were, Souray was the victim of a very borderline holding penalty which ultimately cost the Oilers the game. Also screened Garon on Alfredsson's goal. Sheldon did move the puck effectively for the most part, and Oilers outshot Ottawa 12-5 while he was on the ice.

Zack Stortini - 6: The crowd was really buzzing anytime Zack was out there, especially on the forecheck where he was winning lots of races to the puck and subsequent puck battles on the end-board cycle. He is far from the best skater on the team, but nobody skates harder. on this night his effort stood out like a sore thumb. To my eye had way more than the 1 official hit he was credited with, presumably the solid crunch on Neil. Would have had a 7 except for an unnecessary penalty.

Kyle Brodziak - 6: A versatile night in which he centred an effective fourth line, spotted in on the wing in Pouliot's absence, and played well on the PK where he led Oiler forwards in TOI. A solid 60% in just 5 faceoffs (there were just 45 total on the night). 0 shots, however.

Lubomir Visnovsky - 6: Played well enough but didn't bring enough offence on a night Oilers needed some. None of his four attempted shots even hit the net. He and Grebs played effectively as a pair, with each covering off the other's defensive gaffes.

Tom Gilbert - 7: An effective night with 4 shots, 2 blocks, +1 and a Corsi of +10. Landed a couple of beauty body checks in the first, neither of which seemed to register with the RTSS counter for whatever reason. When Gilbert does decide to step up as a surprise tactic he can be an effective hitter.

Marc Pouliot - 5: Graded on half a game (5:41) in which he generated 0 shots, hits, or positives or negatives of any type. Left himself exposed for the big hit, although in his defence he certainly took the hit to make the play. Oilers were even more discombobulated after he left the game.

Liam Reddox - 6: A surprise choice to replace Hemsky on the first line, generated nothing offensively before scoring on a zero-foot shot to tie the score 2-2 late in the second. Was a new man after that and played a real solid third.

Sam Gagner - 4: Did not build on his fine performance against Nashville. Had plenty of opportunity in 20:40 TOI (more than Horcoff!), but created next to nothing with just 1 shot -- in fact the Oilers as a team had just 5 in Gagner's 20 minutes. 2 giveaways, and was just 5-9, 36% on a night Oilers got owned in the faceoff circle (again). Managed to stay out of the sinbin after a recent rash of bad penalties (6 minors in 3 games).

Anniversaries VIII: 50 in 39

2008-12-30T18:19:00.015-07:00

It was a magic time. If you didn't live through it, it's hard to comprehend what a record-breaking machine Wayne Gretzky was. He didn't just break records, he destroyed them with a flair for the dramatic. Examples:

-- Gretzky scored his first 1000 points in just 424 games. The second fastest to the mark, Guy Lafleur, needed 720 games. The night Gretzky hit the 1000 mark, he piled in 5 more points as a down payment on the next 1000.

-- On April 9, 1987, Gretzky started the night tied with Jean Beliveau for the most points in the Stanley Cup playoffs, 176. By night's end Gretzky had tied another playoff record, his own mark of 7 points in a playoff game, and was 7 points clear of Beliveau. Oilers beat the Kings 13-3, setting a couple of still-extant team records en route to their first victory in what became their third Stanley Cup.

-- On February 24, 1982, Gretzky broke Phil Esposito's record for goals in a season by scoring his 77th, 78th, and 79th goals in the last seven minutes of the third period. His natural hat trick blew open a 3-3 tie into a 6-3 Oiler celebration, and capped a streak of four consecutive five-point nights for the Great One as he relentlessly overcame Esposito's awesome record with six weeks to spare.

Of all the records, the most spectacular run had to be earlier in that 1981-82 season when Gretzky challenged and ultimately demolished the most fabled record in hockey, Rocket Richard's 50 goals in 50 games. The previous season the great Mike Bossy had equalled Richard's mark which had stood unchallenged for 35 seasons.

It was clear in the fall of '81 that Gretzky had the mark in his sights. After a run of 7 goals in 7 periods in late November, including his second four-goal game of the season, Gretzky reached 31 goals early in Game 26. For the rest of that game and the next four Gretzky slumped, scoring nary a goal -- albeit with 13 (!!) assists -- to fall to just 1 goal ahead of the goal-a-game pace. In the next four games he remained there, scoring exactly one goal in each and reaching 35 goals in 34 games as the Oilers began a five game Crhistmas home stand. It looked like it would be nip and tuck for several more weeks, maybe until Games 49 and 50 in late January.

I was already a big believer in the Great One, predicting to my season ticket mates on opening night that he would score 200 points that season in what developed into an audacious, hellacious bet. Supremely confident as I was in the young man's magic, that prediction ultimately turned out to be conservative (I guessed "only" 80-120-200, whereas he really went 92-120-212 in yet another demolition job not just of records but of all reason). Even I, staunch predictor of a goal-a-game for the season, could never have guessed the dramatics that would be packed into that five-game stand.

What did happen is emblazoned in my memory as one of the most incredible sustained displays of individual domination that I've ever seen. By the time the home stand was over, the Great One had lit the lamp an incredible 15 times, adding a not-inconsequential 10 assists for 25 points. I could cite you his game-by-game numbers chapter and verse, but you can see for yourself courtesy the Hockey Summary Project, linked below:

December 19 - Oilers 9, North Stars 6: 3-4-7
December 20 - Flames 7, Oilers 5: 2-1-3
December 23 - Oilers 6, Canucks 1: 1-3-4
December 27 - Oilers 10, Kings 3: 4-1-5

By December 30, 27 years ago today, Gretz stood at 45 in 38 and it was clear the record was going to fall. As my mates and I made the 7-minute walk from our (still free!) parking spot to the Coliseum, we discussed the upcoming sked and guessed how many more games it would take. Tonight's opponent was no Campbell Conference softie but the perennial powerhouse Philadelphia Flyers. Yet suddenly I blurted out, "You know, it's not impossible, he only needs five" ...

Did I mention this was a magic time? Like George Orr in "The Lathe of Heaven", one merely needed to imagine the dream for it to come true. Every draft prospect seemingly developed into a Hall of Famer, the owner promised and delivered a Stanley Cup within 5 years, and Wayne Gretzky wrote scripts that would have been too silly for Hollywood but which boggled the mind in reality.

And so it was on December 30, 1981, a date that will forever be locked in hockey lore:
December 30 - Oilers 7, Flyers 5: 5-1-6

Gretzky scored twice in the first period, then beat Pete Peeters once more in each of the second and third taking him to 49, before notching his 50th on a dramatic empty netter with just 3 seconds remaining to clinch an incredible 7-5 Oilers victory. His 50th was set up by Grant Fuhr and Glenn Anderson and scored past a diving Bill Barber, Hockey Hall of Famers all, but at that moment, the 20-year-old Gretzky was a colossus who stood alone astride his sport like few -- Babe Ruth, Pele, Michael Jordan, Lance Armstrong, Tiger Woods -- ever have.

Today I had the privilege of watching that entire game for the first time since I attended the actual game. It's disc #1 in the new DVD set of the Oilers' 10 greatest games that showed up under the tree the other day. To see Gretzky's performance in the context of the entire game is much more compelling than just a highlight-reel goal, goal, goal, goal, empty net goal. It is essential viewing for those who didn't live through it but who want to get a sense of what made Gretzky so sensationally special at such a tender age.

In this game, not unlike many others of that magic time, he generated chance after chance after great scoring chance in a transcendent display of hockey genius. I didn't document but I would bet he had at least a dozen shots on net and easily could have had 12 or 15 points if every ten-bell scoring chance went in. Peeters robbed him point blank on at least three occasions, and as usual Gretzky unselfishly dished the puck to the man in the best scoring position, even when he was temprarily "stuck" on 49 goals with time running out. He was an incredibly unselfish player in that respect, talking the talk -- "My dad always told me an assist is as good as a goal" -- and walking the walk. But he was just selfish enough to shoot himself if he was the guy in the best position ... which obviously happened fairly frequently.

Gretzky scored an NHL record 10 hat tricks in that 92-goal season, a record that has been equalled only once, by Gretzky himself in his 87-goal season two years later. He had at least one assist in all ten of those games, in fact he scored at least five points in all ten. No "soft" hat tricks like, say, 3-0-3 for the Great One; he scored goals and points in bunches.

The Great One also set a modern record during that Philly game of four, 4-goal games in one season; again a record he equalled two years later but nobody else has approached since the days of Joe Malone. Gretzky established yet a third separate mark by being the only player in the history of the game to notch consecutive games of 4+ goals, a feat even he accomplished just this once ... while under the heat of attacking, and demolishing, the greatest single record in the sport.

The 82nd Spengler Cup

2008-12-27T14:35:00.008-07:00

As a lifelong fan of international hockey, I have followed the Spengler Cup since Canada first got involved in 1984, and have watched it faithfully every year it's been televised. In my household this tourney has become a holiday staple right up there with the World Junior. A simple five-team round robin where the top two teams advance directly to a one-game final, it's a compact event that always fits in the short week between Boxing Day and New Year's Eve. The constants are the host team Davos and the itinerant collection of pan-European imports known as Team Canada, with three club teams from across Europe invited each year to fill the slate. The tourney therefore maintains a healthy mix of variety and tradition.

Whereas in the World Jr. you might get a chance to see an Oiler or two of the future, in the Spengler there always seems to be quite a few Oilers of the past. This year Team Canada features Domenic Pittis and Brad Isbister, as well as recent farmhand T.J.Kemp; Davos has Janne "Spaz" Niinimaa, Michel "The Swiss Miss" Riesen, and Tony Salmelainen; German club team ERC Ingolstadt have a couple of import defencemen from very different Oiler eras, namely Allan Rourke and Brian Muir. Cups of coffee in most cases; this tournament is just loaded with guys who were on the cusp of The Show before carving out very respectable careers over in Europe. (Full tournament rosters can be found here.)

Canada is always well-represented by enough of the same players year to year to really have established a team identity. Unlike the NHLers who all too frequently -- for reasons that continue to escape me -- snub their noses at the World Championships, Canadian imports based in Europe never refuse the invitation to play in the Spengler Cup, where it seems a great time is had by all. Former NHLers like Pittis, Hnat Domenichelli, Shawn Heins, Stacy Roest, Jeff Toms, Jean-Guy Trudel, and this year's captain Serge Aubin, seem to be there every year. With the pipeline suffused with "newcomers" who have more recently made their way to Europe like Isbister, Randy Robitaille, Rico Fata, Byron Ritchie, Joel Kwiatkowski and Ric Jackman, Canada once again has a strong team at their 25th Spengler Cup in 2008. The boys wear the Red Maple Leaf with obvious pride and have represented the country brilliantly over the past quarter century, winning 11 titles. Last year the heavy underdog Canadians rode the red-hot goaltending of former Oiler Curtis Joseph to a pair of victories over eventual KHL champions Salavat Yulaev Ufa, including a 2-1 thriller in the tournament finale.

There's never a dull moment in the beautiful and always-packed arena in Davos, but it's always electric for the Canada-Davos match in particular. Given that the three European invitees are different ever year, Canada-Davos is the best rivalry by far, and today's game before 6700 singing, chanting, cheering fans was a beauty. HC Davos is always an offence-first outfit that plays a highly-entertaining style, but today the early minutes featured lots of bad blood (both real and imagined) which brought the intensity level way up. A ding-dong affair ensued with Canada battling back from 3-0, 4-2, and 5-4 deficits, with Domenichelli scoring a "60th minute" equalizer -- courtesy an horrific Niinimaa gaffe -- to force OT and ultimately a shootout. Davos, who had earlier scored on a penalty shot, notched the only goal in "penalties" to finally decide the matter, 6-5 for the home side. Still, with their dogged comeback Canada earned a valuable standings point and at 1-0-1 remain firmly in control of their destiny.

Sunday is Canada's rest day -- every team gets one, but where it falls in the five days of the round robin is the luck of the draw -- before facing Ingolstadt on Monday and the fabled Dynamo Moskva on Tuesday in a match which will likely determine at least one of the finalists. Dynamo features no former Oilers on its roster, but a bushel of former NHLers like Karel Rachunek, Alexei Zhitnik, Peter Cajanek, Vitaly Yachmenev, Vitaly Karamnov, Mattias Weinhandl, and Canadian Eric Landry. Both remaining Canada games will be featured on the gamut of Sportsnet channels at various times around mid-day, while Wednesday morning's final will be televised live in the wee hours and, I hope, rebroadcast at a more humane hour.

Spengler Cup hockey is not NHL calibre, but it's a very decent level of men's professional hockey, with most of the games far more competitive than the round robin portion of the World Juniors. Moreover, it's a European festival of hockey that acknowledges the game's roots with the permanent inclusion of Team Canada. A great hockey tradition now in its 82nd iteration, the Spengler Cup seems like a terrific party every year; I'd sure love to check it out in person one of these years.

It's the best game you can name

2008-12-21T23:22:00.003-07:00

Where's Waldo?

Friday night the call came about 20 minutes before the opening face-off. "Bruce, something's come up, would you like a pair of tickets to the game?" My son and I had been planning to go to a sports bar to chow down on chicken wings and watch the PPV broadcast, so the mid-course correction was relatively painless.

It's rare enough that I get the pleasure of attending a live game with my son. Kevin was just 5 and beginning Tom Thumb hockey in the fall of 1993 when I gave up my Oiler season tickets after 16 mostly wonderful seasons. I watched him play hundreds of games in the next dozen years, coached him in hundreds of practices. Kevin much prefers playing the game to watching it, but we usually make it out to at least one Oilers game a year, usually around his mid-December birthday. (He turned 21 this week) So the timing was perfect.

Except we were late. By the time we had driven, parked, walked, collected our tickets and found our seats -- Row 27, top of the circle of the Oilers attacking zone -- we'd missed about 8 minutes. Score was 0-0, and by the time I thought to check out the shot clock it stood at 10-1 Oilers. That shot clock would continue to mount in bursts for both teams in a penalty-filled, action-packed affair.

The opposition were the Anaheim Ducks, once Mighty, now just another team give or take Chris Pronger (pictured above battling Dustin Penner in good times and bad). A handful of fans booed half-heartedly whenever he handled the puck, but the venom that had run through the entire building the last time I'd seen him live (in "The Return of Chuckie" game) had now largely run its course.

If this game was any indication, so has Pronger himself. While leading both teams with over 33 minutes of ice time, he was mediocre at best, anchoring a defence that allowed 53 shots on goal, himself with the worst 5v5 shots differential on either team (-7), a goal differential of -1, and a game high 5 giveaways, while none of his 4 attempted shots on goal even reached the net. As one who has watched Pronger closely his entire career -- I picked him in my keeper league pool as an 18-year-old rookie in 1993 and have had him on my team ever since -- it was one of the least influential games I've ever seen him play. On this night at least, Ladi "Fifth Asset" Smid was better.

Pronger was sitting in the penalty box when the goose eggs were broken late in the first. Alas, rather than make him pay for his transgression, the Oil committed a couple of their own in allowing a brutal shorthanded goal against. Sam Gagner made a terrible blind back pass which led directly to the Brothers Niedermayer breaking loose on a 2-on-1. Robert Nilsson, hustling back to defend, broke stride just long enough to watch the initial shot, then arrived a split second too late at the edge of the crease to take Rob Niedermayer's stick on the juicy rebound. Later Nilsson would pay the price and spend the third period on the bench, while Gagner would, as usual, escape the wrath of his coach.

Bad went to worse early in the second as the Oilers started to run around and take penalties. Ducks barely missed on two tap-in opportunities on the first powerplay chance, peppered Roloson with shots in the second, before the weasel Corey Perry made the Oil pay for the third penalty with a nice deflection off a Bobby Ryan spinnarama. 2-0.

Minutes later the game began to turn the Oilers way when Smid absolutely clocked the hated Perry with a great open ice hit. While Perry went down and stayed down, Ryan Getzlaf came to challenge Smid for the clean hit. Ladi did not refuse the invitation, removing his shielded helmet and giving Getzlaf the "let's go" motion. A linesman intervened before the fight could materialize, but the Oilers were energized by Smid's big hit and subsequent refusal to back down. The following minutes featured a parade to the penalty box on both sides. The Oilers wound up taking 8 penalties in the period with only Smid's being coincidental. Disaster nearly occurred in the last minute when Ethan Moreau took his second silly slashing penalty of the period to put Oilers 2 men down, then couldn't resist beaking off to the ref and drawing an unsportsmanlike call. Three stupid penalties in one period -- call it the Ethan Moreau Hat Trick. Somehow Oilers survived the 5-on-3 and got to the buzzer still only down 2-0.

During the intermission we went down to the "club" section beneath the stands, where it seems one can get "clubbed" even worse for concession prices. We quickly thought better of parting with any cash, but Kevin wanted to watch the players walk out of the dressing room so we hung around. A surprising number of people had the same idea, including a few puck bunnies fully decked out in their Gagner and Hemsky jerseys (with many signatures on the numbers). The doors behind the hige silver Oilers logo opened, revealing five replica Stanley Cups at the end of the hall. Soon enough, the players clumped out, large as life and seeming larger in their skates and shoulder pads. Penner, Stortini, Smid, Souray ... these are large men. People called out words of encouragement but the local warriors kept their gazes fixed straight ahead on the task at hand.

By the time the ropes were lowered and we emerged into the bottom of the lower bowl the puck was being dropped, so we ducked down and sat on the steps immediately behind the Ducks bench. For two and a half exhilarating minutes the play whirled in front of us at a dizzying speed. At such a low angle it was difficult to follow the rapid movement of the puck through the constant shift of bodies, and I empathized anew with the plight of the goaltenders. Indeed, from our angle it was difficult to catch a glimpse of Roli in a high speed game of "Where's Waldo?" as he attempted to track the puck through the swirling maze. The powerplay continued at the far end, the puck zipping from stick to stick, suddenly a shot and the clang of a post behind Roloson, but no harm done. The zone was cleared, the play zipped in front of us for a second, and as Anaheim worked it back up the ice the simple line change was elevated into an art form as first one, then the other defenceman safely but warily made his way to the Ducks bench. Again the Ducks worked it deep and crashed the net, but as Roli went down the ref's arm went up and finally the whistle blew. Bobby Ryan -- who looks like a force to be reckoned with btw -- had been caught for the game's third goaltender interference penalty.

Rather than return to our seats Kevin and I found an empty pair of aisle seats about 15 rows above the Ducks blueline and enjoyed the rest of the game from there. We certainly chose the right end to sit in; the Oilers began to surge, and the tiring Ducks beat a steady path to the penalty box. The two-goal deficit seemed insurmountable with Jonas Hiller playing brilliantly in the Ducks goal, but finally there was a breakthrough from a most unexpected source.

The fourth line had been nailed to the bench with all the penalties, but just past the 6-minute mark Zack Stortini and Jason Strudwick took the ice for the first time in a full period. Within seconds Stortini ran Pronger with a clean bodycheck, forcing the play into Anaheim's zone. As Stortini charged towards the goal mouth a puck was shot into the melee, bouncing off Zack's skate and right onto the stick of Kyle Brodziak who buried it into the top corner. The crowd erupted in a frenzy, the shutout broken. A 23-second shift by the scrubs, and wouldn't you know but the Oilers were back in the game.

Minutes later the Ducks young star Ryan Getzlaf went off for interference, and seconds later their old star Scott Niedermayer joined him in the box for crosschecking Sam Gagner on an impressive burst to the goal. Surely even the Oilers couldn't blow a 2-man advantage for 1:51? Oh, of course they could, and they did, with lots of help from Hiller who made two tremendous stops off of patented Horcoff one-timers. The man's lateral motion is just sick. As Gagner lost a draw which frittered away the last seconds of the powerplay, the night's best hope seemed lost, only to be renewed when Mr. Kristi Yamaguchi (Bret Hedican) took yet another penalty for carelessly dumping the puck over the glass. I've seen enough hockey to realize this would be the one to burn the Ducks, and sure enough, within a few seconds the impromptu PP line of Pouliot, Gagner and Cole (9 goals among them on the season) had combined for the equalizer, as Cole batted a rebound out of mid-air and into the net to break a season-long drought at Rexall.

The Oilers continued to pour it on and the Ducks to hang on. Yet another penalty in the late minutes saw the Oilers peppering Hiller with shot after shot, 6 in all including three wicked slappers by Souray and two by Visnovsky. Hiller stared them down.

The buzzer assured the Oilers of their first point in a frustrating week, and on to overtime we went. In 4v4 play MacT sent out ever-changing twosomes up front: 89-26 ; 13-78 ; 10-83; 13-89 ; 13-26 ; 83-26 ; 10-13 ; 89-83 all got time together. Cole, strong all night and flying since his goal, had the best chance, wiring a slap shot past Hiller but off the inside of the post. The crowd raised their voice as one at the opportunity, letting out a mighty "Oh-h-h-h!!!" of despond as the puck clanked off the iron.

Again the buzzer sounded without resolution, so on to the shootout we went. The weasel Perry scored on a nifty deke on the first attempt, and that was all she wrote. Roloson made fine plays to thwart Getzlaf and Ryan to keep hope alive, but all three Oilers shooters made weak attempts and never threatened to score. Both Pouliot and Hemsky made slow-motion moves to the backhand and couldn't lift the puck into the tiny hole that may have been available up top. As the last shooter, "shootout specialist" Sam Gagner, approached the puck the crowd all rose from their seats. Alas, Sam wasn't up to the occasion, bobbling the puck right off the hop, altering both his flight path and his stickhandling confidence, and he fired weakly into Hiller's blocker to end with a whimper what had been a slambang affair.

Oilers have now won just 2 of their last 10 at home, an unacceptable streak at any point of any season. Once again their special teams had been their undoing: they won the even-strength game 1-0, held Anaheim to one PP goal in 8 attempts, but ruined it by scoring just 1 of 10 powerplays of their own while allowing the killer shortie against. The other "special team", the shootout squad, didn't deliver either.

Still, it was tough to complain. Even with the Bettman-era anticlimax the game was great, the price was right, and the time with my son was well spent. A highlight moment came in the second period when Kevin suddenly fixated on George Parros and his infamous moustache, which he labelled "right out of the '80s". ("Ouch!" I remembered) Right on cue Parros jumped over the blue line ahead of the play forcing an offside whistle. A couple rows below us a leatherlung hollered: "Hey Parros! Your moustache went offside!" You had to be there, but the timing was perfect, and Kevin laughed until the tears rolled. The good times rolled right along with them.

Tracking Ladi II

2008-12-11T13:05:00.025-07:00

At the beginning of the season I identified Ladislav Smid as a player of interest. A third of the way into the campaign, his development has been derailed somewhat by a concussion and complicated by Craig MacTavish's seeming preference for a marginal veteran (Jason Strudwick) over the emerging youngster. Still, there's a big enough data set to see how Ladi stacks up in the team's hierarchy.

As we did in part one of this series, let's start again with stats compiled by Gabe Desjardins of Behind the Net:

GA ON/60
--------
0.43 Ladislav Smid (12 GP)
1.36 Lubomir Visnovsky (25 GP)
2.23 Steve Staios (24 GP)
2.31 Jason Strudwick (22 GP)
2.33 Denis Grebeshkov (22 GP)
2.39 Sheldon Souray (24 GP)
3.24 Tom Gilbert (25 GP)

+-/60
-----
+0.96 Visnovsky
+0.48 Souray
+0.42 Smid
+-0.0 Grebeshkov
-0.15 Gilbert
-0.56 Staios
-1.16 Strudwick

QualComp
--------
+0.06 Smid
+0.04 Gilbert
+0.03 Souray
+0.03 Grebeshkov
+0.02 Visnovsky
+0.01 Strudwick
+-0.0 Staios

QualTeam
--------
+0.32 Souray
+0.25 Visnovsky
+0.14 Grebeshkov
+0.10 Gilbert
-0.12 Smid
-0.21 Staios
-0.26 Strudwick
---

It would appear the last category is affected by defence partner, given that for the most part the top two on the list have played together, as have the next two, with the bottom three mostly combining as the third pairing and largely playing with one of the other two. Be that as it may, from the QualComp metric Smid has played the toughest foes on the club, Staios and Strudwick the weakest.

Since the top four are pretty well defined on this club anyway I'll simply look at 5-24-43 from here on.

ES TOI (from HockeyAnalysis.com)
------
Staios 341:44
-- w. Strudwick 213:56 (63%)
-- w. Smid 65:02 (19%)

Strudwick 275:30
-- w. Staios 213:56 (78%)
-- w. Smid 26:31 (10%)

Smid 141:01
-- w. Staios 65:02 (46%)
-- w. Strudwick 26:31 (19%)
---

As the de facto 7th guy Smid filled in for both Staios and Strudwick when both missed time for various reasons, so he wound up on the third pairing naturally. He also got a little time with Visnovsky when Souray was out, and a little more with Gilbert when Grebs was out, as MacT clearly didn't want to mess with the mighty pairing of Staios and Strudwick. And when all 7 have been healthy, Smid has been the choice of healthy scratch for reasons that continue to escape me entirely. Hockeyanalysis.com provides the evidence:

GF/GA per 20
------------
Staios w . Smid: +0.000 / -0.000 = EVEN
Staios w/o Smid: +0.723 / -1.012 = -0.289
Smid w/o Staios: +0.526 / -0.263 = +0.263

Strudwick w . Smid: +0.000 / -0.000 = EVEN
Strudwick w/o Smid: +0.402 / -0.964 = -0.562
Smid w/o Strudwick: +0.349 / -0.175 = +0.174

Staios w. Strudwick: +0.374 / -1.028 = -0.654
Staios w/o Struds: +0.939 / -0.469 = +0.470
Struds w/o Staios: +0.325 / -0.325 = EVEN
---

That's per period, meaning that for every 60 minutes they play together, Staios and Strudwick have been outscored by 2 goals. Either on his own has been OK, and either with Smid has pitched zeroes. Staios is +6/-3 = +3 without Strudwick, +4/-11 = -7 with him. My eyes have not been deceiving me: this partnership has struggled.

But GF/GA are small number statistics (esp. for Smid!), so let's avail ourselves of the ES shots data from Timeonice.com, and prorate them to the above ES ice time. I prefer per/60:

SF/SA per 60
------------
Smid overall: +29.8 / -31.9 = -2.1
Staios overall: +22.4 / -33.5 = -11.1
Strudwick overall: +18.9 / -36.2 = -17.3

Staios w . Smid: +29.3 / -31.4 = -2.1
Staios w/o Smid: +20.1 / -33.0 = -12.9
Smid w/o Staios: +30.0 / -32.4 = -2.4

Strudwick w . Smid: +29.4 / -43.0 = -13.6
Strudwick w/o Smid: +17.8 / -35.4 = -17.6
Smid w/o Strudwick: +29.9 / -29.3 = +0.6

Staios w . Strudwick: +18.2 / -34.2 = -16.0
Staios w/o Strudwick: +29.6 / -32.4 = -2.6
Strudwick w/o Staios: +21.4/ -42.9 = -21.5
---

I have nothing at all against Jason Strudwick, but I just don't see any way to interpret the above except to conclude he stinks at evens. As a pair, he and Staios have been brutal, outshot 34-18 per 60 minutes and outscored 3-1. Without Staios, Strudwick's performance has been even worse, whereas Staios at least gets up near the waterline. Smid, meanwhile, tools along at about +30/-30 with everybody, except Strudwick where his shots against rate just plummets into the ghastly mid-40s.

Finally, a hodge podge of other "new statistics". Again from Timeonice.com, the stat Vic Ferrari calls ZoneShift, where a positive number means play is tending from the defensive to offensive zone with Player X on the ice, followed by Scoring Opportunities for and against as tracked by Dennis over at MC79hockey, and Errors as tabulated by David Staples at Cult of Hockey.

ZoneShift
---------
Smid ******** -5 (-2.1/60)
Staios ***** -29 (-5.1/60)
Strudwick ** -28 (-6.1/60)

Staios w. Strudwick -27 (-7.6/60)
---

Scoring opportunities
---------------------
Smid ******* +28/-34 = -6 (-2.55/60*)
Staios ***** +64/-87 = -23 (-5.35/60*)
Strudwick ** +49/-77 = -28 (-6.49/60*)

(per 60 rates adjusted for missing STL game)
---

Errors:
-------
Smid ******* 1 (0.43/60)
Strudwick ** 6 (1.31/60)
Staios ***** 8 (1.40/60)
---

One final point about Smid: there was a big discussion a while back about how his on-ice Sv% of .981 was unsustainable. Since then that number has actually risen to a presumably-even-more-unsustainable .987 (!), while his Sh% ON is also by far a team low at just 2.9%. He may be a low-event player, but surely he can't be THAT low-event. Only three goals scored by both teams in over seven periods of even strength time is the type of stat that cannot continue long term. That said, he's clearly far lower (negative) event than Strudwick, and MacT's seeming preference for the veteran is puzzling in the here and now as well as for the future.

Pensky

2008-12-06T17:24:00.017-07:00

Over at the always-interesting and usually-civil Game Day Thread at Lowetide, yours truly has been happily eating crow about Ales Hemsky. In my defence I pointed out he really did turn the corner in early November -- about ten seconds after I published some critical remarks about Hemsky's early-season play -- but Ales has been rolling for the most part the last five weeks. As we all hoped he would.

But while I'll take the hit for being “wrong” about Hemsky over there, I think I will claim being “right” about something else in the safety of my own blog. All year long I’ve been saying the best LW for the Horcoff-Hemsky duo is one Dustin Penner, who happened to first join the line on Nov. 1 in Carolina, just as Ales was getting it together. (Coincidence? Or not?) Hemsky played real well in Carolina before finally breaking the goose egg with two spectacular goals in Philly on the 2nd and then going on a bit of a run. His linemates have changed from time to time, with Penner finding time in the dog house in between, but for the most part the 27-10-83 have played the lion's share of time as a unit.

As we first saw last Dec.-Jan., “Horpensky” have been a very effective combination, compiling some eye-popping shots data. Assuming (dangerously) that I have entered the Timeonice.com code correctly and understand the results, this tells a tale:

27-83 together:
+9/-3 = +6 goals
+72/-41 = +31 shots
+139/-79 = +60 Corsi

27 apart:
+7/-4 = +3 goals
+71/-86 = -15 shots
+152/-157 = -5 Corsi

83 apart:
+7/-10 = -3 goals
+111/-125 = -14 shots
+206/-212 = -6 Corsi

Then there's this from Hockeyanalysis.com (all numbers are GF/GA per 20):

27/83 together
+1.500/-0.643 = +0.857

27 apart
+0.817/-0.350 = +0.467

83 apart
+0.594/-0.934 = -0.340

... which is just a bit of an eye opener, isn't it?

It's important to realize that Hockeyanalysis uses strictly GF/GA, which by definition is a small sample size this early in the season. Penner has achieved better results on the scoreboard, both for and against, than either of his highly-rated linemates, but it's early. Using the larger data sets of shots and Corsi available courtesy Timeonice, both players had virtually identical numbers when apart, and both are hugely improved since they are together.

Indeed, the Horpensky unit has been dominant in recent games. Here are shots and Corsi data as well as traditional +/- for forwards over the last five games:

Player ** = Shots / Corsi / Goals

-------------------------------
Penner ****** = +16 / +41 / +2
Horcoff ***** = +14 / +30 / +3
Hemsky ****** = +11 / +35 / +3
Gagner ****** = +4 / +7 / EV
Schremp = *** = +3 / -1 / +2
Nilsson ***** = +2 / +5 / EV
Cogliano **** = +1 / +3 / +1
Pouliot ***** = 0 / -8 / EV
Brodziak **** = -1 / -4 / EV
Cole ******** = -2 / -1 / EV
Stortini **** = -4 / -11 / -1
Moreau ****** = -5 / -7 / EV
Reddox ****** = -9 / -17 / -2

Note this five-game stretch began after the series against Corsi kings Detroit. It’ll be interesting to see how we stack up against the powerhouse Sharks tonight.

Speaking of which, it’s game on. Goilers!

Stars at Oilers backstory

2008-12-03T16:14:00.007-07:00

There's good news and there's good news, I'll let you decide which is which. The one is that I'm back from a rather more productive road trip than the Oilers had, and the other is that there are now officially rocks in my head.

Better still, the hockey gods have finally answered my regular entreaties and delivered me up a pair of tickets for tonight's Dallas at Edmonton game. So this pregame blurb will be rather short, but I'll have a game report in the comments or separate post much later on.

All this should have me in a good mood, and it does. Except for these odd nagging doubts. First and foremost among them is what has happened to our third defence pairing. Guys like Steve Staios and Jason Strudwick (pictured, with puck entering wrong net) are supposed to shore up the back end and give the team steady, solid service. But there is just no way of getting past numbers like these over the past 6 games:

Date - OPP: 24 / 43
-------------------
11/17 @DET: -1 / -1
11-18 @CBJ: -1 / -1
11-20 vDET: EV / -1
11-26 vLAK: -1 / -1
11-29 @STL: -1 / -1
11-30 @DAL: -1 / -1

Simply put, these guys are getting Owned, every game. Even before this: between them, they've had 15 minus games in the last 9 Oilers games.

Veteran defencemen like Staios and Strudwick aren't necessarily supposed to win you games, but they're not supposed to lose them either. Oilers have lost three of the last four by one goal, all in regulation. Those -1s look like lost standings points to me ... in fact, the difference between a regulation tie and a 1-goal loss is actually more like 1.5 points, assuming an equal distribution of Bettman points.

It's not just on the scoreboard. Over the season, at even strength the Oilers have been outshot 158-78 with Strudwick on the ice, a staggering 2:1 ratio. If you prefer the per/60 metric, make it 38-19 in shots on goal with Strudwick on the ice. Is it any surprise they've been outscored 10-5?

In the past 6 games it has only gotten much, much worse. Oil have been outscored 6-0 with Strudwick on the ice, and outshot 48-15. I haven't done the micromath but at his season's average of 12:37 ES TOI/GP that would be in about 75 minutes of action. Egads.

But wait a minute, you say, these guys kill penalties. True enough: over the last four games, Strudwick was twice on the ice for 2 PP GA, the one-goal losses against Detroit and Dallas. Over those four games, Strudwick has amassed 9:02 SH TOI during which time the opposition has scored those four goals. Again, for those who prefer per 60 metric, that's a cool -26.6 per hour over that short period of time.

Staios is barely better. he's been outshot 176-107 on the season and 43-19 over those 6 games. He's been on for 3 PPGA in 10:40 the last four games, including the ghastly game winner by Modano late in regulation in which Steady Steve seemed to be completely unaware of the concept of passing lanes and was frozen in the ice like a big ol' meteorite.

On the PP, and on offence generally, these two guys are a complete nonentity. When they're out there, the game gets played, badly, in their zone. The team shots differential on the season is -58. Staios is -69 and Strudwick -80; with these guys on the bench, the team is positive. That's insane.

But what's really insane is this. Ladislav Smid continues to rot in the press box with occasional opportunities to ferment up on the wing. Smid has been on the ice for exactly 1 ES GA all season. Yet MacT continues to show faith in his veterans (even though technically Smid is more of a MacT vet than the Oiler newcomer Strudwick is) who are routinely on the ice for an ESGA every game.

The last log on this particular fire is the fact Strudwick was advertised as a swing man, a guy who could move up and play wing when the situation required. If one of these guys needs to play up front for 4 or 5 minutes once in a while, I sure in heck would rather it was Strudwick. Better yet, I'd rather he was shipped direct to the press box for awhile. He has not been helping the hockey club for some weeks now.

Oh well, tonight I get the four-dimensional, live view. Hopefully that view will include a #5 and not a #43, but whoever, it's GOILERS!

Enjoy the game, everybody!

Defence at the quarter pole

2008-11-26T16:34:00.008-07:00

Facts, stats, and observations about the Oilers defence corps 20 games in.

Scoring **** GP, G-A-P PPP P/GP
-------------------------------
Souray ***** 19, 7-8-15(7) 0.79
Visnovsky ** 20, 4-8-12(7) 0.60
Gilbert **** 20, 2-9-11(5) 0.55
Grebeshkov * 17, 1-7-8 (3) 0.47
---
Strudwick ** 17, 0-3-3 (0) 0.18
Staios ***** 18, 1-1-2 (0) 0.11
Smid ******** 9, 0-2-2 (0) 0.22

The Oilers rely more heavily on scoring from the back end than almost any other NHL squad. Oilers currently (thru Monday's games) feature 3 of the top 25 defence scorers in the NHL (Souray 9th, Visnovsky 19th, Gilbert 25th). All 3 rank among Oilers' top 5 scorers; only Nashville and San Jose even have 2 D in their top 5, all other teams 1 or 0. Similarly, Oilers are the only team with 4 defencemen in their top 8.

Sheldon Souray leads the Oilers in goals with 7, while no forward has managed more than 5. The other 29 NHL teams have a forward as their leading goal scorer, although in Nashville there is a tie between a D (Shea Weber) and a F (Jason Arnott).

Tom Gilbert's splits:
as of Nov 1: 10 GP, 0-1-1, -6
since Nov 1: 10 GP, 2-8-10, +3

Dennis Grebeshkov's splits:
Oct 12-Oct 18: 4 GP, 0-4-4, +3
Oct 22-Nov 9: 7 GP, 1-0-1, -8
Nov 10-Nov 20: 6 GP, 0-3-3, +3

Time on ice: Visnovsky is leaned on heavily at evens, 18:35 per game. The rest of the big four all come in right around 16 minutes, Staios 14, Strudwick and Smid 12. Visnovsky also leads the PP at a shade under 5 minutes a game, but ranks a distant 6th among penalty killers at under 1:00 per. Souray makes huge contributions to both special teams (4:45 and 3:55) and thus joins Visnovsky with 24+ minutes of total ice time. The PP has been divided 70/30 between Visnovsky/Souray and Gilbert/Grebeshkov, which is tough to argue with given both of the big money guys have earned a good reputation as a power player. It'll be interesting to see how this morphs as MacT tinkers with the pairings. It's also tough to argue with no other defenceman on the team averaging more than 0:10 PP TOI/G. Meanwhile, Staios and Souray anchor the PK, with Strudwick, Gilbert and to a lesser extent Grebs contributing appreciable time (if not results).

Special teams: On the PP so far, Souray has been The Man. He has been on the ice for 12 of the 15 5v4 goals, with an impressive +8.21/60. Visnovsky, Grebs, and Gilbert are all between 5 and 5.5. The PP is only +2.94 when Souray is OFF the ice, whereas the other guys all see the PP improve from the low +5s to +7 or 8 when they leave the ice. On the PK, Strudwick impressed until the most recent game, and still leads the way with a modest -3.03/60. Gilbert and Souray are semi-respectable around -7, but the other guys are in minus double digits per 60 which is flat out terrible. Visnovsky trails at worse than -14 ... egads.

Corsi numbers of Oilers D (even strength):
Visnovsky +21, Souray +16, Grebeshkov +10, Gilbert -6, Smid -6, Staios -67, Strudwick -82.

ZoneShift of Oilers D (even strength):
Grebeshkov +16, Souray +12, Visnovsky +10, Gilbert +1, Smid -6, Strudwick -22, Staios -28.

From these last sets of numbers it is clear that our third pairing is getting killed out there at evens. Despite the fact Strudwick has started exactly the same number plays in the offensive and defensive zones (52 each), Oilers have been outshot a staggering 134-69 with him on the ice. Staios actually has started more shifts in the offensive zone (73-64), yet the shots against are nearly as bad at 150-93. This has begun to show up on the scoreboard in recent games.

Steve Staios' splits:
First 9 games: +5
Next 9 games: -4

Jason Strudwick's splits:
First 10 games +3:
Last 7 games: -4

On the other hand, there’s this from the same source (timeonice.com):

Sv% ON: Smid .983 (in limited minutes), Strudwick .948, Staios .947, Visnovsky .941, Souray .932, Gilbert .906, Grebeshkov .904

... which suggests that perhaps the two veterans are limiting the quality of the shots they allow even as they are getting clobbered in the territorial play. The next two on the list are also veterans who have the decided advantage of creating stuff in the other end. Meanwhile Gilbert and especially Grebeshkov have been doing well in driving the play judging from the above Corsi and ZoneShift numbers, yet both are minus players because … their goalies stink? they’ve been giving up ten bell chances? The Dice Are Rattling? Yet more grist for the Corsi/shots/shot quality debate that has been a recurring – and fascinating – theme of the Oilogosphere since I’ve been around and before. At this point I have concluded nothing more than the answer lies somewhere in the middle between quantity and quality, and neither can be trusted on their own to tell the whole story.

The Oilers' current group makes an interesting case study towards this discussion which I will continue to follow with interest.

Kings @ Oilers backstory

2008-11-26T12:02:00.005-07:00

Objects in the mirror are much closer than they appear, with the Kings just 1 point behind the Oilers after 20 GP. L.A. has a slightly superior goal differential (-5 to -9) rooted in better special teams play: both teams have scored 17 powerplay goals, but the Kings have allowed just 15 PPG, the Oilers a whopping 24.

Interesting to look beyond goals to shots differential. The Kings have outshot their opponents in 15 of 20 games, the Oilers in just 5 of 20. The Kings are averaging 27.8 shots per game, the Oil 27.6, but in the defensive zone the difference is stark: 24.8 shots allowed by the Kings, a spectacular number; and 33.2 against the Oil, a spectacularly bad number. Oilers rank 28th in the league in shots allowed, ahead of just Florida and Tampa Bay. The Kings, meanwhile, ranked 28th last year; this year they rank an astonishing first overall in the National Hockey League, 0.9 shots per game better than San Jose and 2.2 shots clear of the rest of the league. (I had to check that on two different sites before I believed it!)

All of this must be put in the context that the Oilers have played the fewest home games in the NHL and the Kings the fewest road games. So they've had friendlier crowds, friendlier match-ups, and very possibly friendlier shot counters on their side. Nonetheless, it's a promising start for the young Kings and their new-but-old coach, Terry Murray.

Kings' problem seems to be at the back end of the roster: Matt Moulson -4, Peter Harrold -4, Brian Boyle -7, Tom Preissing -7, Raitis Ivanans -8, Derek Armstrong -8, Denis Gauthier -8.

Up front: Kings have 3 forwards (Dustin Brown, Alex Frolov, Jarret Stoll) with 6 or more goals, which is 3 more than the Oilers have. Anze Kopitar, Patrick O'Sullivan, Michal Handzus and 19-year-old Oscar Moller bring an attack that is fairly balanced across three lines.

On the blue: L.A.'s top 4 defenders in TOI are all plus players: Doughty 23:18, +5; Quincey 22:02, +3; O'Donnell 21:22, +2; Greene 18:59, +1. All four are playing 16-17 minutes ES TOI per game; the other guys are 12 minutes or less but are getting lit up.

Between the pipes: For all the LaBarbera Love in the 'sphere, the emerging goalie in LaLaLand appears to be Erik Ersberg, who for the second straight year has significantly superior percentages to LaBarbera in Pts%, GAA, and Sv%:

2007-08: GP, Pts%, GAA , Sv%
-----------------------------
Ersberg: 14, .545, 2.48, .927
LaBar'a: 45, .429, 3.00, .910

2008-09: GP, Pts%, GAA, Sv%
-----------------------------
Ersberg: 12, .545, 2.32, .898
LaBar'a: 11, .389, 3.06, .884

Interesting to see how their Sv% plummet as the team reduces shots allowed. But that's a discussion for another day.

Ex-Oiler watch: Jarret (Minus Touch) Stoll has been on the ice for 9 ES GF, just 3 GA: on a per/60 basis that translates to +2.49/-0.83. Is this the same player that posted +1.51/-3.09 with the Oil last year? On the PK unit he hasn't been on the ice for a single goal against in close to 40 minutes TOI. Surprisingly his least contribution is on the PP where he is clearly second unit.

Matt Greene (pictured) just seems to be tooling along, his "offensive" totals a pretty typical 20 GP, 0-3-3, but so far he's keeping his head above water with +2.32/-2.13. Last night in the Kings 6-2 loss in Calgary, Greene posted an assist, +1, with 3 blocks, 2 hits, 1 shot, and 0 penalties in 19:58 TOI. I watched a chunk of that game and Matt was one of the few Kings who played well. Oiler fans will salivate at the memory of Greene's flaws, but I suspect we'll notice a different aspect of his game when he's dressed in opposition silks, namely that the big lug just gets in the way an awful lot.

Keys: Playing with five days' rust it is essential that the Oilers are up to the early tempo against an opponent on the back end of back-to-backs. Oilers should have the energy advantage at the back end of the game.

An interesting comp

2008-11-24T16:28:00.024-07:00

If there are two things I have learned on the Oilogosphere, they are that 1) Kevin Lowe screwed up by trading Chris Pronger for magic beans, and 2) Kevin Lowe screwed up by signing Sheldon Souray as an unrestricted free agent a year later.

After a little more horse-trading the magic beans roughly translate into Ladi Smid, Riley Nash, and Jordan Eberle with a dash of Erik Cole. Meanwhile the cost of obtaining Souray was zero assets, just a contract. A hefty one, but we got to keep our beans.

But let’s forget those peripheral advantages of the deals -- not to mention the fact that Sheldon Souray wants to play in Edmonton and Chris Pronger doesn't -- and simply focus on the two principals. Oilers signed Pronger to a 5-year, $31 MM contract extension in 2005, and Souray to a 5-year, $27 MM UFA deal in 2007. Both were entering their 31-year-old season. Market forces aside, that’s similar enough money that shouldn’t it be reasonable to expect similar performance? But, but, but, the experts scoffed, Sheldon Souray isn’t half the player Chris Pronger is.

After an injury plagued 2007-08 that did nothing to quiet the critics, Souray has jumped out of the gate in ’08-09 with a solid stretch of hockey. Pronger, meanwhile, has rebounded somewhat from a subpar and suspension-spoiled season with what seems to be typically solid play. So for the first time since the deals, we can actually make an on-ice comparison. At the quarter-pole it’s an exceedingly interesting one:

CFP **** Vitals ***** SS
------------------------
34 ****** Age ******* 32
6’6 **** Height **** 6’4
213 **** Weight **** 233

Souray is two years younger, but with a more extensive injury history. Both are large men.

CFP * Boxcar stats ** SS
------------------------
22 ******* GP ******* 19
4 ******** G ********* 7
10 ******* A ********* 8
14 ******* P ******** 15
+2 ****** +/- ******* +2
32 ****** PiM ******* 30

Pronger has played all 22 Ducks games, Souray 18.5 of the Oilers 20, but their boxcar numbers are very similar. Pronger is more of a playmaker, Souray a finisher, both as advertised.

CFP * Scoring splits* SS
------------------------
3-3-6 **** ESP *** 2-5-7
1-6-7 **** PPP *** 4-3-7
0-1-1 **** SHP *** 1-0-1

Virtually identical production in all three situations. Souray’s threat as a goal scorer on the PP is borne out here.

CFP **** Icetime **** SS
------------------------
25:58 ** TOI/G *** 24:54
17:17 * ES TOI/G * 16:13
4:01 ** SH TOI/G ** 3:55
4:40 ** PP TOI/G ** 4:45

Virtually identical on both special teams. Pronger plays 1 minute a game more at evens. Historically Pronger has played much more than Souray, but after peaking at 30:14 a game in 1999-2000 he has gradually scaled back to 26:00 in 2007-08. Souray meanwhile has seen his ice time gradually rise from ~20:00 when he first came to Montreal to 23:11 his last year there and 24:21 his abbreviated first year here. The gap continues to narrow this early season.

CFP ***** RTSS ****** SS
------------------------
61 ***** Shots ****** 63
6.6% **** Sh% **** 11.1%
31 ****** MsS ******* 31
25 ****** Hits ****** 17
33 ****** BkS ******* 14
10 ****** GvA ******** 9
14 ****** TkA ******* 11

Shots and missed shots a dead heat. Souray with the higher Sh%, of course. Pronger leads in “defensive points” (hits + shot blocks), but has played 13 home games to Souray’s 5 in front of a friendly local counter; still, the edge has to go to Pronger in measurable defensive contribution. Both have very similar GvA/TkA stats.

CFP *BehindtheNet.ca* SS
------------------------
-0.03 * QualComp * -0.01
-0.03 * QualTeam * +0.32
+2.18 * GF ON/60 * +2.33
-1.84 * GA ON/60 * -2.12
+9.90 * PP +-/60 * +8.95
-8.73 * PK +-/60 * -8.13

Again, very little to choose here with the obvious exception of QualTeam. I have to say of all the New Statistics that is the one that is giving me the most trouble this early season with its rapid fluctuations. So much so that I queried Gabe Desjardins a while back; he responded: “qualcomp is a lot bigger at the beginning of the year due to huge variations in performance that narrow quite quickly as the year goes on”. However, it must be pointed out that Souray has played most of the season with Lubo Visnovsky, while according to BtN, Pronger played the first month with the likes of Nathan McIver and Bret Hedican. I haven't been following the Ducks, but Carlyle's tendencies have been to run Pronger and Niedermayer both at right defence at evens so that at a given time one of them is likely on the ice. MacT runs his bench differently, but has switched up pairings in the last week or so.

Both players have excellent results on the PP, not so great on the PK, but the difference between the two is positive in both cases; their combined effect on special teams is roughly +1/60.

CFP * Timeonice.com * SS
------------------------
+8 **** Shots +- **** -8
+2 *** Fenwick +- *** +2
+15 *** Corsi +- *** +16
6.7% *** Sh% ON *** 7.8%
.929 *** Sv% ON *** .932
-25 *** ZoneShift ** +12

These are all team results with that player on the ice. There’s damn little to choose, Oilers have a better Sh% with Souray on the ice, but Souray seems to be a better shooter than Pronger, so maybe that is to be expected. The ZoneShift is a term recently coined by Vic Ferrari, and refers to the location of faceoffs starting and during a players’ shift vs. those at the end of the shift. In Souray’s case he starts slightly more plays in his own zone and ends slightly more in the offensive zone, a pretty good indicator that play is flowing at least somewhat in Oilers’ favour when he is out there. Pronger starts way more often in the offensive zone for some reason, and ends his shift there considerably less often, suggesting a flow of play against the Ducks.

CFP *Contract status* SS
------------------------
$6.25 MM Cap Hit $5.4 MM
1.75 Seasons to run 3.75

Oh yeah, the bottom line: Souray has a somewhat lower cap hit, and is locked up for two years longer than Pronger, which is either good or bad depending on your opinion of Souray. My own opinion is that Pronger is the better player, but parsing all the above, statistically there’s been precious little to choose between the two in the first quarter.

I will follow this comp with some interest as the season proceeds. It’s early days for many of these types of stats, but so far it’s tough to argue there’s much to choose between the old 44 and the new one. If Visnovsky is out a while that could change things, although Souray has been playing with Gilbert of late anyway, with no apparent drop-off in his effectiveness.

While I had higher expectations of Sheldon than many, I am still pleasantly surprised by how solidly he has contributed to this point. This favourable comparison to one of the elite defenders in the game only reinforces that.

Anniversaries VII: Heritage Classic -- Saturday

2008-11-22T16:03:00.019-07:00

Five years ago this weekend Edmonton hosted the NHL’s first outdoor game. This lifelong fan was one of 57,167 people in attendance that day, but my experiences over thathockey weekend were in some ways entirely unique. I think it’s a story worth (re)telling. Part 2 of 2 follows.

Saturday, November 22, 2003. I had really wanted to go to the Heritage Classic from the day it was announced. An historic occasion for a self-styled hockey historian who has already experienced first-hand more than his share. Yet all fall I had done nothing about it, not even entering the lottery as the ticket requests piled into the Oilers' office by the hundreds of thousands. I can't really afford it, I rationalized, but maybe something will just fall into my lap. Somehow I remained sanguine, strangely confident that somehow it would work out. When Val told me about the CBC contest, I just knew I would win -- and typically I'm a "glass-half-empty" type when it comes to foretelling the future. Even when I was down to the equivalent of pulling my goalie in the trivia game, I maintained my composure. I felt that the contest was for people just like me: the hockey-is-in-my-blood fans who could say "Thanks for the memories" and actually remember. So I felt I deserved to win those tickets and somehow justice would prevail. Of course, my end of the bargain would be to share my experience with those who might share my passion if not my luck on this occasion.

Came the day, and I awoke with said tickets having miraculously materialized only hours earlier. Game day temperature hovered between -16 and -20° C., with a "freshening" breeze from the SE. The promise of a warm-and-fuzzy experience was sure to be challenged on at least one front. Specifically, a cold front. But in a way I welcomed the cold as a factor which would make the occasion more memorable, an Outdoors-in-Canadian-Winter experience.

While the Oilers first NHL game -- whose ticket stub paved the way to this one -- was held on my birthday, the Heritage Classic itself was held on my wife's. (Some would call this a sign.) Unselfish person and loving mother that she is -- not to mention practical about the Great Outdoors in Friggin' November -- she graciously passed on her opportunity so that our son could attend, and spent "her" day mostly alone. She had seen hundreds of games with me in the glory years, and was happy to remember "the boys" as they were. Kevin, meanwhile, had heard the stories (more than once, in some cases) but never saw the team with his own eyes, the Gretzky sale having been completed in his first year.

Kevin and I prepared like tens of thousands of others for an extended outdoor stint. With my cold-weather night-time observing experience and collected layers of clothing, perhaps I was better prepared than many: briefs, thermal socks, two pairs wool socks, two full pairs of longjohns, outer pants, turtleneck, two hoodies, snowmobile suit, Oiler sweater, parka, Sorel boots, wool gloves covered by heavy wool gunner mitts, neck warmer, thick black cloth baseball hat, four hoods, sleeping bag. A thermos of hot coffee for me and of cider for Kevin, and off we trundled like a pair of Michelin Men to the Park'N'Ride. After a few nervous moments outside the stadium seeing a huge line-up awaiting security, I found that they were passing people through very efficiently indeed, and we were able to find out seats just as they began to introduce the so-called megastars. Perfect timing.

Commonwealth Stadium was the place to be that cold November Saturday, providing an interesting perspective on a few things. Seen at a greater distance than I'm used to -- and make no mistake, these were relatively excellent seats on Row 44, just below the underhang -- the games had a surreal element. I saw it as an event, whereas usually my attention is entirely focussed on the action between the boards.

What an event it was! It had a very Winter Carnival-type feel. I have been to many dozens of games in Commonwealth Stadium, starting with the Games themselves, but I have never, ever been there in the winter. Do we really just leave it sit there unused for half the year?

The experience of watching the timeworn rituals of hockey in the familiar-yet-strange setting of Commonwealth Stadium was like a dream, where context twisted into bizarre visions of unreality. The usual green floor of Commonwealth was replaced by a broad valley of brilliantly-lit white; an island ice rink surrounded by a lake of snow. While utterly appropriate to the occasion of the first outdoor game, the "lake" seemed to act as a buffer between the fans and the participants; seen at an odd, flattish angle the ice surface was seemingly suspended in space, the standard setting of spectators in surround-sound seats strangely sequestered. And my normally sharp sense of time was skewed in mysterious ways, as the utterly modern merged with the ageless.

The challenges of playing outdoors were as old as the game itself, yet utterly new to most of the participants. While a record audience of nearly 3 million viewers watched innovative camera angles on Hockey Night in Canada's first high-definition TV broadcast, to us in the distant stands the action was difficult to follow, the puck the size of a pixel when it was visible at all. One learned to follow it by the context of the play and the players; if, for example, Eric Brewer was skating in a certain direction, one could be sure the puck was going in another.

But all that said, the stands were the place to be, where one could observe the action unfolding live in something close to four dimensions, no matter how strangely warped. From that perspective one could focus less on the hockey game and reflect on Hockey, the Game. Or as Peter Gzowski put it, the Game of Our Lives. The patterns, the passing, the pounding, the poise-under-pressure, the performance art, the passion play.

In many ways the fans were the big story. Layered up as we were, we wedged ourselves together like rowsful of Dave Hunters. Not everybody stuck it out for the whole six hours, but a significant majority did. It was a wonderful celebration of the game of hockey, and simply of being Canadian. One just had to listen to the 57,000-voice Commonwealth Stadium Choir's heartfelt rendition of "O Canada" to recognize that. Normally a reluctant participant in flag-waving and territory-marking, I was surprised to hear my own voice rising to join the throng.

Back to the surreal: the legends game in particular had a dream-like quality, with the perception of both time and space seemingly distorted. For one thing it was a low-scoring game, hardly an Oiler trademark. For all that I had seen the core of the 80s Oilers play some 500 live games, they appeared for this one in their unfamiliar road blues. The Canadiens were wearing a weird sort of photonegative of the famed bleu, blanc, et rouge which made number identification almost impossible. I could see on the big screen suspended on a giant crane at the south end, that the sweaters sported the familiar "CH" (for "Classique Heritage"?).

But with due respect to the greatest franchise in the NHL's long history, it was not the Habs most of us had gone to see. Too many of les anciens glorieux are unfortunately a little more anciens than glorieux. They dominated the league for decades by passing the torch from one generation to the next. Many of the greats have long since died, some famously during their playing days (Georges Vézina, Howie Morenz), some famously in retirement (Rocket Richard), others in obscurity (Doug Harvey, Toe Blake). The majority of living greats are simply too old to participate in an event like this. Their last great team was a quarter century ago, a fully mature group of stars mostly in their 30s at a time that Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier were hitting the pro ranks in the World Hockey Association at the tender age of 17. Unlike the Habs, the Oilers developed all of their great players almost simultaneously, with the entire core of stars being within a couple of years in age. Today, this meant in their young 40s, far younger than almost all of Montreal's legends.

The view of my old favourites was refracted by the prism of time which had eroded their skills today, but which shone in my mind like yesterday. I couldn't read their numbers easily either, but had no trouble identifying any of them through posture, skating stride, mannerisms. I'm sure I could identify Lee Fogolin coming off the bench during a stoppage at 1000 yards: the stooped shoulders and laboured but purposeful stride are still unmistakable.

Familiar plays and patterns occasionally emerged, albeit in slow motion as hard-won muscle memory fought aging legs and a puck in serious need of retraining. For every change on the fly, there was the new Oilers' right defenceman trying to hustle across to his side of the ice to defend against yet another odd-man rush; and boy, do I remember nights like that. No mistaking Paul Coffey making the big turn at his own blueline, his powerful cross-over strides morphing from backwards to lateral to full-steam-ahead, taking a pass in full stride, blasting though the neutral zone and wide on the overmatched defenceman before making a backhand centring pass which barely failed; the puck turned over but Coffey had already used his considerable momentum to round the net and glide effortlessly back into defensive position. Obviously that was Wayne Gretzky hunching over the puck for the exactly correct number of milliseconds before (trying to) unselfishly dishing it off to the man in the best position. Only Glenn Anderson could lean at that impossible angle, defying the laws of gravity while taking the puck on the shortest path to the goalmouth. That had to be Charlie Huddy making a shrewd neutral zone pinch, causing a turnover and taking advantage of his position and momentum to lumber along the right boards as the fourth man on the rush, take another pass, dish it off, duck back to the point. There was Randy Gregg, tall and poised, making a crisp breakout pass; and there was Kevin Lowe, tall and poised, making another. To some they may have looked as similar as two tall pine trees, but to me who has seen each of them make the same play literally thousands of times, they were as unique as my own brothers.

While many "experts" in the (eastern) media viewed Mark Messier's participation as frivolous or worse, fact is Oilers would have been incomplete without the presence of perhaps their most dominant personality. So what if he was still an active player? To me it was the night-in night-out grind with the Rangers at the age of 42 that's the anomaly, not playing with his old buddies who have played out the string in a more conventional time frame. And for an original WHA fan like myself, in Oiler silks Messier embodied the only surviving remnants of the old league; by 2003 the Edmonton native was the only active NHL player who played in the WHA, and the Oilers its only remaining team.

There were of course, several retirees in the game who played in the WHA: Gretzky, Semenko, Chipperfield, Hunter, Linseman, Gingras, Napier, to name a few. But as usual, the Oilers chose to bury that part of their history without a trace. I don't understand it.

As for the Habs, they played hard, and they played well. But beyond Lafleur, Robinson, Lapointe, and Shutt, many of the big names were missing: no Gainey, no Cournoyer, no Savard, no Dryden, to name a few stalwarts of the last great Habs team of the late 1970s. The roster was sprinkled with Stanley Cup champions from the "fluke" Cups of 1986 and '93, good teams with great goaltending. The masked face of that team, Patrick Roy, was nowhere to be seen, but there was no shortage of solid but uncompelling skaters like Carbonneau, Muller, Ludwig, Pepé Lemieux. The Habs did what those Habs always did, play positional hockey to close down space and time on the puck carrier. Not exactly the "firewagon hockey" for which the Habs once were revered, more like the "starve the fire before it catches hockey" of the modern NHL. So in a way they were the exact wrong opponent to let the Oilers put on a show. Time after time a still-imaginative Oiler passing play would die just before the finishing shot.

The view of the ice was further distorted by shimmering haloes of exhaled air around the players' heads, nature's elements in an unnaturally natural setting. Occasionally the puck would crack against the boards in a distinctly outdoors sort of way, and one had to remind oneself that these were some of the greatest athletes this city, this country, this game has ever seen, playing shinny on a cold Saturday afternoon in November. They were having a ball, and so were we in the stands. To see them pick up the ice scrapers between periods teleported me to the neighbourhood rink with my seven-year-old son, or as a seven-year-old myself, holding the handle of the shovel under my chin, trying to keep up with my brothers in the crisp air of Tipton Park. No doubt other minds wandered to more distant eras and lakes and rivers of a truly timeless, Canadian pastime.

A personal highlight was attending with my son. Kevin loved to play the game but is ambivalent about watching it. It might be the fastest team sport in the world, but it's positively glacial compared to video games. And my teenager's usual response rate is about one grunt per four questions asked. But midway through the megastars game, right out of the clear cold blue, Kevin volunteered "This is just great!" And beamed as only he can, right through the neck warmer.

A few other snapshots from the day's activities will stand the test of time. As an erstwhile goalie, I will cherish a couple provided by the custodians of the cord cottage. One was a remarkable period of shutout hockey provided by the recent Hockey Hall of Fame inductee Grant Fuhr, capped by a lightning quick glove grab of a rocket off the still-formidable stick of Stephane Richer. The replay on the big screen was perhaps the day's defining moment for TV viewers: the modern net cam view of Fuhr in classic hockey card pose, silhouetted against a crisp blue sky. The other was Jose Théodore's toque, a practical fashion statement which for this hockey fan made yet another link across time. In 2002 Théodore became the second Habs' goalie to win the Hart Trophy. The first, 40 years earlier in the season before I started to watch hockey, was noted worrywart Jacques Plante, who famously used to knit toques as a stress reliever. Legend does not relate whether he actually wore one in an NHL game, but on this special day his spirit lived on.

The regular "league game" was something of an anti-climax to the megastars, because in many respects it was just another game. Historic, to be sure, and interesting to watch the players deal with the challenges, but I found I had to work rather harder than usual to follow the game at the intellectual level. Two points were on the line, but who won or lost was ultimately unimportant. A lesson which I am still learning at this advanced stage of my life.

Was it perfect? Certainly not. The utter lack of crowd control made the concourse a seething (in more ways than one) mass of humanity, where the destination eventually became a not-so-simple return to one's seat, leaving one to contemplate alternative uses of an empty thermos. The main game could have been better, and had a happier outcome for the frozen faithful. The Oilers megastars could have won 7-5, not 2-0. Jaroslav Pouzar could have been there. Don Cherry could have been booed off the field, or at least greeted with stony silence. (Some dreams remain forever beyond reach.)

And there were omissions. If they'd put me in charge, I would have added a final touch: to announce the home town in the introduction of every player and in both games, from Edmonton to Espoo, St. John's to St. Petersburg. This would have served as eloquent testimony that the Game of Our Lives is proudly Canadian in origin but now stretches 'round the globe at those latitudes where ice forms naturally.

The dreamlike state in which I experienced this event was entirely appropriate. In earlier, happier days, it had been the dream of a lifetime for a die-hard hockey fan to witness first-hand such a team as the 1980s Edmonton Oilers, without doubt the most exciting team in NHL history, featuring the greatest genius to ever play the game. To have this one last chance to see them make history yet again was for me, what the chance to play together may have been for them.

Anniversaries VI: Heritage Classic -- Friday

2008-11-21T19:59:00.013-07:00