tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post2559070778934190042..comments2023-06-16T08:16:44.247-07:00Comments on Oil Droppings: Smid: sink? or swim? Some stats to set the stageBrucehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post-1603568593765334422008-11-07T18:19:00.000-07:002008-11-07T18:19:00.000-07:00Robert: Nice catch, I remember that now that you m...Robert: Nice catch, I remember that now that you mention it, and yes I would call that a cup o' coffee, even if he didn't get any game action. <BR/><BR/>Meaning Ryan Sittler was the <B><I>only</I></B> Top 10 draft pick in <B><I>25 years</I></B> to never dress for an NHL game. Which is pretty amazing when you think about it.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post-78662219584765298472008-11-07T16:27:00.000-07:002008-11-07T16:27:00.000-07:00Brent Krahn suited up for the Calgary Flames for 5...Brent Krahn suited up for the Calgary Flames for 5 play-off games starting April 22, 2007. He didn't get any ice-time, but I'm sure he had a cup of coffee.Robert Vollmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08275044623767553681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post-50635636687043212402008-10-29T13:55:00.000-07:002008-10-29T13:55:00.000-07:00Good job.Thanks, Tangotiger, and welcome!So, it wo...<I>Good job.</I><BR/><BR/>Thanks, Tangotiger, and welcome!<BR/><BR/><I>So, it would seem to me that you want the clock to start ticking at age 20.</I> <BR/><BR/>Exactly. When I wrote:<BR/><B>"Thus the UFA clock begins ticking when the player graduates from junior, whether he is in the AHL or NHL"</B><BR/>... I was referring primarily (if not specifically) to 20-year-old graduating juniors, at which age the AHL option becomes available to most (Smid being an exception). At that point 7 years is 7 years, so why wait?<BR/><BR/><I>This way, you get him at age 26, 27, and not 18, 19.</I><BR/><BR/>Yes and no. "Yes" when it comes to negotiating rights, but often if not usually "no" in reality where teams mostly lock up their own for the long term. Thus they get 18, 19 <B><I>and</I></B> 26, 27. A team like Toronto has to be confident they will be able to keep Luke Schenn under contract for as long as they want him, so it then becomes a question of what's in the short-term benefit of the player and the organization. Will Schenn make the Leafs better this year? Will he be a better player next year by having played in the NHL this year?? Will he be two steps further ahead at 20 fluttering as a Leaf instead of flying as a Rocket??? <BR/><BR/>:D<BR/><BR/>If the answer to those quetsions is "probably, yes", then the only competitive reason to hold him back might be to insulate him from a losing environment. <BR/><BR/>On the financial side, the team's capologist has to figure out how much more expensive those 26 and 27 years might be: the price of experience. Given the CBA itself will have expired before then, it may well not matter a whole hell of a lot. <BR/><BR/>And on the marketing side, having a guy like Schenn or Sam Gagner flashing his potential under the bright lights sells legitimate hope in the future, an essential ingredient for any rebuilding club. My motto -- well, one of them -- as a fan is "Youth movement? Show me." <BR/><BR/>On the other hand, if he's Jay Bouwmeester and his team is still losing by the time he's 25, maybe it's just better for both player and organization to go their separate ways and start over. The team has obviously got other pressing needs for that cap space, and the current formula, Bouwmeester and all, isn't quite cutting it.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post-75819850211753436992008-10-29T12:12:00.000-07:002008-10-29T12:12:00.000-07:00Good job.If you start off at 18, you are UFA at 25...Good job.<BR/><BR/>If you start off at 18, you are UFA at 25. If you are 19, then 26. If you are 20, 21, 22, 23, then UFA at 27.<BR/><BR/>So, it would seem to me that you want the clock to start ticking at age 20. This way, you get him at age 26, 27, and not 18, 19.Tangotigerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11864323151591103655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post-29968038734607201302008-10-01T13:12:00.000-06:002008-10-01T13:12:00.000-06:00Jonathan: I agree third pairing is still best, and...Jonathan: I agree third pairing is still best, and we got the depth to cover that. <BR/><BR/>At least Smid got one full year in the AHL, which even as an underage probably did him more good than a year of junior. That's one more year of minor-league ice time than many of the other hotshots from their respective draft classes.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post-26152393168213123922008-10-01T07:21:00.000-06:002008-10-01T07:21:00.000-06:00It's a nice post Bruce. I've thought it was a hug...It's a nice post Bruce. I've thought it was a huge mistake to start smid two seasons ago; he should have been getting his feet wet last season, but that ship has sailed, and he's a good fit for a regular spot.<BR/><BR/>Outside the top-4.Jonathan Willishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13939434026697781276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post-78121653267440068642008-10-01T02:29:00.000-06:002008-10-01T02:29:00.000-06:00Nice post Bruce, it was a good read.Nice post Bruce, it was a good read.kingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03606739495505042320noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post-12031771595643004822008-09-30T12:26:00.000-06:002008-09-30T12:26:00.000-06:00I agreed, this comparison stuff is less reliable i...I agreed, this comparison stuff is less reliable in hockey, and is more of an aid to observation.<BR/><BR/>I mean, just by watching Smid we can see a kid who has so many tools -- size, skating, stickhandling -- and that should tell us he has a future, if he can calm down a bit and read the game better, play with more confidence passing the puck, the kinds of things that come with experience. But it's nice to see the numbers mesh with those observations.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>I'd have to go back and look more closely how James did his comparables. I'm going by memory, 20 years ago.dstapleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04778771114265145395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post-67462532521113310122008-09-30T11:22:00.000-06:002008-09-30T11:22:00.000-06:00I believe it was Bill James who really got into th...<I>I believe it was Bill James who really got into the use of comparables, and his method was to look at all kind of players, and find one or two who really matched up, then compare the careers. One thing he didn't have to factor in much, though, was the style of a player and the role of that player on the team.</I><BR/><BR/>David: I'm a disciple of Bill James myself; his Baseball Abstracts of the 1980s taught me a huge amount about not just baseball but the science, and the art, of interpreting statistics. <BR/><BR/><I>What I mean is, all second basemen have pretty much the exact same job, and it doesn't matte if you're 150 pounds or 225 pounds, you just have to field the ball and hit the ball. So you can compare big guys, little guys, smooth guys, choppy guys, doesn't matter. You just look at their results and compare them.</I><BR/><BR/>I'd be willing to bet that the 150 pounders have different results from the 225 pounders. And whilst all second basemen have pretty much the exact same job <B>in the field</B>, their contribution on the offensive side of the game can be entirely different. One 2B could be a singles-hitting, base-stealing OBP fiend and another could be a slugger. Or both, if he's Joe Morgan. <BR/><BR/>James of course had many columns of statistics in doing his comparables and tried to match up as many of them as possible to find similar players. As I recall he would go across positions; Cal Ripken, say, might have no comparison at shortstop but his batting stats would compare to a slugging first baseman like Eddie Murray. As a "good hitting shortstop" Ripken would have more value; as a <B>hitter</B> maybe things aren't so cut and dried. <BR/><BR/>In hockey of course there are not that many columns of statistics, especially ones that measure the Smids and Saleis of the league in any sort of a meaningful way. Therefore such comparisons are often steeped more in observation and less on data. It's less reliable, but in a sport that can't easily be measured in discrete "events", we don't have much choice.Brucehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01190620732067746768noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-648556457874572949.post-82043163394765782642008-09-30T09:56:00.000-06:002008-09-30T09:56:00.000-06:00Bruce, I've been thinking about the use of compara...Bruce, I've been thinking about the use of comparables for this kind of study, and I want to run a few things by you.<BR/><BR/>I believe it was Bill James who really got into the use of comparables, and his method was to look at all kind of players, and find one or two who really matched up, then compare the careers. One thing he didn't have to factor in much, though, was the style of a player and the role of that player on the team.<BR/><BR/>What I mean is, all second basemen have pretty much the exact same job, and it doesn't matte if you're 150 pounds or 225 pounds, you just have to field the ball and hit the ball. So you can compare big guys, little guys, smooth guys, choppy guys, doesn't matter. You just look at their results and compare them.<BR/><BR/>In hockey, though, not all defenders have the same role. A small guy almost always plays a much different kind of game than a big guy. They have different roles. For instance, one guy might be physical, the other guy a finesse player, and that will have an impact on their longevity.<BR/><BR/>So when I do these comparisons, I've come to think it's best -- crucial in fact -- to compare only apples with apples. Actually to compare only Gala apples with Gala apples, not Gala with Macs.<BR/><BR/>So in looking at how Smid might perform in the long term, I would be looking for guys who were kinda big and kinda fast, kinda physical and kinda good with the puck, guys who broke in really young, guys who were top picks, guys who were minus players in their first few years. <BR/><BR/>If we zero in on those 10 or 15 guys from, say, 1980 to 1997 (so we can look at pretty much full careers) that might give us a good idea. Or if we just want to see how quick these young guys turn it around, we can look at players right up until the 2002 or 2003 drafts.<BR/><BR/>In any case, I've seen LT and Tyler do some comparables work, and I've done some, and that's where I've ended up, that it's crucial to compare only sports cars with sports car, SUVs with SUVs, tanks with tanks.dstapleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04778771114265145395noreply@blogger.com